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Effects on the generics market 63
Medicare 63
Medicaid 63
Pay-for-delay changes 64
Effects on drug promotion 64
Compliance burden rising 66
Volume increase to drive contract manufacturing 67
Chapter 4 Future trends and outlook 68
Summary 68
Introduction 69
Regulatory environment 69
Changes at the CMS 69
Medicare 69
Effects on R&D 70
Program prioritization 71
Cures Acceleration Network 71
Coverage of clinical trial costs 73
Tax credits/grants for small companies 73
Increasing importance of effectiveness 73
Private health insurance market changes 75
Transparency is the new watchword 77
Conclusions 77
Appendix 79
Primary research methodology 79
Business Insights healthcare reform model 79
Industry fees 79
Biosimilars 79
Doughnut hole discounts 79
Medicaid rebates 79
US market projections 80
Doughnut hole upside 80
Increase due to extra insured parties 80
Glossary 81
Bibliography 82
Table of figuresFigure 1: Healthcare reform timeline, 1912-2010 17
Figure 2: Healthcare spend as a percentage of GDP, 2008 20
Figure 3: US healthcare providers by ownership status 28
Figure 4: Key stakeholders of the US healthcare system 29
Figure 5: Age profile of the insured and uninsured in the US, 2008 31
Figure 6: Private health insurance applicants refused cover by age (%), 2008 32
Figure 7: Medicare Part D benefits and out-of-pocket expenses, 2010 40
Figure 8: Medicare Part D benefits and out-of-pocket expenses, 2020 41
Figure 9: Pay-for-delay deals, 2006-2010 48
Figure 10: Increase in number of insured people (m), 2010-2019 53
Figure 11: US pharma market with and without healthcare reform ($bn), 2010-2019 56
Figure 12: Branded and generic market share in the US by
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