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Express Scripts Announces Revised 2011 Financial Guidance
Date:10/6/2011

total adjusted claims (as defined in the attached Appendix).  Claims growth occurs primarily as a result of three factors:

  • Utilization growth, which accounts for increases in claims on a per member basis.  Historically utilization has generally increased in the range of 3% to 5% per year.  However, it can be impacted by, among other factors, overall economic conditions as individuals elect whether to fill or renew their prescriptions, and by an overall aging population.
  • Organic growth, which is based upon the number of members covered by plan sponsor clients.  This number is also impacted by economic conditions as employers reduce or expand their workforce.
  • Growth in net new clients, which reflects net results with respect to new client wins, client renewals and terminations.

As part of Express Scripts' original adjusted earnings per share guidance for fiscal year 2011, the Company indicated that total adjusted claims were expected to be in the range of 750 to 780 million.  In determining this estimate, the Company assumed that aggregate growth in claims with respect to fiscal year 2011 as compared to fiscal year 2010, resulting from utilization increases and organic growth, would be approximately 3.5%, offset by various factors, with only nominal growth during the first and second quarters, increased growth beginning in the third quarter, and higher growth in the fourth quarter.  These assumptions were based in significant part on the Company's belief that improving economic conditions would lead to improvements in utilization and organic growth by the end of 2011.  At mid-year, while it was becoming more apparent that economic conditions might not be improving as anticipated, Express Scripts still believed that some level of improvement in the economy, together with new client starts in the second half of the year, would mitigate the impact of lower than
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SOURCE Express Scripts, Inc.
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