LONDON, Dec. 10, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Edison's ADR outlook note, Orphan opportunities, highlights that 2014 could be transformative for GW as its pipeline delivers important clinical milestones. GW's acceleration of orphan programmes in childhood epilepsy (Epidiolex) and primary brain cancer (THC:CBD combination) should generate clinical data and Phase II starts for both indications. In addition, the company's lead programme, Sativex, is approaching key value inflection points including Phase III cancer pain data (Q414) and the US Phase III start in MS spasticity (H214).
Edison's healthcare team forecasts peak sales for Epidiolex in Dravet syndrome (DS) of $288m, THC/CBD (GBM) of $246m and GWP42004 (type 2 diabetes) of $1,025m. It projects Sativex peak sales potential of $814m – MS Spasticity at $278m (US $176m, ex-US $102m) and cancer pain at $536m (US $350m, ex-US $186m).
Edison's revised DCF valuation is $715m, or $48.30 per ADR, following the inclusion of R&D pipeline programmes. Positive data from physician-led studies of Epidiolex (mid-2014 onwards) would see the DCF rise to $818m or $55.30/ADR. Positive Sativex Phase III data in cancer pain (late 2014) would see the DCF rise further to $867m or $58.60/ADR. GW's remaining R&D programmes (epilepsy, ulcerative colitis and schizophrenia) offer pure upside to Edison's valuation.
For the full report see: www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/company/GW-Pharmaceuticals
About Edison Investment Research This continued ADR coverage on GW Pharmaceuticals is part of a programme of research coverage on pharmaceutical companies exposed to global market opportunities. Edison provides detailed research on more than 150 pharmaceutical and healthcare companies in Europe, North America,
SOURCE Edison Investment Research
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