E7: The Outlook for Pharmaceutica... (and government participation in immunisa...)

E7: The Outlook for Pharmaceuticals to 2012

Date:12/13/2012

and government participation in immunisation programmes. Continued growth is also expected in the diagnostic and therapeutic segments, including cancer and diabetes.

INDONESIA

Due to the sheer size of the population, Indonesia cannot simply be dismissed. The Indonesian pharmaceutical market is projected to grow at a high single-digit CAGR in US dollar terms during the forecast period, and it will be the sixth largest pharmaceutical market in the Asia Pacific region by 2016. There are around 240 domestic pharmaceutical manufacturers in Indonesia, with the vast majority located in Java. However, despite the country possessing huge manufacturing capabilities, the complete lack of R&D in domestic companies could affect the market, especially if IPR regulations were tightened. Although multinationals will be unhappy at the legislation requiring all drugs in the Indonesian market to have been manufactured in Indonesia, it could potentially reduce costs in the long term for both the manufacturer and the consumer.

MEXICOGeneric sales in Mexico are still negligible in the private pharmacy sector. However, the National Association of Interchangeable Generic Medicines (AMEGI) believes that consumption of generic medicines in the private pharmacy sector will increase considerably in the forecast period. A number of patents for bestselling drugs will expire in the coming years, and this will accelerate generic market growth. Generic sales are high, when considering sales in the public sector. The public sector is accountable for about 80.0% of generic sales by value, whilst the private pharmacy sector represents the remaining 20.0%; generic sales represented 3.5% of pharmacy sales. In terms of competition, a number of foreign producers, i.e. Sanofi and Valeant, have acquired a couple of local producers, whilst others have formed partnerships with local producers.

RUSSIA

The presence of foreign manufacturers is increasing in Russia. A nu
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