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Dengue Vaccine Market Worth $400 million with 42% CAGR 2015 to 2020

DALLAS, July 17, 2014 /PRNewswire-iReach/ -- Among the five major pharmaceutical markets (5MM: Brazil, India, Mexico, Singapore and Thailand), Brazil and Mexico are projected to be the leading contributors to the dengue vaccine marketplace, as it expands rapidly from an estimated $70 million in 2015 to $400 million by 2020, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 42%, according to research and consulting firm.

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The company's latest report "OpportunityAnalyzer: Dengue Vaccines - Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2020" states that Brazil and Mexico will achieve a combined market share of over 98% across the 5MM in 2015, with respective sales of $45 million, equaling a 64% market share, and $24million (34%).

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Dengue is a febrile illness caused by the dengue virus (DENV), a single-stranded flavivirus most commonly transmitted by the Aedes aegypti (A. aegypti) mosquito. Thought to be responsible for upwards of 100 million infections each year, DENV is the most prevalent arthropod-borne virus in the world. Individuals infected with DENV can present with a wide spectrum of symptoms, including fevers, retro-orbital pain, severe headache, muscle and joint pain, and rash. The severity of dengue fever ranges from asymptomatic cases, to classic dengue fever, and to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or dengue shock syndrome (DSS) that have a mortality rate of 5%–15%. Because there are no marketed dengue-specific vaccines or therapeutics, current treatment strategies are limited to supportive care for those already infected with the virus, and vector control to reduce DENV transmission.

Companies Profiles mention in this report are:

  • Acambis
  • Biological E
  • GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
  • Hawaii Biotech
  • Inviragen
  • Merck
  • Panacea Biotech
  • Sanofi Pasteur
  • Takeda

Key Questions Answered:

  • Based on interviews with key opinion leaders (KOLs), GlobalData has identified the major unmet needs in the dengue vaccine marketplace. Will the leading pipeline agents fulfil these unmet needs during the forecast period (2015–2020)?
  • What research and development (R&D) strategies will companies leverage to compete in the future dengue vaccine marketplace?
  • Which patient population(s) are most likely to be targeted for routine immunization?
  • What clinical and environmental factors are likely to influence dengue vaccine uptake in Brazil, India, Mexico, Singapore, and Thailand? Which of these markets will experience the strongest growth from 2015–2020?

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However, these shares will change dramatically by 2020, as Mexico will surge ahead to generate $217 million, a 54% market share, while Brazil's more modest growth will take it to $97 million (24%). Growth in Brazil will be stymied by the arrival of a domestically-produced, live-attenuated dengue vaccine, TV-003, which GlobalData expects to seize substantial market share from Big Pharma-manufactured vaccines due to its lower price per dose.

Researcher anticipates that the superior clinical and commercial positioning of live-attenuated dengue vaccines, led by Sanofi's CYD-TDV and Takeda's DENVax, will facilitate their market dominance, with sales of these products across the 5MM projected to reach $166 million, a 42% market share, and $148 million (37%), respectively, by 2020.

Key Findings:

  • Researcher projects the dengue vaccine market in Brazil, India, Mexico, Singapore, and Thailand to grow from $69.6m in 2015 to $398.6m in 2020, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.8%. This rapid growth will be due to the expected incorporation of newly-launched dengue vaccines into routine immunization programs.
  • KOLs interviewed by GlobalData expect the live-attenuated dengue vaccines – led by Sanofi Pasteur's CTD-TDV and Takeda's DENVax – to dominate the marketplace for the duration of the forecast period.
  • Researcher anticipates that firms will increasingly turn to innovative R&D strategies, in particular the exploration of alternative approaches to early-stage clinical trial design – such as the dengue human infection model (DHIM) – in order to increase developmental efficiency, minimize upfront risk, and gain a competitive advantage over rivals.
  • Domestically-supplied vaccines, most notably Butantan Institute's TV-003 in Brazil and Panacea Biotech's/Biological E's TV-003 in India, are projected to limit market growth due to their low price relative to vaccines produced by privately-held foreign companies.

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Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents

1.1 List of Tables

1.2 List of Figures

2 Executive Summary

2.1 After the Launch of the First Dengue Vaccine in 2015, the Market is Projected to Experience Rapid Growth Through 2020

2.2 From a Barren to Competitive Market: Vaccine Developers Will Need to Leverage Innovative R&D Strategies to Differentiate Themselves from Their Rivals

2.3 High Unmet Need for Safe and Efficacious Dengue Vaccines Expected to Facilitate Rapid Uptake of Pipeline Agents

2.4 Opportunities for Current and Future Players to Exploit Gaps in the Treatment Landscape Will Exist Throughout the Forecast Period and Beyond

2.5 Live-Attenuated Vaccines, Led by Sanofi's CYD-TDV, are Expected to Dominate the Dengue Vaccine Marketplace from 2015–2020

2.6 What Do Physicians and Specialists Think?

3 Introduction

3.1 Catalyst

3.2 Related Reports

3.3 Upcoming Related Reports

4 Disease Overview

4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology

4.2 Symptoms

4.3 Prognosis

5 Epidemiology

5.1 Disease Background

5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities

5.3 Global Trends

5.4 Forecast Methodology

5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Dengue (2013–2023)

5.6 Discussion

6 Current Surveillance, Prevention, and Control Measures

6.1 Overview

6.2 Brazil

6.3 India

6.4 Mexico

6.5 Singapore

6.6 Thailand

7 Unmet Needs Assessment and Opportunity Analysis

7.1 Overview

7.2 Unmet Needs Analysis

7.3 Opportunity Analysis

8 Research and Development Strategies

8.1 Overview

8.2 Technological Approaches to Vaccine Development

8.3 Partnerships, Acquisitions, and Licensing Agreements

8.4 Clinical Trial Design

9 Pipeline Assessment

9.1 Overview

9.2 Live-Attenuated Vaccines in Clinical Development

9.3 Other Vaccines in Clinical Development

9.4 Vaccines in Preclinical Development

10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis

11 Appendix 138

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