Navigation Links
Blockbuster Expectations Don't Always Translate to Market Reality
Date:4/9/2013

LONDON and BOSTON, April 9, 2013 /PRNewswire/ --

EP Vantage Analyzes Accuracy of Analyst Sales Estimates for Blockbuster and Near-Blockbuster Launches

Pharma industry observers widely expect Biogen Idec's new multiple sclerosis therapy Tecfidera to reach mega-blockbuster status. However, EP Vantage®, EvaluatePharma®'s award-winning editorial team cautions that forecasting revenue for an unlaunched drug isn't always easy. A five-year review of EvaluatePharma's consensus forecasts of analyst predictions for blockbuster or near-blockbuster drug launches found that new products with the biggest hopes often disappoint, while others have vastly outperformed low expectations.

The report, "The Industry's Brightest Hopes: Where Are They Now?" uncovers some remarkable misses prompted by a sea change in treatment, reimbursement issues, safety concerns and heightened competition. While analysts' forecasts don't always ring true on performance, EP Vantage found that forecasts have also been spot on and in some cases performances even exceeded initial estimates.

"Evaluating the accuracy of consensus forecasts is particularly pertinent given the recent US approval of Tecfidera, with consensus data suggesting that this drug's sales could reach $3.7 billion within five years. Many factors can influence the success of a drug and while forecasts have been proven to ring true in many cases, our analysis shows just how far off they can be," commented Jacob Plieth , author of the EP Vantage report.

As the first company to provide consensus forecasts on global drug sales, EvaluatePharma takes the unweighted average of up to six equity research forecasts to provide reliable consensus estimates for the pharma and biotech industries to 2018. By taking an average, the impact of outlying forecasts is mitigated.

For a look at which of 2013's launches will be the next blockbusters, read the analysis here.

About EP Vantage

Written by a team of award winning pharma journalists, EP Vantage provides daily financial analysis of key industry catalysts including: regulatory and patent decisions, marketing approvals, licensing deals, and M&A - giving fresh angles and insight to both current and future industry triggers.

Launched in 2007 by EvaluatePharma, EP Vantage's unique access to EvaluatePharma data allows unrivaled, forward-looking, coverage of the pharmaceutical and biotech industry.

To register for a free trial of EP Vantage please visit: https://www.epvantage.com/Secure/Registration.aspx.

About Evaluate Ltd.

Since 1996, EvaluatePharma has been the premier source for high quality life science sector analysis, delivering exclusive consensus forecasts and trusted commercial insight into biotech and pharmaceutical performance. EvaluateMedTech sets a new standard in integrated analysis and consensus forecasts of the global medical device and diagnostic industry. EvaluateClinical Trials delivers unique intelligence to efficiently and accurately analyze the global clinical trial landscape.  A team of over 85 dedicated healthcare analysts employ rigorous methodologies to collate, organize and deliver the most-up-to-date commercial performance data available. The Evaluate services enable the life science community to make sound business decisions about value and opportunity. For more information please visit http://www.EvaluatePharma.com.

Media Contacts:
EP Vantage EvaluatePharma
Christine Lindgren
+1-617-866-3906
christine.lindgren@evaluategroup.com

Chempetitive Group (for US media)
Rachel Lear
+1-781-775-3640
rlear@chempetitive.com


'/>"/>
SOURCE EP Vantage
Copyright©2012 PR Newswire.
All rights reserved

Related medicine technology :

1. Frost & Sullivan: European Bipolar Therapeutics Market Slows Down in the Short Term As Key Blockbuster Drugs Go Off Patent
2. Abbott Sued for False Claims Related to its Blockbuster Drug TriCor
3. Area Radiology Groups Brand Makeover Redefines Customer Experience Expectations in Healthcare
4. Fluke Biomedical launches six translated websites
5. Rapid Fire Marketing Funds Development of Second Generation Vapor Inhaler
6. ulrich medical USA™ Releases New Expandable Spinal Implant for US Market
7. Nektar to Announce Financial Results for the First Quarter of 2012 on Wednesday, May 2, 2012, After Close of U.S.-Based Financial Markets
8. Almost 50 Percent of the Glaucoma Patient Population Remains Untreated, Signifying a Vast Market for Glaucoma Pharmaceuticals, Finds Frost & Sullivan
9. International Drug & Explosives Detection Company IDenta Corp. Releases Information to OTC markets.
10. Althea Technologies Appoints Dr. Kristin DeFife, Director, Biologics Manufacturing And Jack Wright, VP, Sales and Marketing
11. Ophthalmic Drugs: World Market Prospects 2012-2022
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:6/24/2016)... , June 24, 2016   Bay ... Rehabilitation Network,s Dean Center for Tick Borne ... Medicine and Rehabilitation, MIT Hacking Medicine, University of ... Innovation, today announced the five finalists of ... Lyme disease.  More than 100 scientists, clinicians, researchers, ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... June 24, 2016 Research ... "Structural Electronics 2015-2025: Applications, Technologies, Forecasts" ... In-Mold Electronics, Smart Skin, Structural Health ... Structural electronics involves electronic and/or electrical ... structures, replacing dumb structures such as vehicle bodies ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... , June 24, 2016 Dehaier Medical ... the "Company"), which develops, markets and sells medical devices ... , signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Hongyuan ... "Hongyuan Supply Chain") on June 20, 2016, to develop ... the strategic cooperation agreement, Dehaier will leverage Hongyuan Supply ...
Breaking Medicine Technology:
(Date:6/24/2016)... , ... June 24, 2016 , ... Those who have ... these feelings, many turn to unhealthy avenues, such as drug or alcohol abuse, as ... Michigan, has released tools for healthy coping following a traumatic event. , Trauma sufferers ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... ... ... in a crisis. Her son James, eight, was out of control. Prone to extreme mood ... something upset him, he couldn’t control his emotions,” remembers Marcy. “If there was a ... children and say he was going to kill them. If we were driving on ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... , ... June 24, 2016 , ... Global law firm ... 2016 Legal Elite. The attorneys chosen by their peers for this recognition are considered ... Seven Greenberg Traurig Shareholders received special honors as members of this year’s Legal Elite ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... (PRWEB) , ... June 24, 2016 , ... Comfort Keepers® ... American Cancer Society and the Road To Recovery® program to drive cancer patients to ... and other adults to ensure the highest quality of life and ongoing independence. ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... ... June 24, 2016 , ... People across the U.S. are sharpening their pencils ... an essay contest in which patients and their families pay tribute to a genetic ... 2016 National Society of Genetic Counselors (NSGC) Annual Education Conference (AEC) this September. ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):