BURLINGTON, Mass., Nov. 6, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms focusing on pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that novel emerging agents will experience steady uptake owing to the high prevalence of obese or overweight individuals and the current lack of efficacious, safe and well-tolerated weight-loss drugs. However, none of the emerging therapies are set to dominate the space owing to historical safety concerns that have fostered a cautious attitude among physicians and regulatory authorities, particularly in markets outside the United States.
The Pharmacor advisory service entitled Obesity finds that Orexigen/Takeda's Contrave will become the most widely used emerging therapy due to the fact it offers the best available balance of efficacy and safety among the competing therapeutic entities. A 3.0 mg formulation of Novo Nordisk's Victoza will become the sales leader over the 2012-2022 forecast period, owing to its premium price combined with physician familiarity and the additional metabolic benefits the drug provides. The U.S. launches of Vivus's Qsymia and Arena Pharmaceuticals/Eisai's Belviq in 2012 and 2013, respectively, have both been met with modest uptake, suggesting that historical safety issues associated with antiobesity agents still weigh on the minds of physicians. European and Japanese physicians will also have new treatments available from early in the forecast period, although they will continue to have fewer options from which to choose than their U.S. counterparts.
Decision Resources forecasts that the obesity drug market will grow more than fivefold over the next decade to exceed $2.5 billion in 2022 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan; market growth in the United States will be the predominant driver, overall. Novel agents that are forecast to launch over the next decade are expected to capture 91 percent of the obesity market in 2022. Increasing recognition of the medical importance of obesity and the high prevalence of the disease will drive continued demand for safe, efficacious and well tolerated weight-loss therapies.
"There is a great unmet need in the obesity market for agents that can induce satisfactory weight loss; a safe and well tolerated treatment filling the void between the efficacy offered by surgery and that offered by diet, exercise and behavioral modifications has not yet emerged," said Decision Resources Analyst Dr. Tim Blackstock, M.B. Ch.B.
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