Navigation Links
The Outbreak of Influenza is Now Predicted

Experts will now publish the predictions of influenza activity 2-4 weeks in advance in the Jan 15th issue of Clinical Infectious Diseases. //

Though there are outbreaks of influenza any time of the year, their incidence and severity can be announced which would act as a caution to people to opt for preventive measures like vaccination.

In a prediction market, people with information about a future event buy and sell shares based on what they believe the likelihood of that event will be. For instance, if a health care worker started seeing more cases of influenza in her clinic, she would buy shares representing increased levels of flu in the coming weeks and sell shares representing decreased activity. The prices at which these shares trade reflect the group's consensus on the future event. Prediction markets have accurately forecast the outcomes of a wide range of future events including presidential elections, Oscar nominees, and the Federal Reserve's decisions about interest rates.

"For decades, farmers have used futures markets to make decisions about what crops to plant," says Philip Polgreen, MD, of the University of Iowa. "We're just borrowing that technology to help people in public health and health care make decisions about the future."

"Many health care workers possess current information that could be used to predict future infectious disease trends," explains Dr. Polgreen. But there is no mechanism to gather that data and digest it quickly enough to make it useful. "Prediction markets provide a way to collect and analyze information in real time in an easy-to-interpret graphical format," Dr. Polgreen says.

Dr. Polgreen and his collaborators set up a "flu market" for the 2004-05 influenza season in the state of Iowa. Sixty-one health care workers from a variety of backgrounds participated.

The traders bought and sold shares based on the level of influenza activity in Iowa as reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's five-level grading system. The market accurately predicted the activity levels at the end of a target week 71 percent of the time, and was within one level 93 percent of the time. Longer-term predictions were less accurate, but still beat predictions based solely on historical averages up to four weeks in advance.

Dr. Polgreen and his coauthors imagine that infectious diseases prediction markets could be created almost overnight to address emerging infectious diseases, such as SARS. In the near future, Dr. Polgreen and his colleagues plan to launch a market to ascertain flu vaccine effectiveness and a separate market to evaluate the probability of human-to-human transmission of avian influenza in different parts of the world. "We think prediction markets can accurately forecast the future activity of a wide variety of infectious diseases and related phenomena by aggregating the expert opinions of health care providers," said Dr. Polgreen.

Source-Eurekalert
KOM
'"/>




Related medicine news :

1. Ebola Virus - Outbreak Claims More Lives In Uganda.
2. Grapes, Melons Implicated in Outbreaks
3. Green Onions Blamed in Outbreak
4. Mumbai Alert: Possibility Of An Epidemic Outbreak
5. Dengue Outbreak in Kolkata, Four Dead
6. Global Outbreak Of Bird Flu Warning By Chinese Scientist
7. India May not Face Bird Flu Outbreak
8. Pakistani Quake Survivors Face Outbreak Of Diarrhea
9. Legal Action against Authority Regarding Outbreak of Legionnaires’ Diseas
10. Novel Strain Detected In The Recent Outbreak Of Bird Flu At Ukraine
11. Watch Station Set Up In China To Monitor Bird Flu Outbreak
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:


(Date:6/26/2016)... ... ... Quality metrics are proliferating in cancer care, and are derived from many ... the beholder, according to experts who offered insights and commentary in the current issue ... the full issue, click here . , For the American Society of Clinical ...
(Date:6/26/2016)... Aliso Viejo, California (PRWEB) , ... June 26, 2016 , ... ... for Final Cut Pro X. , "Film editors can give their videos a whole ... artistically," said Christina Austin - CEO of Pixel Film Studios. , ProSlice Levels ...
(Date:6/26/2016)... ... June 26, 2016 , ... Brent Kasmer, a legally blind and certified personal trainer is helping ... fitness app. The fitness app plans to fix the two major problems leading the fitness ... size fits all type program , They don’t eliminate all the reasons people ...
(Date:6/25/2016)... ... 25, 2016 , ... Experts from the American Institutes for ... Meeting June 26-28, 2016, at the Hynes Convention Center in Boston. , AIR ... care planning, healthcare costs and patient and family engagement. , AIR researchers will ...
(Date:6/25/2016)... ... 25, 2016 , ... The temporary closing of Bruton Memorial Library on June 21 due to ... a new, often overlooked aspect of head lice: the parasite’s ability to live away from ... common occurrence, but a necessary one in the event that lice have simply gotten out ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:6/23/2016)... June 23, 2016 Bracket , a leading ... next generation clinical outcomes platform, Bracket eCOA (SM) 6.0, ... June 26 – 30, 2016 in Philadelphia ... Clinical Outcome Assessment product of its kind to fully integrate ... Bracket eCOA 6.0 is a flexible platform for electronic ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... and INDIANAPOLIS , June ... receiving a Lilly Diabetes Tomorrow,s Leaders Scholarship is any ... scholarship winners, announced today online at www.diabetesscholars.org ... type 1 diabetes stand in the way of academic ... supported the Foundation,s scholarship program since 2012, and continues ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... June 23, 2016 Revolutionary technology ... Oticon , industry leaders in advanced audiology and ... Oticon Opn ™, the world,s first internet connected ... for IoT devices.      (Photo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20160622/382240 ... a number of ,world firsts,: , TwinLink™ ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: