Navigation Links
The Outbreak of Influenza is Now Predicted

Experts will now publish the predictions of influenza activity 2-4 weeks in advance in the Jan 15th issue of Clinical Infectious Diseases. //

Though there are outbreaks of influenza any time of the year, their incidence and severity can be announced which would act as a caution to people to opt for preventive measures like vaccination.

In a prediction market, people with information about a future event buy and sell shares based on what they believe the likelihood of that event will be. For instance, if a health care worker started seeing more cases of influenza in her clinic, she would buy shares representing increased levels of flu in the coming weeks and sell shares representing decreased activity. The prices at which these shares trade reflect the group's consensus on the future event. Prediction markets have accurately forecast the outcomes of a wide range of future events including presidential elections, Oscar nominees, and the Federal Reserve's decisions about interest rates.

"For decades, farmers have used futures markets to make decisions about what crops to plant," says Philip Polgreen, MD, of the University of Iowa. "We're just borrowing that technology to help people in public health and health care make decisions about the future."

"Many health care workers possess current information that could be used to predict future infectious disease trends," explains Dr. Polgreen. But there is no mechanism to gather that data and digest it quickly enough to make it useful. "Prediction markets provide a way to collect and analyze information in real time in an easy-to-interpret graphical format," Dr. Polgreen says.

Dr. Polgreen and his collaborators set up a "flu market" for the 2004-05 influenza season in the state of Iowa. Sixty-one health care workers from a variety of backgrounds participated.

The traders bought and sold shares based on the level of influenza activity in Iowa as reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's five-level grading system. The market accurately predicted the activity levels at the end of a target week 71 percent of the time, and was within one level 93 percent of the time. Longer-term predictions were less accurate, but still beat predictions based solely on historical averages up to four weeks in advance.

Dr. Polgreen and his coauthors imagine that infectious diseases prediction markets could be created almost overnight to address emerging infectious diseases, such as SARS. In the near future, Dr. Polgreen and his colleagues plan to launch a market to ascertain flu vaccine effectiveness and a separate market to evaluate the probability of human-to-human transmission of avian influenza in different parts of the world. "We think prediction markets can accurately forecast the future activity of a wide variety of infectious diseases and related phenomena by aggregating the expert opinions of health care providers," said Dr. Polgreen.

Source-Eurekalert
KOM
'"/>




Related medicine news :

1. Ebola Virus - Outbreak Claims More Lives In Uganda.
2. Grapes, Melons Implicated in Outbreaks
3. Green Onions Blamed in Outbreak
4. Mumbai Alert: Possibility Of An Epidemic Outbreak
5. Dengue Outbreak in Kolkata, Four Dead
6. Global Outbreak Of Bird Flu Warning By Chinese Scientist
7. India May not Face Bird Flu Outbreak
8. Pakistani Quake Survivors Face Outbreak Of Diarrhea
9. Legal Action against Authority Regarding Outbreak of Legionnaires’ Diseas
10. Novel Strain Detected In The Recent Outbreak Of Bird Flu At Ukraine
11. Watch Station Set Up In China To Monitor Bird Flu Outbreak
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:


(Date:10/13/2017)... Worth, TX (PRWEB) , ... October 13, 2017 ... ... financial planning agency serving communities in the greater Dallas, Miami, and Raleigh regions, ... young boy fighting to overcome a rare and deadly chromosome abnormality. , After ...
(Date:10/13/2017)... ... October 13, 2017 , ... As health professionals work ... as “patient engagement.” The patient is doing more than filling out a survey; in ... “There is an increasing emphasis in health care and research on the importance of ...
(Date:10/13/2017)... ... ... The American Board of Family Medicine's (ABFM) Board of Directors has selected Warren ... James C. Puffer upon his retirement. Dr. Newton will serve in the position of ... end of 2018. Upon assuming the role of President and CEO on January 1, ...
(Date:10/13/2017)... , ... October 13, 2017 , ... PurhealthRX , ... Oil utilizing Purzorb™ technology. Applying the Purzorb™process to full spectrum CBD oil will revolutionize ... providing a CBD form that can be easily incorporated into liquid products, while reducing ...
(Date:10/13/2017)... , ... October 13, 2017 , ... Lori R. Somekh, ... member of ElderCounsel, a national organization of elder law and special needs planning attorneys. ... and rules. It also provides a forum to network with elder law attorneys nationwide,” ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:9/27/2017)... NEW YORK , Sept. 27, 2017  DarioHealth Corp. (NASDAQ: DRIO), ... solutions, today announced that its MyDario product is expected to appear on ... for when The Dr. Oz Show airs in your area: http://www.doctoroz.com/page/where-watch-dr-oz-show ... The nine-time Emmy award-winning, The Dr. ... ...
(Date:9/22/2017)... , Sept. 22, 2017  As the latest Obamacare ... Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Lindsey Graham ... that the medical device industry is in an odd ... tax, the 2.3% excise tax on medical device sales ... also want covered patients, increased visits and hospital customers ...
(Date:9/18/2017)... ALLENTOWN , Pa. and KALAMAZOO, Mich. ... Allentown, Penn. , and OptiMed Specialty Pharmacy ... a business partnership to offer a strategic hub service ... PMD Healthcare,s highly sought-after personal spirometer, Spiro PD 2.0, ... A spirometer is a medical device used ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: