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Simple Model to Predict Chronic Kidney Disease

evelop a simple method to identify individuals who should be screened in a variety of different settings in real life.'

The researchers examined comprehensive demographic, clinical and medical history variables as potential risk factors of CKD, based on the medical literature on this subject. Through statistical modeling and validation, they were able to determine that only seven factors -- age, female gender, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, proteinuria (an abnormal amount of protein in the urine) and anemia -- had significant associations with CKD in the study group. These characteristics are easily identified by the general public and health-care providers through a user-friendly questionnaire. They frequently occur together and cumulatively affect underlying kidney disease.

If a patient completes the questionnaire with a total score of four or higher, a confirmatory testing for creatinine concentration and/or glomerular filtration rate (GFR), directed by a health-care professional, would be strongly recommended. Thirty-six percent of the 8,530 study participants scored four or higher on the questionnaire.

'Although current clinical practice guidelines recommend screening of individuals 18 years or older with a family history of diabetes, hypertension or kidney disease, or a personal history of diabetes or hypertension, these recommendations focus on single risk factors and do not quantify the cumulative effect of multiple risk factors. Our method made use of the coexisting risk factors that were identified by a valid scientific approach, greatly enhanced upon the concept-based selection, and rigorously followed the practice of evidence-based research,' said Dr. Bang.

In the future, the questionnaire will be tested in several settings, including a community-based screening program. The researchers hope their model will be used not only in medical encounters such as in primary care or nephrology clini
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