( model already was introduced in a prev...)Scientists Assess Risk of Flu Pandemic Spread Via Global Airlines,Health

model already was introduced in a previous study conducted by the same researchers more than a year ago, showing in detail how air-transportation-network properties are responsible for the worldwide pattern of diseases. Using advanced computational tools, the team was able in both studies to simulate how an influenza pandemic would spread, both over time and geographically, and to provide forecasted scenarios and confidence intervals.

Here's one scenario the model predicts: A flu virus, say, originating in Hanoi, Vietnam, with a reproductive number of 1.1 (a measure of how many people are infected on average by an infectious person) poses only a very mild global threat. Increase that number to 1.5 and the flu potentially could infect half the population in more than 100 countries. Intervention measures would therefore be necessary.

The researchers show that strict travel restrictions would do little, if anything, to prevent the flu from spreading throughout the globe.

Encouragingly, the model predicts that the use of antiviral drugs would significantly thwart a global flu outbreak within certain ranges of infectiousness if every country in the world had a drug stockpile sufficient to treat 5-10 percent of their populations.

Next, the study focused on realistic scenarios in which antiviral resources are not equally distributed, with a higher concentration in wealthy countries. Different strategies are compared: a selfish strategy in which each country relies on its own supplies, as opposed to a cooperative approach in which prepared countries would donate part of their resources for global use.

"Surprisingly," said Vespignani, who is internationally known for his research in the statistical analysis and computer modeling of epidemic spread, "the cooperative strategy is shown to be more effective in delaying the pandemic evolution and mitigating its impact on the population of both donor and recipient countr
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