Navigation Links
Scientists Assess Risk of Flu Pandemic Spread Via Global Airlines

An Indiana University School of Informatics-led team of researchers has constructed a model that predicts how an emerging pandemic influenza might spread across the globe// by airliners.

The study, "Modeling the Worldwide Spread of Pandemic Influenza: Baseline Case and Containment Intervention," appears in the January issue of the journal PLoS Medicine. The model they devised is said to be the world's largest-scale epidemic simulation of its kind.

H5N1 avian influenza, commonly referred to as bird flu, has not yet resulted in a pandemic influenza because the virus lacks the ability to spread efficiently and sustainably among humans. However, public health officials are greatly concerned that a human flu strain could be triggered by the H5N1 virus, which is found in bird flocks around the world and has repeatedly crossed the species barrier and infected people.

The recent outbreaks of avian flu started in Southeast Asia in mid-2003. Within two years, the virus had spread beyond that region, very likely carried by wild birds along their migratory routes. The avian influenza virus has been reported in several Asian countries, the Balkans region, Western Europe and some regions in Africa.

"The threat of a pandemic is pushing the international community to discuss scenario analysis and develop adequate preparedness plans," Colizza said. "This calls for the need to understand the possible propagation of a pandemic, in order to devise and test appropriate intervention strategies to contain and mitigate its evolution and impact on the population."

The researchers developed a mathematical model using massive passenger-flow databases from the International Air Transport Association, an organization of airlines comprising 99 percent of worldwide commercial air traffic. Census information from more than 3,000 urban centers in 220 countries and related disease patterns from those areas also was analyzed.

The model already was introduced in a previous study conducted by the same researchers more than a year ago, showing in detail how air-transportation-network properties are responsible for the worldwide pattern of diseases. Using advanced computational tools, the team was able in both studies to simulate how an influenza pandemic would spread, both over time and geographically, and to provide forecasted scenarios and confidence intervals.

Here's one scenario the model predicts: A flu virus, say, originating in Hanoi, Vietnam, with a reproductive number of 1.1 (a measure of how many people are infected on average by an infectious person) poses only a very mild global threat. Increase that number to 1.5 and the flu potentially could infect half the population in more than 100 countries. Intervention measures would therefore be necessary.

The researchers show that strict travel restrictions would do little, if anything, to prevent the flu from spreading throughout the globe.

Encouragingly, the model predicts that the use of antiviral drugs would significantly thwart a global flu outbreak within certain ranges of infectiousness if every country in the world had a drug stockpile sufficient to treat 5-10 percent of their populations.

Next, the study focused on realistic scenarios in which antiviral resources are not equally distributed, with a higher concentration in wealthy countries. Different strategies are compared: a selfish strategy in which each country relies on its own supplies, as opposed to a cooperative approach in which prepared countries would donate part of their resources for global use.

"Surprisingly," said Vespignani, who is internationally known for his research in the statistical analysis and computer modeling of epidemic spread, "the cooperative strategy is shown to be more effective in delaying the pandemic evolution and mitigating its impact on the population of both donor and recipient countr ies."

Predictions therefore are strongly in favor for a cooperative sharing of resources, which could be organized and managed by the World Health Organization, as an efficient way to deal with an emerging influenza pandemic waiting for vaccine development.

Source-Newswise
'"/>




Related medicine news :

1. Scientists plan human cloning clinic in the United States
2. Scientists found ancient Human Germ Killer
3. Scientists locate key hormone involved in appetite control
4. Scientists open the book of life
5. Scientists review SARS
6. Scientists crack dengue fever puzzle
7. Scientists push to lower hidden sodium in food
8. Indian Scientists Make Wide-Ranging Analysis And Annotation Of X Chromosome
9. Scientists have found effective brain regions for deep brain stimulation for Parkinson’s
10. Scientists reveal the secrets of sarcasm
11. Scientists Unveil Mechanism Behind Resistance to Severe Malaria
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:


(Date:6/26/2016)... ... ... legally blind and certified personal trainer is helping to develop a weight loss fitness plan ... fix the two major problems leading the fitness industry today:, , ... They don’t eliminate all the reasons people quit their exercise program ...
(Date:6/25/2016)... TX (PRWEB) , ... June 25, 2016 , ... Austin ... of the American College of Mohs Surgery and to Dr. Russell Peckham for medical ... and highly effective treatment for skin cancer. The selective fellowship in Mohs Micrographic Surgery ...
(Date:6/25/2016)... TX (PRWEB) , ... June 25, 2016 , ... ... the United States, named Dr. Sesan Ogunleye, as the Medical Director of its new ... the facility Medical Director of our new Mesquite location,” said Dr. James M. Muzzarelli, ...
(Date:6/25/2016)... ... June 25, 2016 , ... On Friday, June 10, ... Bronze Wellness at Work award to iHire in recognition of their exemplary accomplishments in ... the 7th annual Maryland Workplace Health & Wellness Symposium at the BWI Marriott in ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... ... ... Those who have experienced traumatic events may suffer from a complex set ... drug or alcohol abuse, as a coping mechanism. To avoid this pain and suffering, ... traumatic event. , Trauma sufferers tend to feel a range of emotions, from depression, ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:6/24/2016)... , June 24, 2016  Consumers have ... and regulators/payers have placed more emphasis on patient ... patient support programs in the pharmaceutical industry have ... medications. Consequently, pharmaceutical companies are focusing on becoming ... are providing products and services that improve health. ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... , June 24, 2016 ... the "Structural Electronics 2015-2025: Applications, Technologies, Forecasts" ... In-Mold Electronics, Smart Skin, Structural ... Structural electronics involves electronic and/or ... protective structures, replacing dumb structures such as vehicle ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... , June 24, 2016 According ... by Type (Standard Pen Needles, Safety Pen Needles), Needle ... GLP-1, Growth Hormone), Mode of Purchase (Retail, Non-Retail) - ... This report studies the market for the forecast period ... reach USD 2.81 Billion by 2021 from USD 1.65 ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: