Navigation Links
Mathematical Model Predicts Cholera Outbreaks

A mathematical model of disease cycles developed at the University of Michigan shows promise for predicting cholera outbreaks.//

Speaking in a symposium titled "New Vistas in the Mathematics of Ecology and Evolution" at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in San Francisco, theoretical ecologist Mercedes Pascual will discuss how models that she and coworkers have developed can aid short-term forecasting of infectious diseases, such as cholera, and inform decisions about vaccination and other disease-prevention strategies.

In research done over the past seven years, Pascual and colleagues have found evidence that a phenomenon known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a major source of climate variability from year to year, influences cycles of cholera in Bangladesh. They also showed that the coupling between climate variability and cholera cycles has become stronger in recent decades.

Now, Pascual is examining the feasibility of using a model developed during that work as an early warning system.

"The question we asked was whether, using data from 1966 to 2000, we could have predicted cholera outbreaks over the past five years," said Pascual, an associate professor of ecology and evolutionary biology. "We also wanted to know whether incorporating ENSO into the model would improve the accuracy of our predictions." The challenge for the model was particularly interesting because the past five years were atypical, with fewer cholera cases than usual and no strong climate anomalies. However, the model performed well, Pascual said.

"Our results showed that for the past five years, we would have done fairly well predicting cholera cases one year ahead, and that the model that uses ENSO makes prediction even more accurate."

Cholera, a serious health problem in many parts of the world, results from a bacterial infection. The bacterium takes up residence i n the intestines, causing vomiting and diarrhea, which can lead to severe dehydration and death if patients are not promptly treated.

Source-Eurekalert
'"/>




Related medicine news :

1. Mathematical Model Can Now Help Predict Asthma Risk
2. Mathematical approach to asthma
3. Researchers Develop Mouse Model Of Brain Tumor
4. New Model for understanding Tumor Metastasis
5. Mathematical Model Can Now Help Predict Asthma Risk
6. Model Kate Moss - Re-Birth After Humiliation
7. Womens Self-Esteem Not Lowered By Seeing Ultra Thin Models
8. India Can Become A Role Model In Combating HIV Infections
9. Mouse Models To Determine The Cause Of Aggressive Leukemia
10. Aussie Model Macpherson Hated Tall Figure
11. Mouse Model Beneficial to Study of Head and Neck Cancer
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:


(Date:10/13/2017)... , ... October 13, 2017 , ... “The Journey: From ... every danger possible to save lost souls in the Philippines. “The Journey: From the ... is a dedicated teacher of the Bible. She has taught all ages and currently ...
(Date:10/12/2017)... WILMINGTON, Del. (PRWEB) , ... October 12, 2017 ... ... technology and advisory services for healthcare compliance program management, will showcase a range ... and National Association for Assisted Living (NCAL) Convention and Expo to be held ...
(Date:10/12/2017)... ... October 12, 2017 , ... Planet Fitness, one of ... announced today its plans to open a flagship location in Covington, LA at 401 ... Rooms To Go store next to Office Depot in the Holiday Square shopping center. ...
(Date:10/12/2017)... ... 2017 , ... IsoComforter, Inc. ( https://isocomforter.com ), one of the ... new design of the shoulder pad. The shoulder pad provides optimal support and ... pain while using cold therapy. By utilizing ice and water that is circulated from ...
(Date:10/12/2017)... ... October 12, 2017 , ... Asante, a ... health care, have expanded their existing home health joint venture through an agreement, ... been operating a joint venture home health company with Asante, delivering clinically integrated ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:9/23/2017)... Pa. , Sept. 22, 2017 Janssen ... a complete response letter from the U.S. Food and ... seeking approval of sirukumab for the treatment of moderately ... letter indicates additional clinical data are needed to further ... moderately to severely active RA. ...
(Date:9/19/2017)... , Sept. 19, 2017   ZirMed Inc ., ... analytics, today announced that it has been ranked #1 by ... Black Book™ Rankings 2017 User Survey. ZirMed was recognized ... for large hospitals and medical centers over 200 beds and ... Book,s healthcare technology user survey history. ...
(Date:9/12/2017)... , Sept. 12, 2017   EcoVadis , the leading platform for ... the first annual edition of its Global CSR Risk and Performance Index. ... by EcoVadis, based on Scorecard Ratings that analyzed nearly 800,000 data points ... ... ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: