Navigation Links
Mathematical Model Predicts Cholera Outbreaks

A mathematical model of disease cycles developed at the University of Michigan shows promise for predicting cholera outbreaks.//

Speaking in a symposium titled "New Vistas in the Mathematics of Ecology and Evolution" at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in San Francisco, theoretical ecologist Mercedes Pascual will discuss how models that she and coworkers have developed can aid short-term forecasting of infectious diseases, such as cholera, and inform decisions about vaccination and other disease-prevention strategies.

In research done over the past seven years, Pascual and colleagues have found evidence that a phenomenon known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a major source of climate variability from year to year, influences cycles of cholera in Bangladesh. They also showed that the coupling between climate variability and cholera cycles has become stronger in recent decades.

Now, Pascual is examining the feasibility of using a model developed during that work as an early warning system.

"The question we asked was whether, using data from 1966 to 2000, we could have predicted cholera outbreaks over the past five years," said Pascual, an associate professor of ecology and evolutionary biology. "We also wanted to know whether incorporating ENSO into the model would improve the accuracy of our predictions." The challenge for the model was particularly interesting because the past five years were atypical, with fewer cholera cases than usual and no strong climate anomalies. However, the model performed well, Pascual said.

"Our results showed that for the past five years, we would have done fairly well predicting cholera cases one year ahead, and that the model that uses ENSO makes prediction even more accurate."

Cholera, a serious health problem in many parts of the world, results from a bacterial infection. The bacterium takes up residence i n the intestines, causing vomiting and diarrhea, which can lead to severe dehydration and death if patients are not promptly treated.

Source-Eurekalert
'"/>




Related medicine news :

1. Mathematical Model Can Now Help Predict Asthma Risk
2. Mathematical approach to asthma
3. Researchers Develop Mouse Model Of Brain Tumor
4. New Model for understanding Tumor Metastasis
5. Mathematical Model Can Now Help Predict Asthma Risk
6. Model Kate Moss - Re-Birth After Humiliation
7. Womens Self-Esteem Not Lowered By Seeing Ultra Thin Models
8. India Can Become A Role Model In Combating HIV Infections
9. Mouse Models To Determine The Cause Of Aggressive Leukemia
10. Aussie Model Macpherson Hated Tall Figure
11. Mouse Model Beneficial to Study of Head and Neck Cancer
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:


(Date:10/13/2017)... N.Y (PRWEB) , ... October 13, 2017 , ... Lori ... became a member of ElderCounsel, a national organization of elder law and special needs ... changing laws and rules. It also provides a forum to network with elder law ...
(Date:10/13/2017)... ... October 13, 2017 , ... Ellevate Network, the leading network for professional ... action towards gender equality at their inaugural Summit in New York City in June. ... a social audience of over 3 million. To watch the Mobilize Women video, ...
(Date:10/13/2017)... ... 13, 2017 , ... Coveros, a leader in agile coaching ... contract by the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). The Enterprise Agile ... of Agile methodologies in a consistent and high value manner across CMS programs. ...
(Date:10/12/2017)... ... October 12, 2017 , ... CitiDent and ... apnea using cutting-edge Oventus O2Vent technology. As many as 18 million Americans ... frequent cessation in breathing. Oral appliances can offer significant relief to about 75 ...
(Date:10/12/2017)... ... ... The American College of Medical Informatics (ACMI) will present the 2017 Morris F. ... AMIA’s Annual Symposium in Washington, D.C. AMIA’s Annual Symposium is taking place ... the field of medical informatics, this prestigious award is presented to an individual whose ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:9/27/2017)... NEW YORK , Sept. 27, 2017  DarioHealth Corp. (NASDAQ: ... data solutions, today announced that its MyDario product is expected to appear ... listings for when The Dr. Oz Show airs in your area: ... The nine-time Emmy award-winning, The ... ...
(Date:9/22/2017)... ROCKVILLE, Md. , Sept. 22, 2017  As ... by Republican Senators Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and ... Kalorama Information notes that the medical device industry is ... the medical device tax, the 2.3% excise tax on ... Act.  But they also want covered patients, increased visits ...
(Date:9/18/2017)... KALAMAZOO, Mich. , Sept. 18, 2017  PMD ... OptiMed Specialty Pharmacy of Kalamazoo, Mich. ... strategic hub service that expedites and streamlines patient and ... Spiro PD 2.0, and wellness management services.  ... medical device used to measure lung function for a ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: