( nimals. To forecast the risk of ...)Increased Risk of Hantavirus Forecast for U.S. Southwest,Health

nimals."

To forecast the risk of hantavirus, Glass and other scientists examined satellite images of the Four Corners region taken in 2005. The images provided information on vegetation growth, soil moisture and other ecological conditions, which Glass and his colleagues previously determined were where mice and hantavirus thrived.

They then calculated the level of risk for the region and for specific areas within the region in 2006. The researchers verified the accuracy of their forecast model by comparing their forecasts with actual hantavirus outbreaks going back to 1993, when the disease was first identified in the United States.

Their forecasts, based on data from 1993, 1997 and 1998, accurately predicted the actual disease outbreaks for 1994, 1998 and 1999 respectively.

(Source: Newswise)
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