'From ocean measurements and by analysing climate simulations we can see there are changes in features of the ocean that cannot be explained by natural variability',said CSIRO oceanographer Dr Gael Alory.
'These oceanic changes are almost certainly linked to changes in the heat structure of the atmosphere and have led to a rise in water temperatures in the sub-tropical Indian Ocean of around two degrees celsius.
'At the same time, we are seeing changes in ocean circulation in tropical regions as a result of a long-term weakening of the Pacific Ocean trade winds. This affects sea surface temperature in regions relevant to the source and distribution of rainfall across southern Australia,' Dr Alory said.
The research by Dr Alory, his CSIRO Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship colleague, Dr Gary Meyers, and CSIRO Marine and Atmospherics Dr Susan Wijffels has recently appeared in the journal, Geophysical Research Letters. The paper examines trends in Indian Ocean temperatures over 40 years that can help scientists and resource managers understand fluctuations in rainfall patterns over southern Australia.
The research, contributing to the Australian Climate Change Science Program and partly funded by the South East Australia Climate Initiative, combined access to ocean observations using the volunteer ships of opportunity program and a set of models used by scientists in developing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment. Thanks to the operators and crew of commercial ships, Australian scientists have access to a regular series of ocean measurements to a depth of 800 metres across the Indian Ocean.
'The cooling is occurring between Australia and Indonesia where the Indonesian throughflow emerges into the Indian Ocean and is linked to the observed weakening of Pacific Ocean trade-winds,'
The teams key findings were:
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