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Reed Group Will Debut New Predictive Modeling Tool at DMEC Conference
Date:7/17/2009

based on previous cases.

But employees are not averages, and many factors can influence the time away from the job that an individual will need to recover. Emotional stress can play a huge role in recovery times for physical injuries. Co-morbid conditions (e.g., diabetes) can play a large role. A patient's age and job classification also matter.

With its new Predictive Modeling Tool, MDGuidelines offers case managers two sets of return-to-work durations. One set of durations, a unique result of Reed Group's clinical consensus process, provides minimum, optimum and maximum durations for physiological recovery times, an idealized figure that "factors out" the non-medical complexities of real-world disability cases. The second set, achieved via the Predictive Modeling Tool, creates a benchmark that case managers can weigh against the physiological durations.

"Case managers now can have a benchmark--based on the patient's actual conditions--that they can use to gauge the influence of their intervention," says Seymour.

For example, MDGuidelines lists the optimum duration for physiological recovery time for a bimalleolar (closed) ankle fracture as 14 days. The Predictive Modeling Tool calculates that a 30-year-old male with a sedentary job class and a history of episodic mood disorders usually takes 48.5 days to return to work.

Using the two sets of durations, a case manager could easily see that making sure the worker has appropriate behavioral support early in the healing process could bring the absence duration closer to 14 days instead of 48.5 days.

"The difference between the physiological recovery time (e.g., the
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