Navigation Links
Widespread school closures needed to stop strain on hospitals during epidemics
Date:2/2/2011

Selective schools closures has been considered as a means of reducing transmission between children and hence reducing the number of cases at the peak of an epidemic but new research led by researchers at the University of Warwick shows that limited school closures are ineffective and that only significant widespread school closures would have real effect on the spread of a epidemic and the strain placed on hospital intensive care units.

Dr Thomas House from the University of Warwick's Mathematics Institute, and the University's Complexity Science research group said:

"Influenza potentially places an extreme burden on local health services. This was observed in both the 2009-10 swine-flu pandemic and this year's seasonal 'flu outbreak. Our work uses mathematical models to assess how school closures reduce the burden on particular hospitals. Although sustained national closures of schools can be very effective, they are costly and disruptive, and can even prevent parents in the health service from responding to any epidemic. We find in the worst cases, that short duration, localised closures cannot fully prevent some hospitals exceeding capacity. This means, when facing the threat of a severe pandemic, a coordinated and possibly extended period of school closures may be necessary."

The researchers found that even with broadly optimistic assumptions about school closures the proportion of hospitals above capacity in their intensive care units cannot be brought to zero and only achieves its lowest value of 12 per cent when there is a coordinated closure of at least 30 per cent of all English schools. In fact if less optimistic (but more realistic) assumptions are made about the timing and selection of closures there is no significant difference on the strain put on intensive care units until at least 50 per cent of all English schools are closed.

"Our work supports the decision not to close schools as a control measure during the 2009/10 swine 'flu pandemic," said Dr House. "If a pandemic is serious enough to require measures like school closures, then they need to be well timed and large scale to have much effect."

The Warwick research team appealed for more public help to create even bigger data sets to help future modeling of these problems that could help inform decision making in future epidemics. "The results in this work rely on existing information about local schools and hospitals, and yet tell us a lot about our ability to control pandemics. Yet, if we wish to devise more refined control methods, we need far more information about people's contact patterns and the behaviour of 'flu in the UK," said University of Warwick researcher Professor Matt Keeling. "Anyone can help with this by filling in the survey at our website www.contactsurvey.org, and by registering symptoms with our colleagues at www.flusurvey.org.uk."


'/>"/>

Contact: Dr. Thomas House
T.A.House@warwick.ac.uk
44-797-295-2588
University of Warwick
Source:Eurekalert  

Related medicine news :

1. Widespread Use of Defibrillators in Public Places Saves Lives: Study
2. Oncometabolite linked with widespread alterations in gene expression
3. Evidence lacking for widespread use of costly antipsychotic drugs, says Stanford researcher
4. Smokeless Tobacco Use Widespread in Some States
5. Widespread parental misuse of medicines puts children at risk
6. Top Researcher Writes on Autism for Britannica; Baron-Cohen, Others, Report on Causes, Diagnosis and Treatment of Widespread Condition
7. Widespread Public Defibrillators May Save Lives
8. Teens With Food Allergies May Feel Unsafe at School
9. Preschool kids know what they like: Salt, sugar and fat
10. Friends a Big Influence on Grades in Middle School: Study
11. Med School Grads May Not Be Ready for Primary Care
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
Related Image:
Widespread school closures needed to stop strain on hospitals during epidemics
(Date:10/12/2017)... (PRWEB) , ... October 12, 2017 , ... ... are now treating sleep apnea using cutting-edge Oventus O2Vent technology. As ... serious sleep disorder characterized by frequent cessation in breathing. Oral appliances can offer ...
(Date:10/12/2017)... ... ... IsoComforter, Inc. ( https://isocomforter.com ), one of the Nation’s premier ... of the shoulder pad. The shoulder pad provides optimal support and full contact ... using cold therapy. By utilizing ice and water that is circulated from an insulated ...
(Date:10/12/2017)... ... October 12, 2017 , ... ... system that we intend to develop to enable prevention of a major side ... severe hearing loss, especially in pediatric patients. For cisplatin, hearing loss is FDA ...
(Date:10/12/2017)... ... , ... Leading pediatric oncology experts at Children’s National Health System ... of the International Society of Paediatric Oncology (SIOP) Oct. 12-15. Chaired by ... Blood Disorders at Children’s National, and Stephen P. Hunger, M.D., Chief of the ...
(Date:10/12/2017)... ... October 12, 2017 , ... ... nation's first interactive health literacy software tool, and the Cancer Patient Education Network ... cancer patient education, today announce a new strategic alliance. , As CPEN’s ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:10/5/2017)... , Oct. 5, 2017  In response ... of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons (AAOMS) released prescribing ... – to be used as a first-line therapy ... Recognizing the ... AAOMS White Paper "Opioid Prescribing: Acute and Postoperative ...
(Date:10/2/2017)... Oct. 2, 2017 Diplomat Pharmacy, Inc. (NYSE: ... Software and Consulting, LLC , and named its founder ... based in Tennessee , will operate ... expands EnvoyHealth,s service offerings for health care partners to ... "In an interoperable world, technology ...
(Date:10/2/2017)... 2, 2017 The Rebound mobile app is poised ... reverse the tide of prescription drug addiction. The app empowers ... intake and stepping down their dosage in a safe, controlled ... December 2017; the first 100,000 people to sign up will ... http://www.rebound-solution.com/ ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: