Navigation Links
Weather, stomach bugs and climate change: Refining the model
Date:6/4/2008

BOSTON (June 4, 2008) Monitoring extreme weather, such as periods of high temperature, is one way to predict the timing and intensity of infectious diseases like cryptosporidiosis, an intestinal disease that causes upset stomach and diarrhea. Two public health researchers have created a model that takes into account weather and other factors that affect the number of people who will fall ill during an outbreak. With this model they show that the risk of weather-sensitive diseases may increase with climate variability or even gradual climate change. Better understanding of the ways in which climate can affect disease will help researchers forecast infectious disease outbreaks and design early warning systems.

In a paper published in Environmetrics, first author Elena Naumova, PhD, associate professor in the Department of Public Health and Family Medicine at Tufts University School of Medicine in Boston and co-author Ian MacNeill, PhD, professor emeritus, in the Department of Statistics & Actuarial Sciences at the University of Western Ontario, introduce a model that takes into consideration the lag time between exposure and infection. The authors then demonstrate this model by analyzing the association between high temperature and daily incidence of cryptosporidiosis in Massachusetts from 1996-2001.

In this new model, Naumova and MacNeill consider several factors: outdoor temperature, base level of a disease in a community before an outbreak, the number of people infected throughout the course of the outbreak, and incubation time of a given disease. "It is this last factor that affects what we call the lag time," says Naumova, "infected individuals go on to infect others, and current models may be underestimating the number of cases in an outbreak by failing to account for lag time."

"To consider such time-distributed lags is a challenging task given that the length of a latent period varies from hours to months and depends on the type of pathogen, individual susceptibility to the pathogen, dose of exposure, route of transmission and many other factors," write the authors. "Using data from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health, we demonstrated that the number of cases of cryptosporidiosis increased and can be sustained over the 21 days following a temperature spike exceeding 90 degrees Fahrenheit. This model is able to provide an accurate estimate of cases of cryptosporidiosis that can be attributed to both lag time and the weather," says Naumova.

"We hope that this model can be expanded upon by public health researchers to gain insight into how disease is spread, and what populations are most susceptible. Our goal is to tailor this model for specific climate regions, infections and at-risk subpopulations, and look for patterns between outbreaks. Continually refining our models will enable us to assess the effects of climate change on human health and make better projections about future infectious disease outbreaks," says Naumova.

This work builds on Naumova's previous research developing mathematical models to predict, more accurately, the timing, severity and impact of diseases. Naumova, a biostatistician, is the director of the Tufts Initiative for the Forecasting and Modeling of Infectious Diseases (Tufts InForMID). This group aims to improve biomedical research by developing innovative computational tools in order to assist life science researchers, public health professionals, and policy makers. Her research focus is developing tools for time series and longitudinal data to study disease surveillance, exposure assessment, and studies of growth.


'/>"/>

Contact: Siobhan Gallagher
617-636-6586
Tufts University, Health Sciences
Source:Eurekalert

Related medicine news :

1. New study examines brain-gut relationship in those suffering with stomach pain or discomfort
2. Stomach Virus a Culprit in Chronic Fatigue Syndrome
3. Chronic fatigue syndrome linked to stomach virus
4. Dont Ignore Tough or Long-Term Stomach Pain
5. Positioning pelvic cancer patients on stomachs for radiation yields better results
6. Chemo Drug Improves Stomach Cancer Survival for Japanese Patients
7. Holiday Travel, Bad Eating Habits a Recipe for Stomach Trouble
8. Stomach Flu Spread By Contaminated Computer Keyboards
9. Staying Dry at Beach May Spare Your Stomach
10. Vaccine Could Cut Bouts With Stomach Flu
11. Vaccine for stomach flu may be possible, UNC research shows
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:8/18/2017)... (PRWEB) , ... August 18, ... ... d/b/a Quick International, LLC (“Quick”), a highly specialized asset-light logistics provider of ... entered into a definitive agreement to purchase Unitrans International Corporation, a division ...
(Date:8/18/2017)... NY (PRWEB) , ... August 18, 2017 , ... ... of “Vision & Hearing” campaign, advocating for active, healthy lifestyles and highlighting the ... available for individuals with hearing impairments and shares the latest innovations in hearing ...
(Date:8/18/2017)... McLean, VA (PRWEB) , ... August 18, 2017 ... ... offers asset protection services and financial consultations to communities throughout the greater DC ... Semper K9 with the goal of rescuing local animals and training them to ...
(Date:8/18/2017)... ... August 18, 2017 , ... MLM Insurance Group, a Miami ... southern Florida, is working to support the Take Stock In Children Foundation during ... families. , The Take Stock In Children Foundation (TSC) offers guidance and assistance ...
(Date:8/18/2017)... ... August 18, 2017 , ... The Golseth Agency, a Texas based insurance management ... spearheading a regional charity campaign organized to provide support to Christina Upchurch and her ... year, Christina and her children returned from out of town to find her husband ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:7/27/2017)... Services, Inc. (NYSE: WST ) today announced ... financial guidance for the full-year 2017. ... Reported net sales of $397.6 million, a record high, ... constant currency (organic) grew by 3.9%. ... in the prior-year quarter. Second-quarter 2017 adjusted diluted EPS ...
(Date:7/26/2017)... SINGAPORE , July 27, 2017  Radium Medical Aesthetics, a ... LASEMD, designed to delay aging by effectively addressing several skin conditions ... the skin to become rougher and more fragile. The skin becomes ... the unavoidable exposure to the harmful UV rays from the sun ... hyperpigmentation. ...
(Date:7/26/2017)... , July 26, 2017 The Galien ... Prix Galien USA Award Nominees. Counted ... Prix Galien Award recognizes outstanding biomedical and technology product achievement ... To qualify, each candidate must be U.S. Food ... five years and demonstrate tremendous potential to impact human health. ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: