Navigation Links
Using transportation data to predict pandemics
Date:2/16/2013

In a world of increasing global connections, predicting the spread of infectious diseases is more complicated than ever. Pandemics no longer follow the patterns they did centuries ago, when diseases swept through populations town by town; instead, they spread quickly and seemingly at random, spurred by the interactions of 3 billion air travelers per year.

A computational model developed by Northwestern University's Dirk Brockmann could provide better insight into how today's diseases might strike. Brockmann, an associate professor of engineering sciences and applied mathematics at the McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science, uses transportation data to develop models that better pinpoint the source of an outbreak and help determine how a disease could spread.

Brockmann will discuss his research in a presentation titled "Are Pandemics Predictable?" at the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) annual meeting in Boston. His presentation is part of the symposium "Predictability: From Physical to Data Sciences" to be held from 8:30 to 11:30 a.m. on Saturday, Feb. 16.

The ability to pinpoint with certainty the location of a pandemic outbreak and to predict where and how quickly it will spread would give governments and clinicians an important -- and potentially lifesaving -- advantage in responding to the disease, but current prediction models are limited.

Previous pandemic models have been based on geographical distance, but geography provides an incomplete picture of a pandemic. For instance, New York City and London are geographically very far apart, but with approximately 10,000 people traveling between the cities each day, the cities are far more connected than, for instance, New York City and Milwaukee, which are geographically closer.

"Furthermore, cities with a very high level of connectedness, such as London, are important epicenters for tracking the spread of diseases," Brockmann said. "When a disease reaches these cities, it is likely to spread far and quickly."

Using network theory and official transportation data, Brockmann developed a model that can generate with high accuracy the origin of an outbreak and the predicted arrival times of a pandemic in specific locations. The model can generate these findings using only data about the geographical location and number of occurrences of the disease.

"Spatial disease dynamics become far more straightforward when viewed from the right perspective using our technique," Brockmann said.


'/>"/>
Contact: Megan Fellman
fellman@northwestern.edu
847-491-3115
Northwestern University
Source:Eurekalert

Related medicine news :

1. New - Renaissance Age Serum, a Revival in Swiss Anti-Aging Skin Care; Improve Skin Texture for a More Youthful Appearance using Gerda Spillmann’s Newest Anti-Aging Serum
2. CSHL scientists identify a new strategy for interfering with a potent cancer-causing gene
3. Researchers Identify Involuntary Tobacco Smoke Exposure in Boston Public Housing Authority Residents with Salivary Cotinine Testing from Salimetrics.
4. Binge drinking increases risk of Type 2 diabetes by causing insulin resistance
5. Using Twitter to track the flu: A better way to screen the Tweets
6. Temple scientists find cancer-causing virus in the brain, potential connection to epilepsy
7. Quorn Foods Inc. Responds to an Article on How to Go Vegetarian with a Toddler Using Easy Vegetarian Meals
8. US Drug Watchdog Now Urges Women Who Had A Out Of The Blue Heart Attack Or Stroke Who Were Also Using Yaz or Yasmin Birth Control Pills To Call The Johnson Law Group ASAP
9. Many More Doctors Using Electronic Health Records
10. Using lysine estimates to detect heat damage in DDGS
11. ZijaExtreme.com Researches Vitamin D Deficiency & Using a More Natural Approach
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:6/24/2016)... ... 2016 , ... Global law firm Greenberg Traurig, P.A. announced that 20 Florida ... their peers for this recognition are considered among the top 2 percent of lawyers ... as members of this year’s Legal Elite Hall of Fame: Miami Shareholders Mark ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... , ... June 24, 2016 , ... ... at the Clinical Decision Making in Emergency Medicine conference in Ponte Vedra Beach, ... journal articles published in Emergency Medicine Practice and Pediatric Emergency Medicine ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... ... June 24, 2016 , ... Venture Construction Group (VCG) ... held on June 20th at the Woodmont Country Club at 1201 Rockville Pike, Rockville, ... dedicated to helping service members that have been wounded in battle and their families. ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... ... June 24, 2016 , ... Southern Illinois University School ... for the Illinois State Dental Society (ISDS) Foundation’s Mission of Mercy (MOM). They ... Center in Collinsville. , They expect to treat approximately 2,000 patients ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... ... June 23, 2016 , ... An article ... a possible link between head and neck cancer in individuals with unhealthy oral hygiene ... were evaluated based on whether they had gum disease, brushed their teeth on a ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:6/23/2016)... 23, 2016 , , , ... 7, 2016 , , , , LOCATION: , , , ... , , , EXPERT PANELISTS:  , , , Frost & Sullivan,s ... Christi Bird; Senior Industry Analyst, Divyaa Ravishankar and Unmesh Lal, Program ... global pharmaceutical industry is witnessing an exceptional era. Several new demand ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... 2016 The vast majority of dialysis patients ... Treatments are usually 3 times a week, with treatment ... travel time, equipment preparation and wait time.  This regimen ... for patients who are elderly and frail.  Many elderly ... rehabilitation centers for some duration of time. ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... 23, 2016 Leading BioSciences Inc., a ... conditions resulting from a breakdown of the mucosal ... Greg Doyle as chief executive officer. Mr. ... management team and board of directors, previously served ... He will provide continued leadership and strategic direction ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: