Navigation Links
Using transportation data to predict pandemics
Date:2/16/2013

In a world of increasing global connections, predicting the spread of infectious diseases is more complicated than ever. Pandemics no longer follow the patterns they did centuries ago, when diseases swept through populations town by town; instead, they spread quickly and seemingly at random, spurred by the interactions of 3 billion air travelers per year.

A computational model developed by Northwestern University's Dirk Brockmann could provide better insight into how today's diseases might strike. Brockmann, an associate professor of engineering sciences and applied mathematics at the McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science, uses transportation data to develop models that better pinpoint the source of an outbreak and help determine how a disease could spread.

Brockmann will discuss his research in a presentation titled "Are Pandemics Predictable?" at the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) annual meeting in Boston. His presentation is part of the symposium "Predictability: From Physical to Data Sciences" to be held from 8:30 to 11:30 a.m. on Saturday, Feb. 16.

The ability to pinpoint with certainty the location of a pandemic outbreak and to predict where and how quickly it will spread would give governments and clinicians an important -- and potentially lifesaving -- advantage in responding to the disease, but current prediction models are limited.

Previous pandemic models have been based on geographical distance, but geography provides an incomplete picture of a pandemic. For instance, New York City and London are geographically very far apart, but with approximately 10,000 people traveling between the cities each day, the cities are far more connected than, for instance, New York City and Milwaukee, which are geographically closer.

"Furthermore, cities with a very high level of connectedness, such as London, are important epicenters for tracking the spread of diseases," Brockmann said. "When a disease reaches these cities, it is likely to spread far and quickly."

Using network theory and official transportation data, Brockmann developed a model that can generate with high accuracy the origin of an outbreak and the predicted arrival times of a pandemic in specific locations. The model can generate these findings using only data about the geographical location and number of occurrences of the disease.

"Spatial disease dynamics become far more straightforward when viewed from the right perspective using our technique," Brockmann said.


'/>"/>
Contact: Megan Fellman
fellman@northwestern.edu
847-491-3115
Northwestern University
Source:Eurekalert

Related medicine news :

1. New - Renaissance Age Serum, a Revival in Swiss Anti-Aging Skin Care; Improve Skin Texture for a More Youthful Appearance using Gerda Spillmann’s Newest Anti-Aging Serum
2. CSHL scientists identify a new strategy for interfering with a potent cancer-causing gene
3. Researchers Identify Involuntary Tobacco Smoke Exposure in Boston Public Housing Authority Residents with Salivary Cotinine Testing from Salimetrics.
4. Binge drinking increases risk of Type 2 diabetes by causing insulin resistance
5. Using Twitter to track the flu: A better way to screen the Tweets
6. Temple scientists find cancer-causing virus in the brain, potential connection to epilepsy
7. Quorn Foods Inc. Responds to an Article on How to Go Vegetarian with a Toddler Using Easy Vegetarian Meals
8. US Drug Watchdog Now Urges Women Who Had A Out Of The Blue Heart Attack Or Stroke Who Were Also Using Yaz or Yasmin Birth Control Pills To Call The Johnson Law Group ASAP
9. Many More Doctors Using Electronic Health Records
10. Using lysine estimates to detect heat damage in DDGS
11. ZijaExtreme.com Researches Vitamin D Deficiency & Using a More Natural Approach
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:6/25/2016)... Aliso Viejo, California (PRWEB) , ... June 25, 2016 , ... ... preset to fit their specific project," said Christina Austin - CEO of Pixel Film ... all fully customizable and all within Final Cut Pro X . Simply select ...
(Date:6/25/2016)... ... ... Conventional wisdom preaches the benefits of moderation, whether it’s a matter of ... too high can result in disappointment, perhaps even self-loathing. However, those who set the ... Research from PsychTests.com reveals that behind the tendency to set low expectations ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... ... June 24, 2016 , ... The Pulmonary Hypertension Association ... it will receive two significant new grants to support its work to advance ... 25th anniversary by recognizing patients, medical professionals and scientists for their work in ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... ... ... People across the U.S. are sharpening their pencils and honing their writing skills ... patients and their families pay tribute to a genetic counselor by nominating him or ... Counselors (NSGC) Annual Education Conference (AEC) this September. , In April, Genome magazine ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... ... June 24, 2016 , ... National recruitment firm Slone ... executive with extensive sequencing and genomics experience, as Vice President of North American Capital ... will be responsible for leading the sales team in the commercialization of the HTG ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:6/24/2016)... Belgium , June 24, 2016 /PRNewswire/ ... announced the appointment of Dr. Edward Futcher ... a Non-Executive Director, effective June 23, 2016.Dr. Futcher ... and Nominations and Governance Committees.  As a non-executive ... provide independent expertise and strategic counsel to VolitionRx ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... 23, 2016 Research and Markets has ... - Forecast to 2022" report to their offering. ... for the patients with kidney failure, it replaces the function ... the patient,s blood and thus the treatment helps to keep ... in balance. Increasing number of ESRD patients ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... Ill. , June 23, 2016  In a startling report ... are failing their residents by lacking a comprehensive, proven plan to ... a definitive ranking of how states are tackling the worst ... to only four states – Kentucky , ... Vermont . Of the 28 failing states, three ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: