Navigation Links
Using transportation data to predict pandemics
Date:2/16/2013

In a world of increasing global connections, predicting the spread of infectious diseases is more complicated than ever. Pandemics no longer follow the patterns they did centuries ago, when diseases swept through populations town by town; instead, they spread quickly and seemingly at random, spurred by the interactions of 3 billion air travelers per year.

A computational model developed by Northwestern University's Dirk Brockmann could provide better insight into how today's diseases might strike. Brockmann, an associate professor of engineering sciences and applied mathematics at the McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science, uses transportation data to develop models that better pinpoint the source of an outbreak and help determine how a disease could spread.

Brockmann will discuss his research in a presentation titled "Are Pandemics Predictable?" at the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) annual meeting in Boston. His presentation is part of the symposium "Predictability: From Physical to Data Sciences" to be held from 8:30 to 11:30 a.m. on Saturday, Feb. 16.

The ability to pinpoint with certainty the location of a pandemic outbreak and to predict where and how quickly it will spread would give governments and clinicians an important -- and potentially lifesaving -- advantage in responding to the disease, but current prediction models are limited.

Previous pandemic models have been based on geographical distance, but geography provides an incomplete picture of a pandemic. For instance, New York City and London are geographically very far apart, but with approximately 10,000 people traveling between the cities each day, the cities are far more connected than, for instance, New York City and Milwaukee, which are geographically closer.

"Furthermore, cities with a very high level of connectedness, such as London, are important epicenters for tracking the spread of diseases," Brockmann said. "When a disease reaches these cities, it is likely to spread far and quickly."

Using network theory and official transportation data, Brockmann developed a model that can generate with high accuracy the origin of an outbreak and the predicted arrival times of a pandemic in specific locations. The model can generate these findings using only data about the geographical location and number of occurrences of the disease.

"Spatial disease dynamics become far more straightforward when viewed from the right perspective using our technique," Brockmann said.


'/>"/>
Contact: Megan Fellman
fellman@northwestern.edu
847-491-3115
Northwestern University
Source:Eurekalert

Related medicine news :

1. New - Renaissance Age Serum, a Revival in Swiss Anti-Aging Skin Care; Improve Skin Texture for a More Youthful Appearance using Gerda Spillmann’s Newest Anti-Aging Serum
2. CSHL scientists identify a new strategy for interfering with a potent cancer-causing gene
3. Researchers Identify Involuntary Tobacco Smoke Exposure in Boston Public Housing Authority Residents with Salivary Cotinine Testing from Salimetrics.
4. Binge drinking increases risk of Type 2 diabetes by causing insulin resistance
5. Using Twitter to track the flu: A better way to screen the Tweets
6. Temple scientists find cancer-causing virus in the brain, potential connection to epilepsy
7. Quorn Foods Inc. Responds to an Article on How to Go Vegetarian with a Toddler Using Easy Vegetarian Meals
8. US Drug Watchdog Now Urges Women Who Had A Out Of The Blue Heart Attack Or Stroke Who Were Also Using Yaz or Yasmin Birth Control Pills To Call The Johnson Law Group ASAP
9. Many More Doctors Using Electronic Health Records
10. Using lysine estimates to detect heat damage in DDGS
11. ZijaExtreme.com Researches Vitamin D Deficiency & Using a More Natural Approach
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:3/29/2017)... ... 2017 , ... The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania is pleased ... a $10 million gift to establish the Ken Moelis and Julie Taffet Moelis ... a Wharton MBA for highly-qualified Penn undergraduates whose academic and career interests expand traditional ...
(Date:3/29/2017)... , ... March 29, 2017 , ... VisualSP has helped ... Until recently, the only option for on-premises installation of its Help System for SharePoint ... to install the system into the entire tenant. , The company recently released ...
(Date:3/28/2017)... ... 28, 2017 , ... Tuesday, March 28, 2017, is the annual American Diabetes ... Risk Test to find out if they are at risk for developing Type 2 ... the evening sky by programming the LAX pylons the color red. Downtown’s U.S. Bank ...
(Date:3/28/2017)... ... March 28, 2017 , ... India’s Chigurupati Technologies announced ... address the resolution to globally reduce the harmful use of alcohol set forth ... and TTB approved ingredients that when infused into alcohol, renders the alcohol liver ...
(Date:3/28/2017)... , ... March 28, 2017 , ... ... is pleased to be invited to the Siemens Healthineers annual customer education symposium, ... The event will take place from March 27 - 31, 2017 at the ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:3/29/2017)... 2017 Research and Markets has announced the ... report to their offering. ... The global energy-based aesthetic devices market to grow at ... The report, Global Energy-Based Aesthetic Devices Market 2017-2021, has been prepared ... The report covers the market landscape and its growth prospects over ...
(Date:3/29/2017)... , March 29, 2017  Novartis announced ... (FDA) has accepted the company,s Biologics License Application ... (tisagenlecleucel-T), an investigational chimeric antigen receptor T cell ... and young adult patients with B-cell acute lymphoblastic ... by Novartis for a CAR-T. The priority review ...
(Date:3/29/2017)...  The Global Health Innovative Technology Fund (GHIT ... battle infectious diseases around the globe, today announced ... help deliver a range of new innovative therapies ... This latest round of targeted support includes ... a pediatric formulation of a drug considered the ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: