Navigation Links
UCSF researchers validate new model for breast cancer risk assessment in multiple ethnic groups

Researchers at the University of California, San Francisco have developed a way to quickly estimate a woman's risk for invasive breast cancer. The new model, based on a measure of breast density that is already reported with the majority of mammograms today, is the first to be validated across multiple ethnic groups living in the United States.

The model could one day be used to help calculate a womans risk for breast cancer each time she has a mammogram, providing her with a realistic sense of her likelihood to develop breast cancer in the future.

Breast density is the strongest risk factor after age for developing breast cancer, said lead author Jeffrey Tice, MD, assistant professor in the Department of General Internal Medicine at UCSF. Unfortunately, there is no model currently available to clinicians for assessing breast cancer risk that includes this important risk factor. The model we have created could be a useful tool to improve breast cancer screening and prevention efforts and to help women better understand the magnitude of risk."

The findings are reported in the March 4, 2008 issue of The Annals of Internal Medicine.

The standard and most commonly used risk assessment model available to clinicians today is the Gail model, a previously validated breast cancer risk assessment tool that is primarily based on non-modifiable breast cancer risk factors. The Gail model was developed and validated in Caucasian women only. Tice and colleagues from UCSF and the University of Washington designed a new model that estimates predicted incidence of invasive breast cancer by using breast density, age and ethnicity. The estimates are then adjusted for family history of breast cancer and history of breast biopsy (whether or not a woman had undergone a previous biopsy for a suspect lump or lesion).

Physicians are used to calculating their patients risk for heart disease, but we dont routinely do it for breast cancer, said Tice. Breast density classification in women, assessed during screening mammography, is already part of a routine clinical practice. Our goal was to develop a simple and useful model incorporating this data which estimated a womans risk for invasive breast cancer in multiple ethnic groups.

The research team used data from more than one million women who visited screening mammography sites across the United States between 1996 and 2003. Model calibration was assessed by calculating the ratio of expected cases of breast cancer to observed cases of breast cancer. Calibration, according to the study, assesses how closely the number of women in whom the model predicts that breast cancer will develop matches with the actual number of women in whom breast cancer is diagnosed. An observed ratio of 1.0 would indicate perfect calibration.

Study results showed the model they developed was well calibrated and reasonably accurate across risk factor subgroups. After five years of follow-up, the observed rate of invasive breast cancer was 1.40 percent (8,784 cases of cancer among 629,229 women) compared to the expected rate created by the model of 1.41 percent. However, the model slightly underestimated breast cancer rates in younger women (age 40-44) and underestimated cancer rates among Asian and Hispanic women.

We found that a model that incorporates mammographic breast density can estimate a womans risk for invasive breast cancer and is convenient enough that it could be incorporated into routine breast cancer screening, said Tice. Primary care physicians could use it to calculate a womans five year risk of developing breast cancer.

Tice warns, however, this is not the definitive model for breast cancer risk assessment and that it is unlikely a single model would be able to address all needs in breast cancer risk assessment. Some women will benefit from genetic counseling and screening, other women will require more detailed risk factor assessment, he adds, and this new model, like the Gail model, had only modest ability to discriminate between women overall who will develop breast cancer and those who will not.

One of the more surprising and unexpected findings in this study, according to Tice, was how poorly the Gail model performed in this population of ethnically diverse women. When the researchers compared their model to the Gail model, they found the Gail model was poorly calibrated and underestimated the number of breast cancers by 12 percent. This was particularly true for African American women in whom the Gail model under-predicted the number of breast cancers by 45 percent. The researchers hypothesize this may be because the Gail model was developed and validated in Caucasian women only.

The most important finding of this study is the accuracy of the model across multiple ethnic groups, added Tice. This is strong evidence that supports the inclusion of race and ethnicity in any risk assessment tool created in the future.


Contact: Vanessa deGier
University of California - San Francisco

Related medicine news :

1. Einstein researchers discover gene mutations linked to longer lifespans
2. U-M researchers ID promising new cancer drug
3. Researchers identify new genetic marker for breast cancer
4. Researchers describe mechanisms by which capon gene causes heart rhythm disturbances
5. Researchers develop new tool to predict who will use microbicides
6. USC researchers discover novel way to develop tumor vaccines
7. St. Jude Researchers Find Key Step in Programmed Cell Death
8. St. Jude researchers find key step in programmed cell death
9. Mayo Researchers Look for Explanation Behind High Incidence of Diabetes Among Asian Indians
10. Mayo researchers look for explanation behind high incidence of diabetes among Asian Indians
11. UT Southwestern researchers investigate predictors for sickle-cell-anemia complications
Post Your Comments:
(Date:6/24/2016)... (PRWEB) , ... June 24, 2016 , ... June 19, ... the dangers associated with chronic pain and the benefits of holistic treatments, Serenity ... who are suffering with Sickle Cell Disease. , Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) is a ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... ... June 24, 2016 , ... The Pulmonary Hypertension ... that it will receive two significant new grants to support its work to ... its 25th anniversary by recognizing patients, medical professionals and scientists for their work ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... ... June 24, 2016 , ... Dr. ... accelerated orthodontic treatment. Dr. Cheng has extensive experience with all areas of orthodontics, ... and accelerated osteogenic orthodontics. , Micro-osteoperforation is a revolutionary adjunct to orthodontic ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... ... , ... Topical BioMedics, Inc, makers of Topricin and MyPainAway Pain Relief Products, join The ‘Business ... to $12 an hour by 2020 and then adjusting it yearly to increase at the ... minimum wage, assure the wage floor does not erode again, and make future increases more ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... Norcross, Georgia (PRWEB) , ... June 24, 2016 ... ... Year” awards today at the Clinical Decision Making in Emergency Medicine conference in ... who have authored journal articles published in Emergency Medicine Practice and ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:6/24/2016)... June 24, 2016 Dehaier Medical Systems Ltd. ... which develops, markets and sells medical devices and wearable ... signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Hongyuan Supply Chain ... Chain") on June 20, 2016, to develop Dehaier,s new ... cooperation agreement, Dehaier will leverage Hongyuan Supply Chain,s sales ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... , June 24, 2016   Pulmatrix, Inc ., ... developing innovative inhaled drugs, announced today that it was ... Investments reconstituted its comprehensive set of U.S. and ... "This is an important milestone for Pulmatrix," said Chief ... shareholder awareness of our progress in developing drugs for ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... 2016 Research and Markets has announced ... Forecast to 2022" report to their offering. ... the patients with kidney failure, it replaces the function of ... patient,s blood and thus the treatment helps to keep the ... balance. Increasing number of ESRD patients & ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: