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Time to tumor growth helps predict survival benefit of Bevacizumab for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer
Date:5/8/2013

ST. LOUIS, MO May 8, 2013 Certara, a leading provider of software and scientific consulting services to improve productivity and decision-making from drug discovery through drug development, announced that its Pharsight Consulting Services has developed a mathematical model of tumor growth inhibition, which when combined with baseline prognostic factors, predicts treatment effect with bevacizumab for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. These results are now published online in the Journal of Clinical Oncology. A copy of the results can be obtained here, together with a commentary by Michael Maitland, MD, Ph.D., assistant professor of Medicine in the Section of Hematology/Oncology, and associate director, Committee on Clinical Pharmacology and Pharmacogenomics at the University of Chicago Medicine, Chicago, IL.

Researchers estimated several tumor-size response metrics using longitudinal tumor-size models and data from two Phase III clinical trials, which compared bevacizumab with chemotherapy versus chemotherapy alone as first-line therapy for colorectal cancer. Trial participants included 923 Western and 203 Chinese patients. Baseline prognostic factors and the tumor-size metric estimates were assessed in multivariate models to predict overall survival. Multiple simulations of the Phase III studies were used to test the models' predictive capabilities.

Time to tumor growth proved to be the best metric for predicting overall survival. The proposed model worked equally well when predicting overall survival rates for the Western and Chinese patients and as such could be used to support drug development decisions in either population.

Ren Bruno, Ph.D., managing director of Certara's Pharsight Consulting Services Europe, and senior author of
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Contact: Lisa Osborne
lisa@ranahealth.com
206-992-5245
Rana Healthcare Solutions LLC
Source:Eurekalert

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