Navigation Links
The risks of H7N9 infection mapped
Date:5/3/2013

A map of avian influenza (H7N9) risk is presented in Biomed Central's open access journal Infectious Diseases of Poverty today. The map is comprised of bird migration patterns, and adding in estimations of poultry production and consumption, which are used to infer future risk and to advise on ways to prevent infection.

As of today, there have been 127 confirmed cases of H7N9 in mainland China with 27 deaths. A lack of information about the virus and its mode of transmission has led to public concerns that H7N9 could be a pandemic waiting to happen.

To quantify the risk of this happening scientists from the Hong Kong Baptist University and Chinese University of Hong Kong have generated a map of H7N9 risk in eastern China. The map is based on the northwards migratory patterns of birds (from the 4th February to the end of April) using environmental and meteorological data over the same 12 weeks - from Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Jiangsu, to Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang.

The distribution of potentially infected poultry was also included in the model. The majority of early cases of H7N9 were found in Shanghai, but Shanghai is not a big poultry exporter so the model shows limited transmission via this route. In contrast, Jiangsu distributes poultry to Shanghai, Zhejiang, and beyond.

Prof Jiming Liu who led the study explained, "By basing our model on wild bird migration and distribution of potentially infected poultry we are able to produce a time line of the estimated risk of human infection with H7N9. The preliminary results of our study made a prediction of bird flu risk which could explain the pattern of the most recent cases. By extending the model we will be able to predict future infection risks across central and western China, which will aid in surveillance and control of H7N9 infections. Since the effect of poultry-to-poultry infection is not really understood it may become necessary to regulate the activity of poultry markets."

Prof Xiao-Nong Zhou from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention who was also involved in this study commented, "We are continuing to work on research into the sources of infection of H7N9 and the mode of transmission. However so far there is no evidence of the sustained human-to-human transmission required for a pandemic to occur."


'/>"/>

Contact: Hilary Glover
hilary.glover@biomedcentral.com
44-020-319-22370
BioMed Central
Source:Eurekalert

Related medicine news :

1. DrugRisks News Update: Bayer Loses Yaz Patent as Blood Clot Settlements Continue
2. DrugRisks Adds Update From Court Ordering Mediation of Stryker Hip Lawsuits
3. DrugRisks Update: Federal Court Schedules First Mirena Lawsuit Hearing
4. DrugRisks Legal Update: Jury to Decide Actos Cancer Trial This Week
5. Survived cancer? Now look out for cardiovascular risks
6. DrugRisks Update: Doctor Testifies Actos Main Cause of Bladder Cancer in Trial
7. DrugRisks Adds Study Showing Pradaxa Viral Infection Risk
8. Common Asphalt Sealant May Raise Cancer Risks
9. Balding Men Could Face Higher Heart Risks, Study Finds
10. Young Lacrosse Players Face New Injury Risks
11. DrugRisks Stryker Recall Update: Company Warns Investors as Patients Alleging Injury Ask to Send Lawsuits to Federal Court
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:6/27/2016)... ... June 27, 2016 , ... TherapySites, ... its affiliation with Tennessee Counseling Association. This new relationship allows TherapySites ... Tennessee Counseling Association, adding exclusive benefits and promotional offers. , "TCA is extremely ...
(Date:6/26/2016)... ... , ... Quality metrics are proliferating in cancer care, and are derived from ... of the beholder, according to experts who offered insights and commentary in the current ... For the full issue, click here . , For the American Society of ...
(Date:6/26/2016)... ... ... a legally blind and certified personal trainer is helping to develop a weight loss fitness ... to fix the two major problems leading the fitness industry today:, , ... They don’t eliminate all the reasons people quit their exercise program ...
(Date:6/25/2016)... ... ... The temporary closing of Bruton Memorial Library on June 21 due to a possible lice ... overlooked aspect of head lice: the parasite’s ability to live away from a human host, ... a necessary one in the event that lice have simply gotten out of control. , ...
(Date:6/25/2016)... , ... June 25, 2016 , ... ... and non-athletes recover from injury. Recently, he has implemented orthobiologic procedures as a ... area —Johnson is one of the first doctors to perform the treatment. Orthobiologics ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:6/23/2016)... -- Any dentist who has made an implant supported denture ... of them do not even offer this as a viable ... costs involved. And those who ARE able to offer that ... cost that the majority of today,s patients would not be ... , founder of Dental Evolutions Inc. and inventor of Implanova ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... 2016 Capricor Therapeutics, Inc. ... biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development and ... enrollment in its ongoing randomized HOPE-Duchenne clinical trial ... of its 24-patient target. Capricor expects the trial ... of 2016, and to report top line data ...
(Date:6/23/2016)...  Astellas today announced the establishment of Astellas Farma Colombia (AFC), a new affiliate with operations headquartered in ... . ... ... ... Astellas ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: