Navigation Links
Swine flu: Early findings about pandemic potential reported in new study
Date:5/11/2009

Early findings about the emerging pandemic of a new strain of influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico are published today in Science.

Researchers from the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling at Imperial College London, working in collaboration with the World Health Organisation and public health agencies in Mexico, have assessed the epidemic using data to the end of April. Their key findings are as follows:

  • The data so far is very consistent with what researchers would expect to find in the early stages of a pandemic.
  • The researchers' best estimate is that in Mexico, influenza A (H1N1) is fatal in around 4 in 1,000 cases, which would make this strain of influenza as lethal as the one found in the 1957 pandemic. The researchers stress that healthcare has greatly improved in most countries since 1957 and the world is now better prepared.
  • The epidemic of influenza A (H1N1) is thought to have started in Mexico on 15 February 2009. The data suggests that by the end of April, around 23,000 people were infected with the virus in Mexico and 91 of these died as a result of infection. However, the figures are uncertain for example, some mild cases may have gone unreported. The numbers infected could be as low as 6,000 people or as high as 32,000 people.
  • The uncertainty around the numbers of people who have been infected with influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico means that the case fatality ratio (CFR) of 0.4% (4 deaths per 1000) cannot be definitely established. The CFR is in the range of 0.3% to 1.5%, but at this stage the researchers believe that 0.4% is the most likely.
  • For every person infected, it is likely that there will be between 1.2 and 1.6 secondary cases. This is high compared to normal seasonal influenza, where around 10-15 percent of the population are likely to become infected. However, it is lower than would be expected for pandemic influenza, where 20-30 percent of the population are likely to become infected.
  • In an outbreak in an isolated village called La Gloria, Mexico, children were twice as likely to become infected as adults, with 61% of those aged under 15 becoming infected, compared with 29% of those over 15. This may suggest that adults have some degree of immunity against infection, because of having been previously infected with a related strain of influenza, or it may mean that children are more susceptible to infection because they interact much more closely together, for example in school, than adults.

Professor Neil Ferguson, the corresponding author of today's research from the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling at Imperial College London, said: "Our study shows that this virus is spreading just as we would expect for the early stages of a flu pandemic. So far, it has been following a very similar pattern to the flu pandemic in 1957, in terms of the proportion of people who are becoming infected and the percentage of potentially fatal cases that we are seeing.

"What we're seeing is not the same as seasonal flu and there is still cause for concern we would expect this pandemic to at least double the burden on our healthcare systems. However, this initial modelling suggests that the H1N1 virus is not as easily transmitted or as lethal as that found in the flu pandemic in 1918," added Professor Ferguson.


'/>"/>

Contact: Lucy Goodchild
lucy.goodchild@imperial.ac.uk
44-078-038-86248
Imperial College London
Source:Eurekalert

Related medicine news :

1. CDC Shifts Swine Flu Focus to Likely Impact in the Fall
2. Mach One Corporation Announces Hand Carried Product as a Potential Solution to Swine Flu (H1N1) Virus
3. U.S. Now Leads World in Swine Flu Cases
4. Swine Flu - An Underestimated Threat, Says Economist Intelligence Unit
5. Q-Based Healthcare Warns: Hand Sanitizers Increase Risk of Swine Flu Exposure
6. Third U.S. Swine Flu Death Reported
7. Confirmed Swine Flu Cases in U.S. Near 2,300 Mark
8. As Swine Flu Cases Mount, CDC Says U.S. Hasnt Dodged a Bullet
9. Docs Are Becoming Less Concerned About H1N1 Swine Flu
10. Scientists Still Baffled About Origins of Swine Flu
11. Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common Route for Swine Flu in U.S.
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:1/20/2017)... ... January 20, 2017 , ... Spectrum Aquatics Launches New ADA Portable Motion Trek BP 300 ... the lift is mounted on wheels, it can be wheeled out of the way and ... fasten to the deck. "We have transformed the feedback from customers into specific enhancements and ...
(Date:1/20/2017)... ... 20, 2017 , ... Source Vitál Apothecary, a skin and body care company ... the company had a successful visit to the 2017 ECRM Diet, Vitamin & Sports ... work in the nutritional, sports and health industries a chance to meet in private ...
(Date:1/20/2017)... Florida (PRWEB) , ... January 20, 2017 , ... Lice ... head lice cases in families with school-aged children since the holiday season. , ... the holidays with their families, sharing hugs and taking photos, which is the head-to-head ...
(Date:1/20/2017)... ... January 20, 2017 , ... Michael and Betsy Brauser celebrated 5 years of ... the clinical trial has been life-saving as she has been on the trial ... Brauser was diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2009. She underwent standard chemotherapy but a ...
(Date:1/20/2017)... ... 20, 2017 , ... “Mary Magdalene: Grace is Greater than Sin”: a ... witnessed Jesus Christ firsthand. “Mary Magdalene: Grace is Greater than Sin” is the creation ... educator interacting with countless women who had little knowledge of the female characters portrayed ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:1/19/2017)... -- Accuray Incorporated (Nasdaq: ARAY ) announced ... set the bar for excellence in customer satisfaction. The ... rating among radiation treatment delivery systems in the U.S., ... Briefing™. The most recent ratings trend also shows Accuray ... for 11 of the past 12 quarters. ...
(Date:1/19/2017)... CLEVELAND , Jan. 19, 2017 ViewRay, ... (DFG), a federal institution supporting research in ... installation and patient treatments at the University Clinic Heidelberg ... The MRIdian Linac program will be headed ... who also heads radiation oncology at the German Cancer ...
(Date:1/19/2017)... , January 19, 2017 ... Option to Address Motor Symptoms and Motor Complications ... ...      (Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20151014/276718LOGO) ... , European Neurological Review,2016;11(Suppl. 2): 2-15, http://www.touchneurology.com/articles/safinamide-new-therapeutic-option-address-motor-symptoms-and-motor-complications-mid-late ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: