Navigation Links
Swine flu: Early findings about pandemic potential reported in new study
Date:5/11/2009

Early findings about the emerging pandemic of a new strain of influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico are published today in Science.

Researchers from the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling at Imperial College London, working in collaboration with the World Health Organisation and public health agencies in Mexico, have assessed the epidemic using data to the end of April. Their key findings are as follows:

  • The data so far is very consistent with what researchers would expect to find in the early stages of a pandemic.
  • The researchers' best estimate is that in Mexico, influenza A (H1N1) is fatal in around 4 in 1,000 cases, which would make this strain of influenza as lethal as the one found in the 1957 pandemic. The researchers stress that healthcare has greatly improved in most countries since 1957 and the world is now better prepared.
  • The epidemic of influenza A (H1N1) is thought to have started in Mexico on 15 February 2009. The data suggests that by the end of April, around 23,000 people were infected with the virus in Mexico and 91 of these died as a result of infection. However, the figures are uncertain for example, some mild cases may have gone unreported. The numbers infected could be as low as 6,000 people or as high as 32,000 people.
  • The uncertainty around the numbers of people who have been infected with influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico means that the case fatality ratio (CFR) of 0.4% (4 deaths per 1000) cannot be definitely established. The CFR is in the range of 0.3% to 1.5%, but at this stage the researchers believe that 0.4% is the most likely.
  • For every person infected, it is likely that there will be between 1.2 and 1.6 secondary cases. This is high compared to normal seasonal influenza, where around 10-15 percent of the population are likely to become infected. However, it is lower than would be expected for pandemic influenza, where 20-30 percent of the population are likely to beco
    '/>"/>

Contact: Lucy Goodchild
lucy.goodchild@imperial.ac.uk
44-078-038-86248
Imperial College London
Source:Eurekalert

Page: 1 2

Related medicine news :

1. CDC Shifts Swine Flu Focus to Likely Impact in the Fall
2. Mach One Corporation Announces Hand Carried Product as a Potential Solution to Swine Flu (H1N1) Virus
3. U.S. Now Leads World in Swine Flu Cases
4. Swine Flu - An Underestimated Threat, Says Economist Intelligence Unit
5. Q-Based Healthcare Warns: Hand Sanitizers Increase Risk of Swine Flu Exposure
6. Third U.S. Swine Flu Death Reported
7. Confirmed Swine Flu Cases in U.S. Near 2,300 Mark
8. As Swine Flu Cases Mount, CDC Says U.S. Hasnt Dodged a Bullet
9. Docs Are Becoming Less Concerned About H1N1 Swine Flu
10. Scientists Still Baffled About Origins of Swine Flu
11. Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common Route for Swine Flu in U.S.
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:4/22/2014)... The Association for Molecular Pathology (AMP) released a ... Diagnostics on recommendations for a molecular diagnostics ... of education. The report was prepared by the ... the AMP Training and Education Committee. "Our goal ... future medical laboratory scientists appropriately in order to ...
(Date:4/22/2014)... have found a way to block abnormal cholesterol production, ... the main cause of heart attacks and strokes and ... develops when fat builds inside blood vessels over time ... their ability to feed oxygen-rich blood to the heart ... experiments, described April 7 in the journal Circulation ...
(Date:4/22/2014)... German . , ... their mode of action is complex: In low concentrations ... while at high concentrations they can cause "oxidative stress", ... redox signaling unfolds in single cells and organelles in ... jointly by the teams of LMU Professor Martin Kerschensteiner ...
(Date:4/22/2014)... massive health care spending, a new RAND study concludes ... incentivize pharmaceutical companies and device makers to develop products ... medical technologies and their use, a new study suggests ... medical devices get created in the first place. The ... as little loss of health as possible and to ...
(Date:4/22/2014)... all seem to know who we say is neurotic and ... unable to act but simply doesn,t want to., ... of nearly 4,000 college students in 19 countries has uncovered ... and moving forward with life. Turns out that when they ... don,t like it as much as non-neurotics. Therefore persuasive communications ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):Health News:AMP publishes curriculum recommendations for medical laboratory scientists 2Health News:Scientists alter fat metabolism in animals to prevent most common type of heart disease 2Health News:Scientists alter fat metabolism in animals to prevent most common type of heart disease 3Health News:Scientists alter fat metabolism in animals to prevent most common type of heart disease 4Health News:Neuroimaging: Live from inside the cell 2Health News:US medical innovation needs smarter incentives to cut health spending, study finds 2Health News:US medical innovation needs smarter incentives to cut health spending, study finds 3Health News:Neurotics don't just avoid action: They dislike it 2
... HealthDay Reporter , WEDNESDAY, April 27 (HealthDay News) -- If ... to be more severe than having one at any other time ... the heart attack happens between 6 a.m. and noon, it is ... heart attack occurring in the afternoon or evening, the researchers added. ...
... quality of life (HRQOL) for U.S. adults with arthritis is ... and mental health are affected by arthritis, which poses a ... diagnosed continues to climb. Details of this study are now ... published by Wiley-Blackwell on behalf of the American College of ...
... heart attack are likely to be more seriously affected if the ... in Heart journal. Heart attacks that occur between ... area of dead tissue (infarct) caused by the attack, which is ... of the day., , It is well established that a person,s ...
... April 27 (HealthDay News) -- The growing number of people ... people are becoming caregivers, a responsibility that health experts warn ... can take various steps to protect their health, says Rebecca ... Center in Houston. To keep stress in check, for ...
... By Kathleen Doheny HealthDay Reporter , WEDNESDAY, ... been known to improve blood sugar control, often sending ... have long wondered exactly how that happens. Now, ... acids linked with insulin resistance decline dramatically in those ...
... , BOSTON--Like brainy bookworms unprepared for the rough and tumble ... attack tumors tend to fade away quickly when injected into ... technique that can cause such cells to survive in patients, ... the need of other, highly toxic treatments, a new study ...
Cached Medicine News:Health News:Morning Heart Attacks Cause More Damage, Study Finds 2Health News:Morning Heart Attacks Cause More Damage, Study Finds 3Health News:Adults with arthritis suffer with poorer health related quality of life 2Health News:Heart attacks are more serious if they occur at certain times of the day 2Health News:Alzheimer's Caregivers Need Care, Too 2Health News:New Clues to How Gastric Bypass Surgery Combats Diabetes 2Health News:New Clues to How Gastric Bypass Surgery Combats Diabetes 3Health News:New technique extends cancer-fighting cells' potency in melanoma patients 2Health News:New technique extends cancer-fighting cells' potency in melanoma patients 3Health News:New technique extends cancer-fighting cells' potency in melanoma patients 4
(Date:1/15/2014)... TORONTO , Jan. 15, 2014  According to ... medical technology market intelligence, the United ... occlusion (TEO) device markets will expand moderately through ... fastest-growing segments. In particular, increasing interest in drug-eluting ...
(Date:1/15/2014)... , Jan. 15, 2014 ... research report is available in its ... Markets and Technologies for Advanced Drug ... of Administration ...
(Date:1/14/2014)... Jan. 14, 2014 InformEx, North America,s ... high-value chemistry, will hold the 30 th edition of ... Convention Center from January 21-24. (Logo: ... top pharmaceutical, fine chemical and specialty chemical companies will take ...
Breaking Medicine Technology:US and European Transcatheter Embolization and Occlusion Device Market to Surpass $1.6 Billion by 2022 2US and European Transcatheter Embolization and Occlusion Device Market to Surpass $1.6 Billion by 2022 3Global Markets and Technologies for Advanced Drug Delivery Systems -- Focus on Routes of Administration 2Global Markets and Technologies for Advanced Drug Delivery Systems -- Focus on Routes of Administration 3Global Markets and Technologies for Advanced Drug Delivery Systems -- Focus on Routes of Administration 4Global Markets and Technologies for Advanced Drug Delivery Systems -- Focus on Routes of Administration 5Global Markets and Technologies for Advanced Drug Delivery Systems -- Focus on Routes of Administration 6Global Markets and Technologies for Advanced Drug Delivery Systems -- Focus on Routes of Administration 7Global Markets and Technologies for Advanced Drug Delivery Systems -- Focus on Routes of Administration 8Global Markets and Technologies for Advanced Drug Delivery Systems -- Focus on Routes of Administration 9Global Markets and Technologies for Advanced Drug Delivery Systems -- Focus on Routes of Administration 10Global Markets and Technologies for Advanced Drug Delivery Systems -- Focus on Routes of Administration 11Global Markets and Technologies for Advanced Drug Delivery Systems -- Focus on Routes of Administration 12Global Markets and Technologies for Advanced Drug Delivery Systems -- Focus on Routes of Administration 13Global Markets and Technologies for Advanced Drug Delivery Systems -- Focus on Routes of Administration 14Global Markets and Technologies for Advanced Drug Delivery Systems -- Focus on Routes of Administration 15Global Markets and Technologies for Advanced Drug Delivery Systems -- Focus on Routes of Administration 16Media Advisory: InformEx 2014 Events & Speaker Lineup for 30th Edition Conference in Miami Beach 2
... designed for patient comfort as well as dependable ... at 5cm intervals and line marked each centimeter., ... available spanning most clinical needs and the range ... or two sensors., ,Flexilog single-use catheters are ...
... for 24-hour esophageal pH monitoring. , ... are reusable up to five times. ... same high quality materials as the ... available in many configurations., ,Contact ...
... VersaFlex™ disposable pH catheter is used ... worldwide for evaluating acid reflux events., ... esophageal pH monitoring. , ,Alpine's ... esophageal catheter on the market (4.7 ...
... single-use pH catheters are efficient, economical, ... allow greater patient comfort during the ... measurement systems have been designed to ... an accurate room-temperature calibration. The temperature ...
Medicine Products: