Navigation Links
Swine flu: Early findings about pandemic potential reported in new study
Date:5/11/2009

Early findings about the emerging pandemic of a new strain of influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico are published today in Science.

Researchers from the MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling at Imperial College London, working in collaboration with the World Health Organisation and public health agencies in Mexico, have assessed the epidemic using data to the end of April. Their key findings are as follows:

  • The data so far is very consistent with what researchers would expect to find in the early stages of a pandemic.
  • The researchers' best estimate is that in Mexico, influenza A (H1N1) is fatal in around 4 in 1,000 cases, which would make this strain of influenza as lethal as the one found in the 1957 pandemic. The researchers stress that healthcare has greatly improved in most countries since 1957 and the world is now better prepared.
  • The epidemic of influenza A (H1N1) is thought to have started in Mexico on 15 February 2009. The data suggests that by the end of April, around 23,000 people were infected with the virus in Mexico and 91 of these died as a result of infection. However, the figures are uncertain for example, some mild cases may have gone unreported. The numbers infected could be as low as 6,000 people or as high as 32,000 people.
  • The uncertainty around the numbers of people who have been infected with influenza A (H1N1) in Mexico means that the case fatality ratio (CFR) of 0.4% (4 deaths per 1000) cannot be definitely established. The CFR is in the range of 0.3% to 1.5%, but at this stage the researchers believe that 0.4% is the most likely.
  • For every person infected, it is likely that there will be between 1.2 and 1.6 secondary cases. This is high compared to normal seasonal influenza, where around 10-15 percent of the population are likely to become infected. However, it is lower than would be expected for pandemic influenza, where 20-30 percent of the population are likely to beco
    '/>"/>

Contact: Lucy Goodchild
lucy.goodchild@imperial.ac.uk
44-078-038-86248
Imperial College London
Source:Eurekalert

Page: 1 2

Related medicine news :

1. CDC Shifts Swine Flu Focus to Likely Impact in the Fall
2. Mach One Corporation Announces Hand Carried Product as a Potential Solution to Swine Flu (H1N1) Virus
3. U.S. Now Leads World in Swine Flu Cases
4. Swine Flu - An Underestimated Threat, Says Economist Intelligence Unit
5. Q-Based Healthcare Warns: Hand Sanitizers Increase Risk of Swine Flu Exposure
6. Third U.S. Swine Flu Death Reported
7. Confirmed Swine Flu Cases in U.S. Near 2,300 Mark
8. As Swine Flu Cases Mount, CDC Says U.S. Hasnt Dodged a Bullet
9. Docs Are Becoming Less Concerned About H1N1 Swine Flu
10. Scientists Still Baffled About Origins of Swine Flu
11. Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common Route for Swine Flu in U.S.
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:4/17/2014)... Hospital Pediatrician-in-Chief Jon McCullers, MD, was recently invited ... of Nature Reviews Microbiology , one of ... a world-renowned infectious disease specialist, and chair of ... Tennessee Health Science Center, analyzed the epidemiology and ... 1968 pandemics, as well as more recent 2009 ...
(Date:4/17/2014)... 10 million older Americans suffer from depression, often brought ... new research a project that followed the lives ... found that Internet use among the elderly can ... percent. , "That,s a very strong effect," said Shelia ... studies and media who led the project. "And it ...
(Date:4/17/2014)... BostonResearchers from Boston University School of Medicine (BUSM) ... alcohol consumption in an experimental model. The findings, ... and Alcohol Abuse , may lead to more ... alcohol is one of the leading causes of ... significant negative economic impact by limiting the productivity ...
(Date:4/17/2014)... Cesar A. Arias, M.D., Ph.D., at The University of ... a new superbug that caused a bloodstream infection in ... 17 issue of The New England Journal of ... a class of highly-resistant bacteria known as methicillin-resistant ... cause of hospital and community-associated infections. The superbug has ...
(Date:4/17/2014)... blood flow and alleviates muscle soreness after exercise, ... University of Illinois at Chicago. , The study, ... Archives of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation , ... people who had not exercised, suggesting that massage ... of physical activity. , Improved circulation and relief ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):Health News:Internet use can help ward off depression among elderly 2Health News:BUSM researchers find anti-seizure drug may reduce alcohol consumption 2Health News:New MRSA superbug emerges in Brazil 2Health News:Massage therapy improves circulation, eases muscle soreness 2
... ... ‘death panel’ claim as the year’s biggest lie. Finalist for biggest lies also include ... ... PolitiFact.com , the Pulitzer Prize-winning fact-checking Web site of the St. Petersburg Times, ...
... WASHINGTON, Dec. 20 Following is the daily "Profile America" feature ... , SUNDAY, DECEMBER 20: FIRST ORGAN TRANSPLANT , ... transplant in the U.S. was performed this week in 1954 in ... from one identical twin to another, who lived just over eight ...
... health care focuses on costs, a new study from North ... to think of health care spending as an investment that ... projections of health care costs and financing may be unduly ... investment in future capital, contributing to a productive workforce, rather ...
... , WASHINGTON, Dec. 19 Official statement ... , "Majority Leader Reid,s amendment to the Senate health care bill ... current federal law and policy. It does not prevent federal ... protect health care providers who choose to exercise their rights of ...
... , Calls on Senator Ben Nelson to Not ... Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) released his long awaited ... The new language is being trumpeted as including an opt-out ... bill worse by requiring the state to either cover all ...
... out of reach of little hands , SATURDAY, Dec. 19 ... at least judging by statistics from a single hospital, but ... say they should be on the list of seasonal safety ... children are treated at Children,s Hospital Boston,s emergency department each ...
Cached Medicine News:Health News:PolitiFact Names 'Death Panels' Claim the Lie of the Year 2Health News:U.S. Census Bureau Daily Feature for Dec. 20 2Health News:Study shows health care spending spurs economic growth 2Health News:Americans United for Life Action: 'Senate Health Care Bill Absolutely Fails To Meet Abortion and Life Protections.' 2Health News:Americans United for Life Action: 'Senate Health Care Bill Absolutely Fails To Meet Abortion and Life Protections.' 3Health News:FRC Rejects Phony Abortion 'Compromise' 2
(Date:1/15/2014)... Calif. , Jan. 15, 2014 Massachusetts ... (NASDAQ: AMGN ) announced today that ... discover and validate new therapeutic targets and develop ... chronic disorder that affects millions worldwide. The MGH-Broad-Amgen ...
(Date:1/15/2014)... LOUISVILLE, Ky. , Jan. 15, 2014  Manufacturers, ... technologies must be able to protect their most ... (Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20130716/CL46586LOGO ) Because ... Industry, it steadfastly remains one of the most ...
(Date:1/15/2014)...  Echo Therapeutics, Inc. (Nasdaq: ECTE ) ("Echo"), ... as a non-invasive, wireless continuous glucose monitoring system, today ... and Interim CEO of Echo Therapeutics, will present at ... Mr. Doman will make a corporate ...
Breaking Medicine Technology:Mass. General, Broad Institute and Amgen Will Work to Discover New Drugs for Inflammatory Bowel Disease 2Mass. General, Broad Institute and Amgen Will Work to Discover New Drugs for Inflammatory Bowel Disease 3Mass. General, Broad Institute and Amgen Will Work to Discover New Drugs for Inflammatory Bowel Disease 4Intellectual Property Insurance for Medical-related Products and Services 2Echo Therapeutics to Present at the Noble Financial Capital Markets' Tenth Annual Equity Conference 2Echo Therapeutics to Present at the Noble Financial Capital Markets' Tenth Annual Equity Conference 3
... Conatus Pharmaceuticals Inc., a privately held, clinical stage ... Hepatitis C Virus (HCV), announced today that Steven J. ... at the Montgomery Healthcare Conference being held in Menlo ... of only 30 companies selected to present to this ...
... Hospital of Arcadia, California, has launched an integrated ... solutions designed to help improve the quality of ... health care information technology subsidiary of Quest Diagnostics ... solution to help Methodist reduce the length of ...
Cached Medicine Technology:Conatus Pharmaceuticals to Present at the Montgomery Healthcare Conference 2Methodist Hospital Adopts New Technology Solutions to Improve Care for California Patients and Reduce Operating Costs 2Methodist Hospital Adopts New Technology Solutions to Improve Care for California Patients and Reduce Operating Costs 3Methodist Hospital Adopts New Technology Solutions to Improve Care for California Patients and Reduce Operating Costs 4
The Optima III 45 cm line of laparoscopic hand instruments is ideal for operative laparoscopic/endoscopic procedures or when a longer instrument is needed....
The Optima III line of laparoscopic hand instruments provides a well-crafted set of instruments designed for strength and durability....
The Optima III line of laparoscopic hand instruments provides a well-crafted set of instruments designed for strength and durability....
The Optima III line of laparoscopic hand instruments provides a well-crafted set of instruments designed for strength and durability....
Medicine Products: