Report finds demand could exceed supply in 15 states

THURSDAY, Oct. 1 (HealthDay News) -- There could be a shortage of hospital beds in 15 states if 35 percent of Americans get sick from the H1N1 (swine) flu virus, and 12 other states could reach or exceed 75 percent of their hospital bed capacity, a study released Thursday shows.

The number of people who could get sick with H1N1 flu in the United States ranges from a high of 12.9 million in California and a low of 186,434 in Wyoming, and the number of people who are hospitalized could range from a high of 168,025 in California to a low of 2,485 in Wyoming, according to the report from the non-profit group Trust for America's Health.

The 15 states that could be at capacity or exceed hospital bed capacity are: Arizona (117 percent); California (125 percent); Connecticut (148 percent); Delaware (203 percent); Hawaii (143 percent); Maryland (143 percent); Massachusetts (110 percent); Nevada (137 percent); New Jersey (101 percent); New York (108 percent); Oregon (107 percent); Rhode Island (143 percent); Vermont (108 percent); Virginia (100 percent); and Washington (107 percent).

The 12 states that could be at 75 percent to 99 percent of hospital bed capacity are: Colorado (88 percent); Florida (80 percent); Georgia (78 percent); Maine (83 percent); Michigan (79 percent); New Hampshire (84 percent); New Mexico (93 percent); North Carolina (95 percent); Pennsylvania (77 percent): South Carolina (93 percent); Utah (83 percent); and Wisconsin (75 percent).

The estimates were created using the FluSurge model developed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"The country's much more prepared than we were a few short years ago for a pandemic, but there are some long-term underlying problems which complicate response efforts, like surge capacity and the need to modernize core public health areas like communications and surveillance capabil
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