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Study finds the effects of population aging have been exaggerated
Date:9/9/2010

pendency ratio.

Co-author Dr Sergei Scherbov, from IIASA and the VID, states that "if we apply new measures of aging that take into account increasing life-spans and declining disability rates, then many populations are aging slower compared to what is predicted using conventional measures based purely on chronological age."

The new work looks at "disability-free life expectancies," which describe how many years of life are spent in good health. It also explores the traditional measure of old age dependency, and another measure that looks specifically at the ratio of disabilities in adults over the age of 20 in a population. Their calculations show that in the United Kingdom, for example, while the old age dependency ratio is increasing, the disability ratio is remaining constant. What that means, according to the authors, is that, "although the British population is getting older, it is also likely to be getting healthier, and these two effects offset one another."

New measures of aging that include not just changes in longevity, but accurate numbers about disability rates, "can help educate the public about the likely consequences of improvements in health and longevity," the authors say. And such measures have policy implications because, "slow and predictable changes in pension [retirement] age justified by an increased number of years of healthy life at older ages, may be more politically acceptable than large, abrupt changes justified on the basis of budget stringency."


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Contact: Leane Regan
regan@iiasa.ac.at
43-664-443-0368
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Source:Eurekalert

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