Navigation Links
Study Forecasts More Young Doctors in Future
Date:10/20/2009

But estimates on workforce date conflict, experts say

TUESDAY, Oct. 20 (HealthDay News) -- The future physician workforce in the United States may be younger but fewer in number than previously projected, a new study claims.

Researchers looked at physician employment trends by analyzing data in the American Medical Association Physician Masterfile and the U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Survey (CPS). They used data from 1979 to 2008 to project physician supply through 2040.

In an average year, the CPS estimated 67,000 (10 percent) fewer active physicians than Masterfile. Estimates from both databases were similar for physicians aged 35 to 54, but showed marked differences for the numbers of active younger and older physicians. On average, the CPS estimated 22,000 (20 percent) fewer active physicians per year aged 55 to 64, and 35,000 (51 percent) fewer active physicians per year aged 65 and older than the Masterfile. The CPS estimated more young physicians (ages 25 to 34) than the Masterfile, with the difference increasing to an average of 17,000 (12 percent) during the final 15 years (2025 to 2040).

"The CPS estimates of more young physicians were consistent with historical growth observed in the number of first-year residents, and the CPS estimates of fewer older physicians were consistent with lower Medicare billings by older physicians," wrote Douglas O. Staiger, of Dartmouth College, and colleagues.

Both the CPS and Masterfile data suggest the number of active physicians will increase about 20 percent between 2005 and 2020, but the CPS-based projection suggests there will be nearly 100,000 (9 percent) fewer active physicians in 2020 than Masterfile projects -- 957,000 vs. 1,050,000. CPS data also indicates that a smaller percentage of active physicians will be 65 or older.

"The CPS-based projection indicates that 71 percent of active physicians will be younger than 55 years and only 9 percent will be older than 65 years, whereas the Masterfile-based projection indicates that 61 percent of active physicians will be younger than 55 years and 18 percent will be older than 65 years," the researchers said.

"Although this analysis was restricted to physician supply, projections of physician requirements also rely on estimates of the current number of physicians as a starting point for projections. Thus, without more accurate estimates of the size and age distribution of the current workforce, projections of physician supply, requirements and potential shortages may mislead policymakers as they try to anticipate and prepare for the health-care needs of the population," they concluded.

The study appears in the Oct. 21 issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association.

More information

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has more about the healthcare workforce.



-- Robert Preidt



SOURCE: Journal of the American Medical Association, news release, Oct. 20, 2009


'/>"/>
Copyright©2009 ScoutNews,LLC.
All rights reserved

Related medicine news :

1. Penn study finds pro-death proteins required to regulate healthy immune function
2. New study shows promise in reducing surgical risks associated with surgical bleeding
3. Study, meta-analysis examine factors associated with death from heatstroke
4. Study suggests loss of 2 types of neurons -- not just 1 -- triggers Parkinsons symptoms
5. Study says COPD testing is not measuring up
6. Preclinical study suggests organ-transplant drug may aid in lupus fight
7. Ability to cope with stress can increase good cholesterol in older white men, study finds
8. High alcohol consumption increases stroke risk, Tulane study says
9. Mailman School of Public Health study examines link between racial discrimination and substance use
10. Pitt study finds inequality in tobacco advertising
11. Stanford study highlights cost-effective method of lowering heart disease risks
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:12/8/2016)... (PRWEB) , ... December 08, 2016 , ... ... accreditation with distinction by the Undersea and Hyperbaric Medical Society (UHMS), the leading ... advanced care and patient safety. Only a few hospitals and facilities have earned ...
(Date:12/8/2016)... ... 08, 2016 , ... Mirixa Corporation , a leading ... pharmacist-delivered patient care services, has announced the promotions of Karen Litsinger to senior ... of sales. , Litsinger joined Mirixa in 2008 after serving as a ...
(Date:12/8/2016)... ... December 08, 2016 , ... SunView ... customers and employees that are both engaging and easy to use. Coming off ... the software company revealed today its plans to roll out new AI-powered self-service ...
(Date:12/8/2016)... , ... December 08, 2016 , ... California Senate Bill ... payments per workers’ compensation claim in 2013 and 2014, according to CompScope™ Medical ... Institute (WCRI) . , According to the study, medical payments per claim in California ...
(Date:12/8/2016)... ... December 08, 2016 , ... The Dianne Michael Insurance ... in Hamilton County, is embarking on a charity drive with the aim of ... homes for orphaned or neglected senior dogs in the Cincinnati region, and LuvFurMutts ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:12/9/2016)... Dec. 9, 2016  Forge Therapeutics, Inc. today ... Stock Exchange: EVT, TecDAX, ISIN: DE0005664809) to advance ... the treatment of bacterial infections including those caused ... as an attractive antibacterial target for more than ... suitable chemical starting points has hampered its progress. ...
(Date:12/8/2016)... , Dec. 8, 2016 Australia Ophthalmic ... new report, "Australia Ophthalmic Lasers Market Outlook to 2022", ... market. The report provides value, in millions of US ... market segements - Excimer Lasers, Femtosecond Lasers and YAG ... distribution shares data for each of these market segements, ...
(Date:12/8/2016)... Dec. 8, 2016 KEY FINDINGS ... Patient warming ... of blood during surgeries, lowering the risks of neurological disorders ... of SSIs. The patient warming systems can be segmented into ... benefits in turn reduce the stay at hospitals thus, lowering ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: