Navigation Links
Study: Methodology of determining financial viability of social security
Date:7/31/2012

The Social Security Trust Fund is off on its prediction by $730 billion for needed benefits in 2030. That is because its forecasting methods have hardly been updated since 1935 when the program first started, according to a study in the August issue of Demography.

Two researchers, Samir Soneji of The Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy & Clinical Practice and Gary King of Harvard's Institute for Quantitative Social Science, in the article titled, "Statistical Security for Social Security," found that the financial viability of Social Security, the single largest U.S. government program, is in jeopardy because of outdated forecasting methods.

The researchers began their research by detailing information necessary for replicating the Social Security Administration's forecasting procedures, previously unavailable in the public domain. Then they offered a way to improve the quality of the procedures via age- and sex-specific forecasts, and included risk factors such as smoking and obesity, consistent with long-standing demographic patterns.

"Including this extra information makes a substantial difference," they said. "For example, by improving only mortality forecasting methods, we predict three fewer years of net surplus, $730 billion less in Social Security Trust Funds"

The researchers determined that the population would live longer, on average, than the SSA forecasts because of successes in the medical community. Smoking is in historic decline and prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease is a success, both adding years to lives. While obesity will likely take its toll, this social and behavioral failure will unlikely outweigh medical and public health triumphs, they said.

As a result of Americans aging and the fact that they will live longer, retirees will continue to receive benefits for longer than predicted, supported by payroll taxes of fewer working adults than predicted.

Social Security, with outlays in 2008 exceeding $616 billion, represents 21 percent of total spending in the federal government. That same year, contributions through payroll taxes exceeded $689 billion and just under 42 million people received $509 billion in Old-Age and Survivors Insurance benefits. An additional 9 million people received $106 billion in Disability Insurance benefits.

Along with the new methodology, Soneji and King also offered open source software tools and all data and detailed information to replicate and extend the objective analysis, and be free from political influence. "We hope to marshal the efforts of the research community to include ever more informative inputs and to continue to reduce uncertainties in Social Security forecasts," they said.


'/>"/>
Contact: Annmarie Christensen
Annmarie.Christensen@dartmouth.edu
603-653-0897
Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center
Source:Eurekalert

Related medicine news :

1. Study: Group yoga improves motor function and balance long after stroke
2. Rutgers study: Anxiety disorders in poor moms likely to result from poverty, not mental illness
3. New study: Elderly Medicare beneficiaries most satisfied with their health insurance
4. Study: Children abused by parents face increased cancer risk
5. Study: Kids with behavior problems, disabilities bullied more, more likely to bully others
6. Study: 21 percent of newly admitted nursing home residents sustain a fall during their stay
7. Study: Willingness to be screened for dementia varies by age but not by sex, race or income
8. STeleR study: Telerehab improves functioning after stroke
9. Study: Heart damage after chemo linked to stress in cardiac cells
10. UW study: Sleep apnea associated with higher mortality from cancer
11. OHSU study: Misdiagnosis of MS is costing health system millions per year
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:10/13/2017)... ... 13, 2017 , ... “America On The Brink”: the Christian history of the ... is the creation of published author, William Nowers. Captain Nowers and his wife, ... he spent thirty years in the Navy. Following his career as a naval ...
(Date:10/12/2017)... ... October 12, 2017 , ... The ... demand of today’s consumer and regulatory authorities worldwide. From Children’s to Adults 50+, ... to meet the highest standard. , These products are also: Gluten Free, ...
(Date:10/12/2017)... ... 12, 2017 , ... Information about the technology: , Otomagnetics ... enable prevention of a major side effect of chemotherapy in children. Cisplatin and ... For cisplatin, hearing loss is FDA listed on-label as a dose limiting toxicity. ...
(Date:10/12/2017)... ... ... On Saturday, October 21, the Health & Wellness Center at Florida Hospital ... for the American Heart Association Heart Walk. Teams of up to 10 people can ... their treadmills moving for 5 hours. Treadmills will start at 7:00 p.m. on Saturday, ...
(Date:10/12/2017)... FL (PRWEB) , ... October 12, 2017 , ... ... presenting the latest in wound care advancements to physician colleagues, skilled nursing facility ... is titled, "Navigating the Treacherous Waters of Wound Care." , "At many of ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:10/5/2017)... Oct. 5, 2017  In response to the ... and Maxillofacial Surgeons (AAOMS) released prescribing recommendations that ... be used as a first-line therapy to manage ... Recognizing the value and ... Paper "Opioid Prescribing: Acute and Postoperative Pain Management" ...
(Date:10/4/2017)... , Oct. 4, 2017 OBP ... self-contained, illuminating medical devices, today announced regulatory approval ... Surveillance Agency (or Agência Nacional de Vigilância Sanitária ... single-use, cordless surgical retractor with integrated LED light ... access, illumination and exposure of a tissue pocket ...
(Date:10/2/2017)... 2017  AllianceRx Walgreens Prime, the combined central specialty ... pharmacy benefit manager Prime Therapeutics LLC (Prime), today officially ... the unveiling of new signage at its headquarters in ... at a few other company-owned facilities across the country. ... some of whom will begin to see the AllianceRx ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: