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Strategic Analytics Reports Stress Test Achievements
Date:5/1/2009

ans being originated were of dramatically worse quality than previous originations, and Strategic Analytics' analysis indicated that the mortgage market was heading for an enormous collapse.

The fall in house prices beginning in 2007 meant that distressed loans could no longer be rescued by refinancing. While other modeling methods showed no visible stress until 2007, when housing price depreciation was evident, Strategic Analytics' approach provided correct predictions of loan losses two years earlier. Similar patterns of deteriorating origination quality have also been observed in all categories of home equity, auto loans, credit cards, and other consumer loans.

Breeden commented: "The global recession that began in 2008 exacerbated stresses on the poor originations of 2005-2007. The problems actually began years earlier in the quality of loan originations, and are now affecting all outstanding loans in every category. Strategic Analytics' analysis showed that dramatic increases in delinquency and default rates were baked into lenders' portfolios and pools of securitized loans, and were amplified - with severe consequences - by the deteriorating economic environment over the last 24 months. Had these lenders been relying on Strategic Analytics for their stress testing and portfolio forecasting instead of the traditional models, these problems would have been uncovered sooner."

For more information on Strategic Analytics, please visit www.strategicanalytics.com. The research paper mentioned above can be found at: http://www.journalofriskmodelvalidation.com (Breeden et al., Volume 2 Number 2, Su
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SOURCE Strategic Analytics Inc.
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