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Simple model predicts those at risk for chronic kidney disease
Date:12/22/2008

participants from the two cohorts went on to develop CKD over the course of follow-up.

"We discovered that a scoring system that included eight key risk factors -- older age, anemia, female sex, hypertension, diabetes, peripheral vascular disease and any history of congestive heart failure or cardiovascular disease -- accurately predicted which of the older patients would proceed to CKD and which would not," says study co-author Dr. Heejung Bang, assistant professor in the Division of Biostatistics and Epidemiology in the Department of Public Health at Weill Cornell Medical College.

In the scoring system, each time a patient answers "yes" to having one of the eight risk factors, they gain anywhere from one to three points. Older age (at or over 70) was of highest predictive significance, so it added three points to the score. Risk factors other than age each added one point.

Scoring a total of just three points in the model captured 70 percent of those patients who would go on to develop CKD over the next 10 years. For people scoring three, the model had 91 percent sensitivity for assessing how well the test identified people who would later go on to develop CKD, and a specificity of 28 percent for assessing how well the test identified those who would not develop the disease. For those scoring a six on the test, sensitivity and specificity were 93 percent and 25 percent, respectively.

"Importantly, we were able to validate the accuracy of the score across different cohorts, suggesting that it remains consistent in a variety of contexts," notes Dr. Abhijit V. Kshirsagar of the University of North Carolina Kidney Center, Chapel Hill, and the study's lead author. "Each of the eight components that make up the score is also easy to identify or quickly assess during any doctor-patient interview. Patients themselves can even self-assess using the tool, and bring their concerns to their doctor, if need be."

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Contact: Lezlie Greenberg
leg2003@med.cornell.edu
212-821-0560
New York- Presbyterian Hospital/Weill Cornell Medical Center/Weill Cornell Medical College
Source:Eurekalert

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