Simple model predicts those at risk for chronic kidn...( NEW YORK (Dec. 22 2008) -- Tradition...),Health

NEW YORK (Dec. 22, 2008) -- Traditionally, doctors have had no clear way to predict which of their patients might be headed down the road to chronic kidney disease (CKD). Now, researchers at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital/Weill Cornell Medical Center and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill have created a simple eight-point risk factor checklist to do just that.

As reported in a special double issue (Dec. 8 and 22) of the Archives of Internal Medicine, the model accurately stratifies middle-aged and older patients at high risk for newly diagnosed CKD, which involves a gradual, even fatal loss of kidney function over time.

According to the National Kidney Foundation, 26 million American adults have CKD and millions of others are at increased risk.

"These patients are often battling concurrent conditions such as diabetes or heart disease, so anything we can do to predict and then lower their risk for kidney disease will be invaluable," says study senior author Dr. Phyllis A. August, the Ralph A. Baer Professor of Medical Research at Weill Cornell Medical College, and an internist and nephrologist at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital/Weill Cornell Medical Center.

In their research, Dr. August and colleagues combined data from two major studies, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities trial and the Cardiovascular Health Study, which together total 14,155 men and women aged 45 years or older. All of the participants had a glomerular filtration rate exceeding 60 mL/min/1.73m2 at the beginning of the study -- indicating their kidneys were functioning at a normal healthy level at that time.

The researchers then tracked the health of the participants during a follow-up of up to nine years, recording those participants whose filtration rate fell below the healthy 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 threshold. They also tracked a wide variety of risk factors thought important to the onset of CKD.

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