This assumes that vaccines target children (aged 5 to 19), who are most responsible for spreading flu, and adults (aged 30 to 39), who get flu from their children. This strategy would help protect the remainder of the population from infection, Medlock and Galvani say.
Moreover, the 63 million vaccine doses in the model are less than the 85 million doses given each year in the United States for seasonal flu, they noted.
For seasonal flu, the CDC recommends that children aged 6 months to 19 get vaccinated as well as pregnant women, people 50 and older, people with certain chronic medical conditions, people living in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities, and people who live with or care for those at high risk for complications from flu.
Right now, the CDC is considering recommendations for whom should be vaccinated against the new H1N1 flu strain. Recommendations from the CDC's expert panel suggest targeting pregnant women, children 6 months and older and health-care workers first.
Dr. Marc Siegel, an associate professor of medicine at New York University Langone Medical Center in New York City, doesn't think that using historical data is a good method for predicting flu, but believes the researchers drew the right conclusions about vaccine use nevertheless.
"Their point is that children are super-spreaders, and adults are secondary spreaders, and I really agree with that," Siegel said. "I think their point about targeting spreaders and super-spreaders is right."
This use of vaccine builds what is called herd immunity, Siegel explained. "The best way to protect people that ar
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