Safety of Swine Flu Vaccine to Face Toug...(without casualties. The pattern of t...),Health

The pattern of today's swine flu is already vastly different than that in 1976, with experts basing decisions on entirely different factors.

"Although the name is the same, the situation we face right now is completely different than that faced in 1976," said Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health in Boston. "The 1976 vaccination program followed an outbreak with little or no transmission beyond there [Fort Dix], and was largely based on the fear of a larger outbreak than the existence of a larger outbreak."

The H1N1 swine flu that first surfaced in the United States in mid-April has already infected an estimated 1 million Americans, killing close to 200 and has exploded through national borders.

Globally, the World Health Organization reports close to 100,000 cases of swine flu in more than 100 countries resulting in 429 deaths. In June, the organization declared a pandemic, triggered by the rapid spread of the virus across North America, South America, Europe, Australia and regions beyond.

"In 1976, we ended up having lots of people vaccinated and then having only a small number of people who got sick," said Lillibridge. "If there's no disease killing people or hurting people then the side effects of the vaccine dominate attention."

Lipsitch added: "If there had been a major flu epidemic with tens of thousands of deaths in 1976, I don't think there would have been much of a concern that the vaccine caused side effects."

All vaccine decisions are made under tremendous uncertainty, Lipsitch said, and the current situation is no exception.

But there are important differences.

"Not only do we know more today but we know that the virus is transmissible, it can transmit in all parts of the world and it can kill people," Lipsitch said. "The likely benefit of a vaccine is in saving many lives and we don't know how man
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