Navigation Links
SARS: a model disease

A new model to predict the spread of emerging diseases has been developed by researchers in the US, Italy, and France. The model, described in the online open access journal BMC Medicine, could give healthcare professionals advance warning of the path an emerging disease might take and so might improve emergency responses and control.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) spread rapidly in 2002-2003, revealing just how vulnerable we might be to emerging diseases and how global transportation is critical to the spread of an epidemic.

Now, Vittoria Colizza and Alessandro Vespignani of Indiana University, Bloomington, USA and the Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, in Turin, Italy, and colleagues in France have developed a predictive model of the spread of emerging diseases based on actual travel and census data for more than three thousand urban areas in 220 countries. The model provides predictions of how likely an outbreak will be in each region and how widespread it might become. The research highlights just how the accuracy in predicting the spreading pattern of an epidemic can be related to clearly identifiable routes by which the disease could spread.

In order to assess the predictive power of their model, the researchers turned to the historical records of the global spread of the SARS virus. They evaluated the initial conditions before the disease had spread widely, based on the data for the arrival of the first patient who left mainland China for Hong Kong, and for the resulting outbreak there. They then simulated the likelihood that SARS would emerge in specific countries thereafter, as brought by infectious travelers. The simulated results fit very accurately with the actual pattern of the spread of SARS in 2002. Analysis of the results also identified possible paths of the virus' spread along the routes of commercial air travel, highlighting some preferred channels which may serve as epidemic pathways for the global spread of the disease.

"The presented computational approach shows that the integration of long-range mobility and demographic data provides epidemic models with a predictive power that can be consistently tested," the researchers explain. "This computational strategy can be therefore considered as a general tool in the analysis and forecast of the global spreading of emerging diseases."


Contact: Charlotte Webber
BioMed Central

Related medicine news :

1. Chromatin remodeling complex connected to DNA damage control
2. Health care incentive model offers collaborative approach
3. Novel 3-D cell culture model shows selective tumour uptake of nanoparticles
4. 4-Star Gen. Barry McCaffrey, Former U.S. Drug Czar, to Address National Drug Crisis, Keynote Grand Opening of New Allenwood, PA National Model Detox Center
5. A classic method for modeling skin cancer is featured in Cold Spring Harbor Protocols
6. New knock-out gene model provides molecular clues to breast cancer
7. Rain Man mice provide model for autism
8. University of Nevada School of Medicine Professor Confirms Accuracy Through Validation Study Using the CSI Health Station Model 6K
9. USC researcher identifies stem cells in tendons that regenerate tissue in animal model
10. Americas Next Top Model Steps up for Psoriasis Awareness
11. Computer models help raise the bar for sporting achievement
Post Your Comments:
(Date:11/25/2015)... ... November 25, 2015 , ... Privately owned Contract Development and ... of its current state of the art research, development and manufacturing facility outside ... its manufacturing capacity as well as to support its clients’ growing research and ...
(Date:11/25/2015)... ... November 25, 2015 , ... Many people know of the common symptoms ... hands, and dry skin. But many people who find their cholesterol levels and weight ... of their thyroid, especially if they don’t have any of the other symptoms. , ...
(Date:11/25/2015)... ... November 25, 2015 , ... ... on providing comprehensive solutions involving adult stem cell therapies to patients with chronic ... the “Regenestem” name as a Registered Trademark (RTM). , Organizations are required to ...
(Date:11/25/2015)... (PRWEB) , ... November 25, 2015 , ... ... treatment, is offering lower prices in an early celebration of the early holiday ... promotional price of $29.95 each (normally $33.95 ea). Black Friday promotional pricing is ...
(Date:11/24/2015)... ... 2015 , ... Eric C. Seidel, DMD and Stephanie DeFilippo, ... revolutionary BIOLASE WaterLase iPlus 2.0™ system. This advanced laser technology uses light energy ... dentist in Gettysburg, PA . From routine visits to cosmetic treatments, laser dentistry ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:11/25/2015)... , Frankreich, November 25, 2015 ... bekanntgegeben, dass sie eine Lizenz für das Patent über ... CNRS, UCBL und ENS-Lyon innehaben, an Enyo Pharma vergeben ... FUI AAP8 ins Leben gerufenen und von Edelris gemeinsam ... FXR als ein Behandlungsziel für HBV identifiziert, und es ...
(Date:11/24/2015)... DELHI , November 25, 2015 ... invoked due to repeated failure of IVF cycles. After ... Bhatia was totally dejected and had lost all hopes that she would be ... first Indian miracle child conceived after failure of over ... to abroad (UK) before they decided to take one last attempt ...
(Date:11/24/2015)... 24, 2015  Thanks to a donor with a ... Medical Center,s Sister Diane Grassilli Center for Women,s Health ... San Francisco . ... forward with a gift of $617,320 that allowed the ... with Tomosynthesis and Whole Breast Ultrasound. Tomosynthesis, three-dimensional (3-D) ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: