Navigation Links
SARS: a model disease
Date:11/20/2007

A new model to predict the spread of emerging diseases has been developed by researchers in the US, Italy, and France. The model, described in the online open access journal BMC Medicine, could give healthcare professionals advance warning of the path an emerging disease might take and so might improve emergency responses and control.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) spread rapidly in 2002-2003, revealing just how vulnerable we might be to emerging diseases and how global transportation is critical to the spread of an epidemic.

Now, Vittoria Colizza and Alessandro Vespignani of Indiana University, Bloomington, USA and the Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, in Turin, Italy, and colleagues in France have developed a predictive model of the spread of emerging diseases based on actual travel and census data for more than three thousand urban areas in 220 countries. The model provides predictions of how likely an outbreak will be in each region and how widespread it might become. The research highlights just how the accuracy in predicting the spreading pattern of an epidemic can be related to clearly identifiable routes by which the disease could spread.

In order to assess the predictive power of their model, the researchers turned to the historical records of the global spread of the SARS virus. They evaluated the initial conditions before the disease had spread widely, based on the data for the arrival of the first patient who left mainland China for Hong Kong, and for the resulting outbreak there. They then simulated the likelihood that SARS would emerge in specific countries thereafter, as brought by infectious travelers. The simulated results fit very accurately with the actual pattern of the spread of SARS in 2002. Analysis of the results also identified possible paths of the virus' spread along the routes of commercial air travel, highlighting some preferred channels which may serve as epidemic pathways for the global spread of the disease.

"The presented computational approach shows that the integration of long-range mobility and demographic data provides epidemic models with a predictive power that can be consistently tested," the researchers explain. "This computational strategy can be therefore considered as a general tool in the analysis and forecast of the global spreading of emerging diseases."


'/>"/>

Contact: Charlotte Webber
press@biomedcentral.com
44-020-763-19980
BioMed Central
Source:Eurekalert

Related medicine news :

1. Chromatin remodeling complex connected to DNA damage control
2. Health care incentive model offers collaborative approach
3. Novel 3-D cell culture model shows selective tumour uptake of nanoparticles
4. 4-Star Gen. Barry McCaffrey, Former U.S. Drug Czar, to Address National Drug Crisis, Keynote Grand Opening of New Allenwood, PA National Model Detox Center
5. A classic method for modeling skin cancer is featured in Cold Spring Harbor Protocols
6. New knock-out gene model provides molecular clues to breast cancer
7. Rain Man mice provide model for autism
8. University of Nevada School of Medicine Professor Confirms Accuracy Through Validation Study Using the CSI Health Station Model 6K
9. USC researcher identifies stem cells in tendons that regenerate tissue in animal model
10. Americas Next Top Model Steps up for Psoriasis Awareness
11. Computer models help raise the bar for sporting achievement
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:6/26/2016)... ... 26, 2016 , ... On June 10-11, 2016, A Forever Recovery, a holistic ... World’s Longest Breakfast Table in Battle Creek, MI, where the rehabilitation facility is located. ... some of the world’s leading providers of cereal and other breakfast foods. Its residents ...
(Date:6/26/2016)... ... 26, 2016 , ... Brent Kasmer, a legally blind and certified personal trainer is helping to ... app. The fitness app plans to fix the two major problems leading the fitness industry ... fits all type program , They don’t eliminate all the reasons people quit ...
(Date:6/25/2016)... TX (PRWEB) , ... June 25, 2016 , ... Austin ... of the American College of Mohs Surgery and to Dr. Russell Peckham for medical ... and highly effective treatment for skin cancer. The selective fellowship in Mohs Micrographic Surgery ...
(Date:6/25/2016)... ... 25, 2016 , ... First Choice Emergency Room , the largest network ... the Medical Director of its new Mesquite-Samuell Farm facility. , “We are pleased ... location,” said Dr. James M. Muzzarelli, Executive Medical Director of First Choice Emergency Room. ...
(Date:6/25/2016)... (PRWEB) , ... June 25, 2016 , ... On Friday, ... presented a Bronze Wellness at Work award to iHire in recognition of their exemplary ... part of the 7th annual Maryland Workplace Health & Wellness Symposium at the BWI ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:6/24/2016)... , June 24, 2016 ... the "Structural Electronics 2015-2025: Applications, Technologies, Forecasts" ... In-Mold Electronics, Smart Skin, Structural ... Structural electronics involves electronic and/or ... protective structures, replacing dumb structures such as vehicle ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... 24, 2016 According to a ... (Standard Pen Needles, Safety Pen Needles), Needle Length (4mm, ... Hormone), Mode of Purchase (Retail, Non-Retail) - Trends & ... studies the market for the forecast period of 2016 ... 2.81 Billion by 2021 from USD 1.65 Billion in ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... , June 23, 2016 Research and ... Global Market - Forecast to 2022" report to their ... treatment method for the patients with kidney failure, it replaces ... fluid from the patient,s blood and thus the treatment helps ... and chloride in balance. Increasing number of ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: