Navigation Links
SARS: a model disease
Date:11/20/2007

A new model to predict the spread of emerging diseases has been developed by researchers in the US, Italy, and France. The model, described in the online open access journal BMC Medicine, could give healthcare professionals advance warning of the path an emerging disease might take and so might improve emergency responses and control.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) spread rapidly in 2002-2003, revealing just how vulnerable we might be to emerging diseases and how global transportation is critical to the spread of an epidemic.

Now, Vittoria Colizza and Alessandro Vespignani of Indiana University, Bloomington, USA and the Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, in Turin, Italy, and colleagues in France have developed a predictive model of the spread of emerging diseases based on actual travel and census data for more than three thousand urban areas in 220 countries. The model provides predictions of how likely an outbreak will be in each region and how widespread it might become. The research highlights just how the accuracy in predicting the spreading pattern of an epidemic can be related to clearly identifiable routes by which the disease could spread.

In order to assess the predictive power of their model, the researchers turned to the historical records of the global spread of the SARS virus. They evaluated the initial conditions before the disease had spread widely, based on the data for the arrival of the first patient who left mainland China for Hong Kong, and for the resulting outbreak there. They then simulated the likelihood that SARS would emerge in specific countries thereafter, as brought by infectious travelers. The simulated results fit very accurately with the actual pattern of the spread of SARS in 2002. Analysis of the results also identified possible paths of the virus' spread along the routes of commercial air travel, highlighting some preferred channels which may serve as epidemic pathways for the global spread of the disease.

"The presented computational approach shows that the integration of long-range mobility and demographic data provides epidemic models with a predictive power that can be consistently tested," the researchers explain. "This computational strategy can be therefore considered as a general tool in the analysis and forecast of the global spreading of emerging diseases."


'/>"/>

Contact: Charlotte Webber
press@biomedcentral.com
44-020-763-19980
BioMed Central
Source:Eurekalert

Related medicine news :

1. Chromatin remodeling complex connected to DNA damage control
2. Health care incentive model offers collaborative approach
3. Novel 3-D cell culture model shows selective tumour uptake of nanoparticles
4. 4-Star Gen. Barry McCaffrey, Former U.S. Drug Czar, to Address National Drug Crisis, Keynote Grand Opening of New Allenwood, PA National Model Detox Center
5. A classic method for modeling skin cancer is featured in Cold Spring Harbor Protocols
6. New knock-out gene model provides molecular clues to breast cancer
7. Rain Man mice provide model for autism
8. University of Nevada School of Medicine Professor Confirms Accuracy Through Validation Study Using the CSI Health Station Model 6K
9. USC researcher identifies stem cells in tendons that regenerate tissue in animal model
10. Americas Next Top Model Steps up for Psoriasis Awareness
11. Computer models help raise the bar for sporting achievement
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:2/27/2017)... ... February 27, 2017 , ... Robert E. Burke, MD, PhD, ... But his impoverished upbringing and life experiences could have led him down a much ... and Inspirational Tales of Parenting, Perseverance and Pediatrics,” Dr. Burke shares a personal account ...
(Date:2/27/2017)... ... ... Orange County dentist, Dr. A. Rassouli, comments on the new ... bacteria in plaque infect the gums and other tissues supporting the teeth. Treatment typically ... SRP, and can include surgical therapies if the condition has led to significant damage. ...
(Date:2/27/2017)... (PRWEB) , ... February 27, 2017 , ... ... rehabilitation and alcohol treatment programs in British Columbia, Canada, at https://www.sunshinecoasthealthcentre.ca/ , ... its team. The new hire, Mackenzie Alsager, showcases the Centre's commitment to innovation ...
(Date:2/26/2017)... ... February 26, 2017 , ... Today, A' Design Awards & ... International Social Design Awards. , The 7th A' Social Design Award is ... Institutions worldwide with realized projects and conceptual works. , The first phase of ...
(Date:2/26/2017)... ... February 26, 2017 , ... ... standard in staffing, scheduling, and reporting for healthcare organizations. This comprehensive and ... the entire staffing process. StaffBridge technology improves staffing efficiency, maximizes resource allocation, ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:2/27/2017)... 2017   Royal Philips (NYSE: ... in health technology, today announced 510(k) clearance from ... market its ElastQ Imaging capability, further expanding the ... ElastQ Imaging enables simultaneous imaging of tissue and ... the diagnosis of various liver conditions. With ElastQ ...
(Date:2/27/2017)... 2017  RegeneRx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. (OTCQB: RGRX) ("the ... focused on tissue protection, repair and regeneration, today ... Ltd., received a positive response from the U.S. ... for RGN-137 to treat epidermolysis bullosa ("EB"). RGN-137 ... Thymosin beta 4 ("Tß4") as the active pharmaceutical ...
(Date:2/27/2017)... , Feb. 27, 2017  CTI BioPharma Corp. (CTI BioPharma) ... Adam Craig , M.D., Ph.D., as President and Chief Executive ... March 20, 2017. Dr. Craig succeeds Richard Love , ... the company,s Board of Directors.  Dr. Craig has over 20 ... both the US and Europe . ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: