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Results From Pre-Election Surveys Published in NEJM Show Deep Concerns About State of Health Care With McCain and Obama Supporters Differing Sharply on Directions for New Administration
Date:10/30/2008

Analysis Draws from Kaiser/Harvard Survey of Registered Voters in September, As Well As Other Recent Public Polls and Historical Presidential Election Exit Polls

MENLO PARK, Calif., Oct. 30 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- With only a few days remaining before Election Day, researchers from Harvard School of Public Health and the Kaiser Family Foundation, writing for the November 6, 2008, New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), find that seven in ten registered voters say major changes are needed in the U.S. health care system.

The article, written by Robert J. Blendon, Sc.D., Professor of Health Policy and Political Analysis at the Harvard School of Public Health, Drew E. Altman, Ph.D., President of the Kaiser Family Foundation and five co-authors, is the second in a series of reports published in NEJM examining how the election can provide insights about future health policy. The article examines the public's perceptions of the state of the American health care system, the role of health care as a 2008 election issue, and the contrasting health policy views of registered voters who intend to vote for Senator McCain and Senator Obama. The findings are based on a Kaiser/Harvard survey of registered voters in September, as well as other surveys this year and historical Election Day exit polls. The first article in the series, released in January 2008, examined health care's role in each party's presidential primaries.

"Voters want a major change in health care," said Robert J. Blendon, Professor of Health Policy and Political Analysis at the Harvard School of Public Health, "but a new administration is going to have to face the very real divide that exists between McCain and Obama supporters on the shape of future reform."

"Health care is a part of the economic anxieties of the public. People are having major problems getting and paying for health care and, if this trend continues, addressing health care as part of the nation's economic turmoil may be a priority for the nation's next president," said Kaiser President and CEO Drew Altman.

While voters are dissatisfied with the current health care system, they may have very different views about how the next president should address the issue, particularly those intending to vote for Senator McCain versus those intending to vote for Senator Obama. When asked to choose the most important issue relating to their vote choice, health care ranked second among Obama voters and tied for fourth among McCain voters. Further, while a large majority of voters favor changes in health care, supporters of the two candidates differ greatly when it comes to their views on the direction and magnitude of such change.

The article explores in detail a number of health care concerns and priorities through the lens of this election season's presidential choice. While McCain and Obama voters differ in their responses on many health care issues and approaches to health reform, registered voters - whether McCain or Obama supporters - all rank affordability as the top health care priority for the new administration. The findings confirm what surveys have shown in the past, that there is broad support for a range of approaches to health care reform, though there may not be agreement on the best way to move forward.

The authors conclude the article by writing, "because health care is likely to be a second-level priority for presidential action when compared to the country's current economic situation, it will take leadership from the White House and the Congress for health care reform to be achieved."

The article, Voters and Health Reform in the 2008 Presidential Election, was written by Harvard School of Public Health Professor of Health Policy Robert J. Blendon, Sc.D.; Kaiser Family Foundation President and CEO Drew E. Altman, Ph.D.; Harvard Opinion Research Program Managing Director John M. Benson, M.A.; Kaiser Vice President and Director of Public Opinion and Survey Research Mollyann Brodie, Ph.D.; Harvard Opinion Research Program Assistant Director Tami Buhr, A.M.; Kaiser Associate Director of Public Opinion and Survey Research Claudia Deane, M.A.; and Kaiser Public Opinion and Survey Research staff Sasha Buscho. A link to the article and the previous article in the series is available at http://www.kff.org/kaiserpolls/posr103008pkg.cfm, along with full results from the Kaiser/Harvard survey.

Methodology

Data for the NEJM article were drawn from a public opinion survey of registered voters designed and analyzed by researchers at the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard School of Public Health. The survey of a nationwide sample of 1,622 self-described registered voters was conducted by telephone from September 10-21, 2008. The margin of sampling error for all registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points and plus or minus four percentage points for McCain and Obama voters. For results based on smaller subsets of respondents the margin of sampling error is somewhat higher. Note that sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error in this or any other public opinion poll. The findings also draw on the results of five surveys conducted with representative samples of the general public between February and September 2008 and five national election exit poll surveys of randomly selected voters conducted on presidential election days in 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 by media organizations.

The Kaiser Family Foundation is a non-profit private operating foundation, based in Menlo Park, California, dedicated to producing and communicating the best possible information, research and analysis on health issues.

Harvard School of Public Health is dedicated to advancing the public's health through learning, discovery, and communication. More than 400 faculty members are engaged in teaching and training the 1,000-plus student body in a broad spectrum of disciplines crucial to the health and well being of individuals and populations around the world. Programs and projects range from the molecular biology of AIDS vaccines to the epidemiology of cancer; from risk analysis to violence prevention; from maternal and children's health to quality of care measurement; from health care management to international health and human rights. For more information on the school visit http://www.hsph.harvard.edu.


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SOURCE Henry J. Kaiser Foundation; Harvard School of PublicHealth
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