There will be nearly 1.3 million deaths from cancer in Europe in 2011 according to predictions from a study published in the cancer journal, Annals of Oncology today (Wednesday 9 February) .
The estimates, which have been reached after researchers used for the first time in Europe a new mathematical model for predicting cancer mortality, show a fall in overall cancer death rates for both men and women when compared to 2007. But they also highlight some areas of concern, particularly rising rates of lung cancer in women.
Researchers, led by Professor Carlo La Vecchia (MD) of the Department of Epidemiology at the Mario Negri Institute and the Faculty of Medicine, University of Milan (Italy), and Professor Fabio Levi (MD), Head of the Cancer Epidemiology Unit at the Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois and University of Lausanne, (Switzerland), used data on cancer deaths in the European Union for the period 1970-2007 to calculate rates of death each year and to identify trends which they used to predict death rates for 2011.
They looked at overall rates in the EU (the EU was defined as the 27 member states as of January 2007), and also individual rates in six major EU countries: France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK.
They predicted there would be 1,281,466 cancer deaths in the EU in 2011 (721,252 men and 560,184 women), compared to 1,256,001 (703,872 men and 552,129 women) in 2007. When these figures are converted into world standardised rates per 100,000 of the population, this means there will be a fall from 153.8 per 100,000 to 142.8 per 100,000 in men, and from 90.7 to 85.3 in women a drop of 7% in men and 6% in women since 2007.
However, the number of women dying from lung cancer is increasing steadily everywhere apart from in the UK, which has had the highest rates in women for a decade and is now seeing a levelling off. In the EU as a whole
|Contact: Emma Mason|
European Society for Medical Oncology