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Peter G. Peterson Foundation Releases The Lewin Group Study Showing Current House Health Care Reform Proposal Would Lead to Expanded Coverage and Higher Costs
Date:9/9/2009

responsible, it must not just pay for itself over 10-years and beyond, it should also result in a significant reduction in the tens of trillions of dollars in the federal government's unfunded health care promises," said David M. Walker, President and CEO of the Foundation.

The Lewin Group study, Long-Term Cost of the American Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009: As Amended by the Energy and Commerce Committee in August 2009, finds that the legislation would expand health insurance coverage and reduce the number of people who are uninsured. However, the analysis also shows that overall health care costs will increase, not decrease, as a result of expanded coverage and other provisions in the legislation. From the perspective of the federal budget, the study shows the Act would nearly achieve President Obama's goal of paying for itself over the next 10 years. In the second 10 years, however, the proposal would add an estimated $1 trillion to the federal deficit.

Key findings include:

  1. The net federal cost of the Act over the 2010 through 2019 period would be $39 billion (excluding debt service costs) and, thus the Act would be nearly fully funded as reforms phase in during the first ten years. The net federal cost of the Act over the following ten years (2020 through 2029) would be $1.01 trillion (excluding debt service costs) due to rapid growth in health care costs that will outpace the growth in incomes and revenues over the longer-term.
  2. The study estimates that under the Act (assuming full implementation and mature enrollment) almost 30 million people would gain insurance coverage in 2011, a reduction of 60 percent in the ranks of the uninsured.
    • 41 million people would obtain health insurance through newly-created health insurance exchanges, including 21 million in the public plan. Enrollment in the Medicaid program would grow
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SOURCE Peter G. Peterson Foundation
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