esn't appear to be enough; the risk reduction we did achieve early on in the 1980s has gone flat, and we need to change that."
The researchers compared national heart disease risk factor data from three time periods to track change over time in risk reduction. The early period documented changes in risk between 1976 and 1980 and a midpoint of 1988 to 1994. The last period documented changes in risk from the midpoint to 1999 - 2004. Comparing changes from the early stage to the midpoint documented a decline in the overall risk to develop heart disease; but comparing change from the midpoint to the late period showed the trend flattening.
"No one has ever compared national data this way, which is why we are the first to detect this worrisome flattening of the trend in risk factor reduction," Dr. Lopez-Jimenez says.
Key Findings
The data show that, in the U.S., the average age-adjusted 10-year risk of heart disease:
- Decreased from 10 percent to 7.9 percent between the early period and the midpoint - a strong showing of progress in controlling risk factors during the 1980s.
- Decreased only minimally in the interval from the midpoint to the last period, from 7.9 percent to 7.4 percent. This documents the flattening of the healthy trend.
For women, in particular, the age-adjusted risk declined from the early period to the midpoint, but stayed flat from the midpoint to the late period, Dr. Lopez-Jimenez says. Similarly, when age groups were compared, the average predicted risk for those ages 30 to 49 stayed flat from the midpoint to the late period compared to people age 50 and above, he says.
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