Navigation Links
Overcoming structural uncertainty in computer models
Date:4/1/2014

Philadelphia, PA--A computer model is a representation of the functional relationship between one set of parameters, which forms the model input, and a corresponding set of target parameters, which forms the model output. A true model for a particular problem can rarely be defined with certainty. The most we can do to mitigate error is to quantify the uncertainty in the model.

In a recent paper published in the SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, authors Mark Strong and Jeremy Oakley offer a method to incorporate judgments into a model about structural uncertainty that results from building an "incorrect" model.

"Given that 'all models are wrong,' it is important that we develop methods for quantifying our uncertainty in model structure such that we can know when our model is 'good enough'," author Mark Strong says. "Better models mean better decisions."

When making predictions using computer models, we encounter two sources of uncertainty: uncertainty in model inputs and uncertainty in model structure. Input uncertainty arises when we are not certain about input parameters in model simulations. If we are uncertain about true structural relationships within a modelthat is, the relationship between the set of quantities that form the model input and the set that represents the outputthe model is said to display structural uncertainty. Such uncertainty exists even if the model is run using input values as estimated in a perfect study with infinite sample size.

"Perhaps the hardest problem in assessing uncertainty in a computer model prediction is to quantify uncertainty about the model structure, particularly when models are used to predict in the absence of data," says author Jeremy Oakley. "The methodology in this paper can help model users prioritize where improvements are needed in a model to provide more robust support to decision making."

While methods for managing input uncertainty are well
'/>"/>

Contact: Karthika Muthukumaraswamy
karthika@siam.org
267-350-6383
Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
Source:Eurekalert  

Page: 1 2 3

Related medicine news :

1. “Tips on How to Overcome Fear of Failure,” A New Article on Vkool.com, Share Useful Tips with Readers on Overcoming the Fear of Failure - V-kool
2. Overcoming Emotional Eating
3. How “Reveal The Thin Within” Helps People Get Rid Of Fat – V kool
4. Lynn Gauthier Offers Personal Stories of Overcoming Vanity
5. Diabetes drug points the way to overcoming drug resistance in melanoma
6. Joe Jones, Personal Trainer to Seva Call Founder Shares Tips on Overcoming Gym Intimidation
7. Overcoming resistance to anti-cancer drugs by targeting cell powerhouses
8. New finding gives clues for overcoming tamoxifen-resistant breast cancer
9. Unprecedented structural insights: NMDA receptors can be blocked to limit neurotoxicity
10. Washington University and Barnes-Jewish Heart Specialists Hold CME Event: Top Advancements in the Treatment of Structural Heart Disease
11. Nobles Medical Technologies II's NobleStitch EL Receives Strong Reviews from Physicians at Congenital & Structural Interventions Congress (CSI) in Frankfurt
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
Related Image:
Overcoming structural uncertainty in computer models
(Date:9/2/2014)... At the 50th Annual Mr. Olympia Fitness ... exhibitor at the Las Vegas Convention Center South Hall, ... Booth #374 Sept 19th and 20th 10am-5PM. , ... exercise, diet and supplementation. They pride themselves on creating ... for all Prosupps customers to reach their personal health ...
(Date:9/2/2014)... Health structures explain nearly 20% of the non-adherence ... of a joint ESC-OECD study presented today at ... explained more than 80% of non-adherence. , Professor ... combines clinical data and health structure characteristics of ... the reasons some patients with heart failure do ...
(Date:9/2/2014)... Attorney Robert M. Higgins has been ... Year" for Medical Malpractice Law - Plaintiffs. Higgins ... has been selected for inclusion in The Best Lawyers in ... practice area and designated metropolitan area is honored as the ... received during the peer-review assessments. , The Best ...
(Date:9/2/2014)... AURO the enterprise Canadian Public ... expansion of its leadership team with the appointment of ... Liang joins AURO in conjunction with his current role ... with the operations, product management and engineering teams to ... well as ensuring effective internal and external controls are ...
(Date:9/1/2014)... Securityhunter has experienced rapid growth ... search for a new, larger headquarters. The newly ... the space of our office to 10,000 square feet. ... from glass topped cubicles with doors, to beautiful large conference ... warehouse," says Michael S. Rogers, CEO of Securityhunter. “Our ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):Health News:Prosupps, One of the Fastest Growing Supplement Companies, Celebrates a Success Milestone with Exhibiting at the 50th Annual 2014 Mr. Olympia’s Fitness & Performance Expo 2Health News:Health structures explain nearly 20 percent of non-adherence to heart failure guidelines 2Health News:Robert Higgins Named 2015 Best Lawyers® "Lawyer of the Year" in Boston 2Health News:AURO Appoints Kevin Liang as New Chief Financial Officer for Canadian Enterprise Public Cloud 2Health News:AURO Appoints Kevin Liang as New Chief Financial Officer for Canadian Enterprise Public Cloud 3Health News:Securityhunter, Inc. Announces the Relocation of Its Corporate Headquarters in Baltimore 2
... in ovarian cancer has provided the most comprehensive and integrated ... Ovarian serous adenocarcinoma tumors from 500 patients were examined by ... reported in the June 30, 2011, issue of Nature ... of ovarian cancer, accounting for about 85 percent of all ...
... (HealthDay News) -- Obesity is a major risk factor ... women, a new study finds. It included more than ... smoked and were followed for 28 years. During that time, ... disease and 487 (27 percent) from cancer. Researchers found ...
... recent study accepted for publication in The Endocrine Society,s ... early, prolonged treatment with the diabetes drug metformin may prevent ... adolescence. PCOS affects 7 to 10 percent of ... of infertility, affecting an estimated 5 to 6 million women ...
... Reporter , TUESDAY, June 28 (HealthDay News) -- A vaccine ... some promise, while another designed to alter insulin production fails, ... results of both studies were slated to be presented Tuesday ... Type 1 diabetes often appears early in life and ...
... are teaming up to offer one of the nation,s ... trucks. Led by the University of Maryland and ... program will target the so-called short-haul "drayage" fleet that ... The effort seeks to double the impact ...
... TUESDAY, June 28 (HealthDay News) -- Mammography screening reduces breast ... according to a new, large-scale Swedish trial. In a ... longest ever -- the researchers found that the benefits of ... In fact, most of the benefits occur more than 10 ...
Cached Medicine News:Health News:The Cancer Genome Atlas completes detailed ovarian cancer analysis 2Health News:The Cancer Genome Atlas completes detailed ovarian cancer analysis 3Health News:Obesity a Major Cause of Early Death in Women: Study 2Health News:Diabetes drug may prevent or delay development of polycystic ovary syndrome 2Health News:Trials of Type 1 Diabetes Vaccines Bring Mixed Results 2Health News:Trials of Type 1 Diabetes Vaccines Bring Mixed Results 3Health News:Mid-Atlantic states' unique plan to replace region's dirtiest trucks 2Health News:Mid-Atlantic states' unique plan to replace region's dirtiest trucks 3Health News:Longest Trial Ever Confirms Mammograms' Benefits 2Health News:Longest Trial Ever Confirms Mammograms' Benefits 3
(Date:8/30/2014)... 30, 2014  Boston Scientific has released the ... foR Heart Failure (NECTAR-HF) clinical trial, the first ... nerve stimulation (VNS) for the treatment of heart ... Therapeutics and Cardiology and Director of the Clinical ... Sante et de la Recherche Medicale presented the ...
(Date:8/29/2014)... DALLAS , Aug. 29, 2014 /PRNewswire-iReach/ -- ... Crystallography Scanner Industry, 2009-2019 is a professional and ... X-Ray Crystallography Scanner industry . The report firstly ... including its classification, application and manufacturing technology. The ... of X-Ray Crystallography Scanner listing their product specification, ...
(Date:8/29/2014)... N.C. , Aug. 29, 2014 The ... (KOLs) can be the difference between a product,s success ... effectively map and stratify KOL targets – and then ... the type of strong relationships upon which successful KOL ... savvy pharma companies have identified internal inconsistencies in their ...
Breaking Medicine Technology:Boston Scientific Announces Primary Endpoint Results of NECTAR-HF Clinical Trial 2Boston Scientific Announces Primary Endpoint Results of NECTAR-HF Clinical Trial 3Boston Scientific Announces Primary Endpoint Results of NECTAR-HF Clinical Trial 4X-Ray Crystallography Scanner Industry For Global and Chinese Market Forecast to 2019 2X-Ray Crystallography Scanner Industry For Global and Chinese Market Forecast to 2019 3X-Ray Crystallography Scanner Industry For Global and Chinese Market Forecast to 2019 4X-Ray Crystallography Scanner Industry For Global and Chinese Market Forecast to 2019 5Implementing a Strategic Thought Leader Management & Engagement System 2
... LOUIS, April 7, 2011 A study ... Ascension Health, the nation,s third-largest health system, has achieved ... rates, reducing bed sores and keeping patients safe.  In ... preventable injuries and deaths. Ascension Health has seen consistent ...
... ROANOKE, Va., April 7, 2011 PixelOptics ... company, announced today the successful closing of a ... (NYSE: SFE).  The financing is comprised of ... venture capital organizations include: Safeguard Scientifics, Delphi Ventures, ...
Cached Medicine Technology:Study Highlights Successes of Ascension Health Quality Initiative 2PixelOptics Closes $45 Million Financing 2PixelOptics Closes $45 Million Financing 3PixelOptics Closes $45 Million Financing 4
... a national reference laboratory and a worldwide ... ARUP offers an extensive test menu of ... clinical and anatomic pathology. Owned by the ... more than half of the nation's university ...
... is a national reference laboratory and a ... development. ARUP offers an extensive test menu ... in clinical and anatomic pathology. Owned by ... include more than half of the nation's ...
... national reference laboratory and a worldwide leader ... offers an extensive test menu of highly ... and anatomic pathology. Owned by the University ... than half of the nation's university teaching ...
... ARUP Laboratories is a national reference laboratory ... research and development. ARUP offers an extensive ... medical tests in clinical and anatomic pathology. ... Laboratories' clients include more than half of ...
Medicine Products: