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Novel mathematical model predicts new wave of drug-resistant HIV infections in San Francisco
Date:2/17/2008

who were not yet eligible for treatment; chronically infected people who remained untreated, though eligible for it; and patients under treatment.

Researchers found complex waves of rising and falling single-, dual- and triple-class drug-resistant HIV strains over 20 years, with more complex patterns continuing to evolve.

The model predicts that resistance to NRTIs will decline substantially and PI resistance will fall slightly through 2012, and that resistance to NNRTIs will rise over the next five years and then begin falling.

Although strains with dual- and triple-class resistance will be transmitted, they will be far less potent than wild-type HIV strains -- those strains that have not developed drug-resistant mutations and remain sensitive to all classes of drugs.

Most surprising of all, the evolution of drug-resistant HIV strains has substantially reduced the severity of the San Francisco AIDS epidemic because the strains that have emerged have become less infectious than the wild-type strains.


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Contact: Enrique Rivero
erivero@mednet.ucla.edu
310-794-2273
University of California - Los Angeles
Source:Eurekalert

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