Navigation Links
Novel mathematical model predicts new wave of drug-resistant HIV infections in San Francisco
Date:2/17/2008

A mathematical model shows that a new wave of drug-resistant HIV is rising among among men in San Francisco who have sex with men and that this trend will continue over the next few years, according to a new study from the UCLA AIDS Institute.

At the same time, the evolution of drug-resistant HIV may have actually reduced the severity of the city's epidemic, saving many men from becoming infected.

The model and its results were unveiled today by UCLA biomathematics professor Sally Blower, director of the Biomedical Modeling Center at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, during a session on drug-resistant diseases at the annual American Association for the Advancement of Science conference in Boston.

"Our amplification cascade model has been validated by our reconstructions and can now be used to design novel and effective health policies for controlling single-, dual- and triple-class resistant strains of HIV in both resource-rich and resource-constrained countries," said Blower, who is also a member of the UCLA AIDS Institute.

The model enabled the researchers to reconstruct the epidemic's past and predict its future by calculating the evolution of several classes of drug-resistant HIV strains in San Francisco.

The research relied on a novel multi-strain mathematical model called the Amplification Cascade Model to examine the rise between 1987 and 2007 of HIV strains resistant to the three major classes of drugs -- nucleosides (NRTIs), nonnucleosides (NNRTIs) and protease inhibitors (PIs). The model took into account three interacting processes -- transmitted, acquired and amplified resistance -- the last of which refers to amplification of drug-resistant strains in HIV-positive people due to the repeated use of multiple-treatment drug regimens.

The study tracked uninfected individuals; newly infected people in the primary stage of infection; chronically infected individuals who were not yet eligible for treatment; chronically infected people who remained untreated, though eligible for it; and patients under treatment.

Researchers found complex waves of rising and falling single-, dual- and triple-class drug-resistant HIV strains over 20 years, with more complex patterns continuing to evolve.

The model predicts that resistance to NRTIs will decline substantially and PI resistance will fall slightly through 2012, and that resistance to NNRTIs will rise over the next five years and then begin falling.

Although strains with dual- and triple-class resistance will be transmitted, they will be far less potent than wild-type HIV strains -- those strains that have not developed drug-resistant mutations and remain sensitive to all classes of drugs.

Most surprising of all, the evolution of drug-resistant HIV strains has substantially reduced the severity of the San Francisco AIDS epidemic because the strains that have emerged have become less infectious than the wild-type strains.


'/>"/>

Contact: Enrique Rivero
erivero@mednet.ucla.edu
310-794-2273
University of California - Los Angeles
Source:Eurekalert

Related medicine news :

1. Novel approach strips staph of virulence
2. UCSD research team identifies novel anticancer drug from the sea
3. Novel compound may lessen heart attack damage
4. Novel molecules developed at UB can boost vaccine potency
5. Novel small molecule therapy shows benefit for anemic patients via hydration of red blood cells
6. Novel vaccine concept developed by scientists at the Wistar Institute
7. Tibotec Pharmaceuticals a Respectful Partner to HIV Community in Pricing of Novel New HIV NNRTI, INTELENCE
8. Millennium and Harvard Medical School Sign Cooperative Agreement for Research in Novel Field of Cancer Biology
9. Statement by AARP CEO Bill Novelli on President Bushs State of the Union
10. New method enables design, production of extremely novel drugs
11. Nerites Receives NIH Grant to Study Novel Treatment for Preventing Dangerous Bacterial Infections on Urinary Stents and Catheters
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:2/24/2017)... ... February 24, 2017 , ... Rosica ... in thought leadership , media relations, social media, content marketing and SEO, ... be powered through Act-On, an intuitive marketing automation platform. , Rosica will now ...
(Date:2/23/2017)... ... 23, 2017 , ... On February 22, 2017 the U.S. ... to withdraw previous guidance issued by the Obama Administration requiring schools to treat ... 2016 by the Obama Administration came in response to a growing number of ...
(Date:2/23/2017)... , ... February 23, 2017 , ... The American Cleft ... ACPA’s 74th Annual Meeting. KLS is a longtime supporter of the event. , ... exhibitor and Platinum Sponsor," said Dr. Bob Havlik, 2017 ACPA President. "KLS Martin has ...
(Date:2/23/2017)... ... February 23, 2017 , ... EBSCO Information Services ... Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) framework. The agreement allows purchasers ... (NHS) to search, order and purchase medical and healthcare-related content through GOBI ...
(Date:2/23/2017)... ... , ... ERT, a global data and technology company that ... leading clinical development service provider, has selected ERT’s Trial Oversight suite as its ... to an array of circumstances including the use of multiple data capture modalities ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:2/24/2017)... DUBLIN , Feb 24, 2017 Research ... Drugs Price Analysis and Strategies - 2016" report to their ... The ... provides drug pricing data and benchmarks in the global Urinary Incontinence ... What are the key drugs marketed for Urinary Incontinence ...
(Date:2/23/2017)... -- Cogentix Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ: CGNT), a medical device company ... the urology market, will release financial results for the ... before the market open on Thursday, March 9, 2017. ... call and webcast to discuss its financial results the ... a.m. Eastern Time (10:00 a.m. Central Time). Darin ...
(Date:2/23/2017)... 23, 2017 Research and Markets has announced ... Strategies - 2016" report to their offering. ... The latest research Oesophageal Cancer ... and benchmarks in the global Oesophageal Cancer market. The ... are the key drugs marketed for Oesophageal Cancer and their clinical ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: