Navigation Links
Novel mathematical model predicts new wave of drug-resistant HIV infections in San Francisco
Date:2/17/2008

A mathematical model shows that a new wave of drug-resistant HIV is rising among among men in San Francisco who have sex with men and that this trend will continue over the next few years, according to a new study from the UCLA AIDS Institute.

At the same time, the evolution of drug-resistant HIV may have actually reduced the severity of the city's epidemic, saving many men from becoming infected.

The model and its results were unveiled today by UCLA biomathematics professor Sally Blower, director of the Biomedical Modeling Center at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, during a session on drug-resistant diseases at the annual American Association for the Advancement of Science conference in Boston.

"Our amplification cascade model has been validated by our reconstructions and can now be used to design novel and effective health policies for controlling single-, dual- and triple-class resistant strains of HIV in both resource-rich and resource-constrained countries," said Blower, who is also a member of the UCLA AIDS Institute.

The model enabled the researchers to reconstruct the epidemic's past and predict its future by calculating the evolution of several classes of drug-resistant HIV strains in San Francisco.

The research relied on a novel multi-strain mathematical model called the Amplification Cascade Model to examine the rise between 1987 and 2007 of HIV strains resistant to the three major classes of drugs -- nucleosides (NRTIs), nonnucleosides (NNRTIs) and protease inhibitors (PIs). The model took into account three interacting processes -- transmitted, acquired and amplified resistance -- the last of which refers to amplification of drug-resistant strains in HIV-positive people due to the repeated use of multiple-treatment drug regimens.

The study tracked uninfected individuals; newly infected people in the primary stage of infection; chronically infected individuals who were not yet eligible for treatment; chronically infected people who remained untreated, though eligible for it; and patients under treatment.

Researchers found complex waves of rising and falling single-, dual- and triple-class drug-resistant HIV strains over 20 years, with more complex patterns continuing to evolve.

The model predicts that resistance to NRTIs will decline substantially and PI resistance will fall slightly through 2012, and that resistance to NNRTIs will rise over the next five years and then begin falling.

Although strains with dual- and triple-class resistance will be transmitted, they will be far less potent than wild-type HIV strains -- those strains that have not developed drug-resistant mutations and remain sensitive to all classes of drugs.

Most surprising of all, the evolution of drug-resistant HIV strains has substantially reduced the severity of the San Francisco AIDS epidemic because the strains that have emerged have become less infectious than the wild-type strains.


'/>"/>

Contact: Enrique Rivero
erivero@mednet.ucla.edu
310-794-2273
University of California - Los Angeles
Source:Eurekalert

Related medicine news :

1. Novel approach strips staph of virulence
2. UCSD research team identifies novel anticancer drug from the sea
3. Novel compound may lessen heart attack damage
4. Novel molecules developed at UB can boost vaccine potency
5. Novel small molecule therapy shows benefit for anemic patients via hydration of red blood cells
6. Novel vaccine concept developed by scientists at the Wistar Institute
7. Tibotec Pharmaceuticals a Respectful Partner to HIV Community in Pricing of Novel New HIV NNRTI, INTELENCE
8. Millennium and Harvard Medical School Sign Cooperative Agreement for Research in Novel Field of Cancer Biology
9. Statement by AARP CEO Bill Novelli on President Bushs State of the Union
10. New method enables design, production of extremely novel drugs
11. Nerites Receives NIH Grant to Study Novel Treatment for Preventing Dangerous Bacterial Infections on Urinary Stents and Catheters
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:4/29/2016)... ... ... On Tuesday, April 26, 2016 members of the HomeTown Health network, a ... Deal on SB 258, the “Rural Health Care Relief” Bill. , The bill, which ... to individuals and corporations which donate directly to a “rural hospital” in Georgia, and ...
(Date:4/29/2016)... ... April 29, 2016 , ... The White House ... their loans, more information about their loan terms and accounts, and more protections ... debt, including federal and private loans, has reached $1.3 trillion, with 43 million ...
(Date:4/29/2016)... ... April 29, 2016 , ... A ... born with severe congenital diaphragmatic hernia have better survival rates if surgery is ... hernia (CDH)—a condition where the diaphragm fails to form completely, letting abdominal organs ...
(Date:4/29/2016)... ... 2016 , ... Mobility Designed is redefining mobility with their patent pending ... Crutch evenly distributes body weight from the elbow to the forearm. In consumer ... than with other crutches. , Co-founders Max and Liliana Younger were inspired to design ...
(Date:4/29/2016)... (PRWEB) , ... April 29, 2016 , ... Melanoma is the deadliest type of skin ... blame for the majority of skin cancer deaths. More than 10,000 people are expected to ... at diagnosis is 62, it is the one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers in ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:4/28/2016)... , April 28, 2016 Oramed Pharmaceuticals ... clinical-stage pharmaceutical company focused on the development of oral drug ... the upcoming PIONEERS 2016 conference, presented by Joseph Gunnar ... in New York . Nadav Kidron ... the conference. Presentation Details:   ...
(Date:4/28/2016)... New market research titled ... report that provides an overview of the Osteoarthritis,s ... identifying new targets and MOAs to produce first-in-class ... in this H1 2016 Osteoarthritis Pipeline report include ... Abiogen Pharma S.p.A., Ablynx NV, Achelios Therapeutics, Inc., ...
(Date:4/27/2016)... , April 27, 2016   ... 42% Growth in Recurring Consumable Sales  Clinical ... Mauna Kea Technologies (Euronext: MKEA, OTCQX: MKEAY) inventor of ... its sales for the first quarter ended March 31, ... the execution of its commercial strategy. First ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: