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Modeling Simulation Predicts Potential Negative Impact on U.S. Blood Supply if ESA Use Limited for Chemotherapy-Induced Anemia
Date:12/10/2007

RBC units transfused in ESA-treated patients to the number of RBC units that would be transfused if ESAs were discontinued or limited in the same population. The excess number of RBC units required if limiting ESA treatment in CIA patients was then contrasted with the available marginal blood supply from 2004.

Inputs to the model included: incident cases of CIA patients treated with an ESA; transfusion rates from clinical trials; and volume of RBC units required for ESA-treated and untreated patients. Estimates were developed for multiple scenarios highlighting various levels of ESA reduction, and sensitivity analyses were conducted using a range of +/- 10 percent for each input parameter.

Study Results

Under the base case scenario, it was estimated that 492,002 CIA patients received a total of 372,809 RBC units despite ESA treatment. Additional estimates are as follows:

-- A 25% reduction in ESA use would require 18% of the marginal U.S.

blood supply (incremental RBC units transfused: 118,602 units;

sensitivity range: 63,030 -- 210,110 units).

-- A 50% reduction in ESA use would require 37% of the marginal U.S.

blood supply (incremental demand RBC units transfused: 237,203 units;

sensitivity range: 126,060 -- 420,220 units).

-- A 75% reduction in ESA use would require 55% of the marginal U.S.

blood supply (incremental demand RBC units transfused: 355,805 units;

sensitivity range: 189,089 -- 630,330 units).

-- Total cessation of ESA use could exceed the U.S. blood supply

(incremental RBC units transfused: 474,407 units; sensitivity range:

252,119 -- 840,441 units).

The added pressure on the blood supply does not consider additional exacerbations due to regional and seasonal variation in the number of available units, as well as donation frequency variations.

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SOURCE Ortho Biotech Products, L.P.
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