Modeling Simulation Predicts Potential Negative Impact on U.S. Blood Supply if ESA Use Limited for Chemotherapy-Indu...( ATLANTA Dec. 10 /- A new analysis...),Health

ATLANTA, Dec. 10 /PRNewswire/ -- A new analysis presented today at the American Society of Hematology (ASH) 49th Annual Meeting and Exposition predicts that limiting the use of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) for chemotherapy-induced anemia (CIA) would place considerable pressure on the available marginal U.S. blood supply. Using a modeling simulation technique that allowed for varying the magnitude of reduction in ESA use, findings suggested that even at the lowest reduction evaluated, 25 percent, there was a substantial impact on the available marginal blood supply.

"The nation's blood supply is a limited resource and this analysis underscores the vulnerability of the situation," said Francis Vekeman, M.A., Economist, Groupe d'analyse, Ltee, and lead author of the new analysis. "Given the small margin between usable blood and transfusion demand, understanding the impact of limiting ESA use in cancer chemotherapy patients is essential. Over the last 18 years, a large body of scientific data has demonstrated the ability of ESAs to help patients avoid blood transfusions."

Background

Between 1987 and 1997, the demand for allogeneic blood [whole blood and packed red blood count (RBC)] in the U.S. decreased due to safety concerns. In the same period, the blood supply also decreased, resulting in a 48 percent reduction in the margin between available supply and demand. Despite increases in both supply and demand by 2004, the last year data was available, the margin further declined to only 6.1 percent (allogeneic blood collection of 14.8 million units and transfusion at 13.9 million units). After screening, 240,000 units were rejected leaving a margin of only 648,000 units available, or 4.5 percent of the supply.

Study Methodology

The primary purpose of the study was to estimate the impact of limiting the use of ESAs for CIA patients on the U.S. blood supply.

A modeling simulation was used to compare the number of
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