The number of adults aged 65 and over is expected to increase to 72 million by 2030 (from 25 million in 1980). Meanwhile, the number of Americans in a minority group is expected to increase to 157 million in 2030 (up from 46 million in 1980).
The authors of this study used data from a national health database to project rates of future cancer diagnoses.
According to the projections, between 2010 and 2030, total incidence of all cancers will increase by 45 percent, from 1.6 million to 2.3 million, though the total population will increase by only 19 percent.
Cancer incidence is expected to increase 67 percent in the older population vs. 11 percent in the younger age group and to double among minorities, compared with a 31 percent increase among whites.
Hispanics will experience the most dramatic rise in cancer incidence, 142 percent, said study author Dr. Benjamin Smith, chief of radiation oncology at Wilford Hall Medical Center, located at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio, Texas. Smith is also adjunct assistant professor in the department of radiation oncology at M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, in Houston.
Cancers with poor outcomes, namely liver, stomach, pancreatic and lung, are expected to be among the fastest-growing cancer types as the population changes.
"These are projections and the absolute numbers may, in fact, be slightly higher than what ends up happening," Raghavan said. "What is absolutely clear is that the trends are very strong and are inescapable.
The authors advocated more screening and implementation of prevention efforts such as vaccinating for the hepatitis B virus (linked to liver cancer) and human papilloma viruses (the main cause of cervical cancer), reducing tobacco and alcohol use and removing polyps in the colon.
ASCO's policy statement vowed to work towards eliminating cancer
All rights reserved