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Migratory birds, domestic poultry and avian influenza
Date:4/5/2011

nfection by using a model to trace their path along flyways. "Patches" represent 4 locations: breeding and wintering sites, and layovers on outgoing and return routes where birds stop to rest and feed. The migration flyway is expressed mathematically by a one-dimensional closed curve starting and ending at the breeding patch. Reaction-advection equations describe the migration of birds along this flight path.

The quantity of birds susceptible to infection is calculated by determining the density of susceptible birds along the flying route. The time of journey for the susceptible birds is the distance between each patch divided by their mean flight velocity. In-flight mortalities are also accounted for in the equation. Assuming that migratory birds can only contract the virus while in patches (and not while in transit), the probability of infection of a bird is determined based on its contact rate with infected migratory birds and infected poultry, and time spent in a patch. The time of stay depends on several factors, such as the rate at which birds enter the patch, length and duration of their journey, energy consumed on their incoming flight, and the nourishment required to proceed.

The model factors in the observation that birds encounter very different conditions at different stages on their migration route. In reality, migratory birds have more than a single stopover in their fall and spring routes; these are lumped together as one each for the sake of simplicity. The population of poultry on each patch is assumed to be a constant, as is the length of the flyway and average flight velocity.

Using their model, the authors analyze the dynamics of migratory Common Teals and their interaction with farmed poultry in the Poyang Lake area of China. Their simulations demonstrate that the arrival of migratory birds in winter can introduce avian influenza to poultry in disease-free periods. Once the flu becomes endemic in the wintering loca

 Contact: Karthika Muthukumaraswamy karthika@siam.org 267-350-6383 Society for Industrial and Applied MathematicsSource:Eurekalert 0GOOD

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