Navigation Links
Measuring the uncertainties of pandemic influenza
Date:7/2/2012

A major collaboration between US research centers has highlighted three factors that could ultimately determine whether an outbreak of influenza becomes a serious epidemic that threatens national health. The research suggests that the numbers in current response plans could be out by a factor of two or more depending on the characteristics of the particular pandemic influenza.

Researchers from Argonne, Los Alamos, and Sandia National Laboratories, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, have used sensitivity analysis to uncover the most important disease characteristics pertaining to the spread of infection with an influenza virus. These are: the fraction of the transmission that occurs prior to symptoms, the reproductive number, and the length of each disease stage. Their use of data from past pandemics as well as information on potential viral evolution demonstrates that current response planning may underestimate the pandemic consequences significantly.

"It has become critical to assess the potential range of consequences of a pandemic influenza outbreak given the uncertainty about its disease characteristics while investigating risks and mitigation strategies of vaccines, antiviral drugs, and social distancing measures," explains Jeanne Fair of Los Alamos National Laboratory and her colleagues. The team has used a simulation model and rigorous experimental design with sensitivity analysis to show the extremes of consequences of a potential pandemic outbreak in the USA. The simulation incorporates uncertainty in the evolution and characteristics of the pathogen and differences in the epidemic response, and uncertainties in the sociological response to a pandemic.

Although we are yet to face an H5N1 avian influenza epidemic, the team suggests that they have nevertheless been able to develop a worst-case scenario for all possibilities considering mortality rates and infectiousness based on current knowledge and historical patte
'/>"/>

Contact: Jeanne M. Fair
jmfair@lanl.gov
Inderscience Publishers
Source:Eurekalert

Page: 1 2

Related medicine news :

1. Once-Banned Bird Flu Study Suggests Pandemic Threat Is Real
2. Pandemic H1N1 Flu Killed Far More Than Reported: Study
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:12/17/2014)... -- Expectant parents should leave prenatal picture-taking to medical ... Use of ultrasound imaging and heartbeat monitors to get ... agency warns. "Although there is a lack ... and heartbeat monitors, prudent use of these devices by ... FDA biomedical engineer, said in an agency news release. ...
(Date:12/17/2014)... HealthDay Reporter , TUESDAY, Dec. 16, ... America, and work commitment is a big reason why, new ... said Dr. Mathias Basner, an assistant professor of sleep and ... of Medicine. A time-use survey of nearly 125,000 Americans, ... main activity exchanged for sleep. Short sleepers -- those who ...
(Date:12/15/2014)... 15, 2014 South Florida’s leading urgent care ... can be a daze of hassle, hustle, and bustle that ... decking halls, to burns when making special meals and heartburn ... can happen at any time. To prevent this season of ... made a list of helpful and healthful holiday tips to ...
(Date:12/15/2014)... News) -- Expert pilots process visual information more efficiently ... better decisions during landings, a new study shows. ... pilots to master, and 36 percent of all airplane ... final approach and landing. Researchers monitored the brain ... pilots while they were at the controls of a ...
(Date:12/15/2014)... 15, 2014 At the leading, long-established ... AutismOne and Focus Autism will welcome ... research on the effects of toxins to children’s health, ... information. , Luminaries such as Dr. Lucija Tomljenovic ... with esteemed, credentialed colleagues of the United States to ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):Health News:FDA Warns Against Fetal 'Keepsake' Videos 2Health News:Work Steals Valuable Sleep Time, Study Finds 2Health News:Work Steals Valuable Sleep Time, Study Finds 3Health News:MD Now Urgent Care Presents Healthy Holiday Tips 2Health News:MD Now Urgent Care Presents Healthy Holiday Tips 3Health News:Study Shows Why Expert Pilots Are Experts 2Health News:AutismOne and Focus Autism Collaborate on Scientific Conference; International Group of Researchers to Present in Chicago, May 2015 2Health News:AutismOne and Focus Autism Collaborate on Scientific Conference; International Group of Researchers to Present in Chicago, May 2015 3
... 26 As the voice of the global ... Organizations (ACRO) had the honor of presenting before ... 26th, 2009 in Tokyo. ACRO Chair Derek Winstanly, ... and ACRO Executive Director Douglas Peddicord, Ph.D. addressed ...
... (PHILADELPHIA) Researchers from Thomas Jefferson University have identified ... in the growth and migration of prostate cancer cells, ... in the American Journal of Pathology . , ... of the protein when compared to normal prostate cells, ...
... Feb. 26 On Monday, March 2, the ... to become "The Healthiest Company in Green Bay." The firm ... them at that goal.The 30-person agency is collaborating with Health ... ( www.hatwork.com ). The title of "Healthiest Company in Green ...
... Physicians Offers Secure Message Capability to Facilitate ... Human Science, Inc. (HSI), a Rockville ... launch of an innovative software service that ... care in a secure environment. PatientCarenet.Org ...
... monitoring, and biostatistics for several early-stage clinical trials and registries ... ... Clinipace , a growing clinical research solutions company, today announced that ... aggregate, more than $2.8 million., , ,With a focus on emerging ...
... Feb. 26 Orthopaedic surgeon Michael L. Parks, MD, ... American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons (AAOS) ( ... Vegas. He will serve the Academy as Member-at-Large ... specializes in the reconstruction of arthritic conditions affecting the ...
Cached Medicine News:Health News:ACRO Presents at Japan CRO Association Commemorative Symposium 2Health News:Proepithelin encourages cell growth and migration in prostate cancer 2Health News:Arketype to Become Green Bay's Healthiest Company in One Year -- Wanna Bet? 2Health News:Arketype to Become Green Bay's Healthiest Company in One Year -- Wanna Bet? 3Health News:Human Science, Inc. Launches PatientCarenet.Org 2Health News:Human Science, Inc. Launches PatientCarenet.Org 3Health News:Clinipace Recently Awarded $2.8 Million to Manage Three New Clinical Projects 2Health News:Michael L. Parks, MD, Elected to the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons Board of Directors 2
(Date:12/15/2014)... , Dec. 15, 2014 As medical device ... Product Labeling) markup language standard, content teams have a ... skills to work with the standard. Starting January 2015, ... three webinars on the benefits and the critical aspects ... will be facilitated by Howard Shatz , DCL,s ...
(Date:12/15/2014)... MINNEAPOLIS , Dec. 15, 2014   ... ), one of the nation,s largest and most ... of its business units, DaVita Clinical Research ... capabilities to further expand its extensive clinical research ... chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage renal disease ...
(Date:12/15/2014)... LONDON and BOSTON , ... the leading GPCR structure-guided drug discovery and development company, ... patents in the United States ... of these patents in the US significantly strengthens the ... the major pharmaceutical markets. The suite of ...
Breaking Medicine Technology:Data Conversion Laboratory Helping Life Sciences Content Producers Understand the Impact and Benefits of Structured Product Labeling 2Data Conversion Laboratory Helping Life Sciences Content Producers Understand the Impact and Benefits of Structured Product Labeling 3DaVita Clinical Research and HealthCare Partners Clinical Research to Merge and Expand Clinical Trials and Data Analytics Capabilities 2DaVita Clinical Research and HealthCare Partners Clinical Research to Merge and Expand Clinical Trials and Data Analytics Capabilities 3DaVita Clinical Research and HealthCare Partners Clinical Research to Merge and Expand Clinical Trials and Data Analytics Capabilities 4Heptares Extends Global Patent Protection for GPCR-Focused Drug Discovery Platform With Grant of Core Patents in the United States 2
... proud to announce its conference keynote speakers include: Centers ... CBS Evening News Anchor Katie Couric; U.S. ... U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke. Each will address ... leaders in Washington, D.C. October 18-20 during AdvaMed ...
... Arlington Medical Resources (AMR), a provider of premier ... finds that more than half of all European inpatients ... Sanofi-Aventis,s Clexane (marketed as Lovenox in the U.S. and ... The European Hospital Anticoagulant Market Guide is a ...
Cached Medicine Technology:AdvaMed 2010 Keynote Speakers Announced 2AdvaMed 2010 Keynote Speakers Announced 3European Hospital Anticoagulant Market Dominated by Sanofi-Aventis's Clexane 2
... Pulse Oximeters are high performance, easy-to-use ... proven signal processing to track even ... with Oxismart Advanced Signal Processing and ... identify electronic and optical noise, as ...
The Model 5340 is intended for continuous pulse oximetry and has visual and audible alarms to aid with patient monitoring....
The Model 340DT is a new desk top pulse oximeter that was designed for continuous pulse oximetry and has visual and audible alarms to aid with patient monitoring....
... The Model 130 has expanded memory capabilities ... has memory to retain oxygen saturation and pulse ... modes to best suit your needs:, ,1. ... minutes of information for a single patient, making ...
Medicine Products: