Navigation Links
Measuring the uncertainties of pandemic influenza
Date:7/2/2012

A major collaboration between US research centers has highlighted three factors that could ultimately determine whether an outbreak of influenza becomes a serious epidemic that threatens national health. The research suggests that the numbers in current response plans could be out by a factor of two or more depending on the characteristics of the particular pandemic influenza.

Researchers from Argonne, Los Alamos, and Sandia National Laboratories, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, have used sensitivity analysis to uncover the most important disease characteristics pertaining to the spread of infection with an influenza virus. These are: the fraction of the transmission that occurs prior to symptoms, the reproductive number, and the length of each disease stage. Their use of data from past pandemics as well as information on potential viral evolution demonstrates that current response planning may underestimate the pandemic consequences significantly.

"It has become critical to assess the potential range of consequences of a pandemic influenza outbreak given the uncertainty about its disease characteristics while investigating risks and mitigation strategies of vaccines, antiviral drugs, and social distancing measures," explains Jeanne Fair of Los Alamos National Laboratory and her colleagues. The team has used a simulation model and rigorous experimental design with sensitivity analysis to show the extremes of consequences of a potential pandemic outbreak in the USA. The simulation incorporates uncertainty in the evolution and characteristics of the pathogen and differences in the epidemic response, and uncertainties in the sociological response to a pandemic.

Although we are yet to face an H5N1 avian influenza epidemic, the team suggests that they have nevertheless been able to develop a worst-case scenario for all possibilities considering mortality rates and infectiousness based on current knowledge and historical patte
'/>"/>

Contact: Jeanne M. Fair
jmfair@lanl.gov
Inderscience Publishers
Source:Eurekalert

Page: 1 2

Related medicine news :

1. Once-Banned Bird Flu Study Suggests Pandemic Threat Is Real
2. Pandemic H1N1 Flu Killed Far More Than Reported: Study
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:8/3/2015)... ... August 03, 2015 , ... Representatives with Health Food ... its website. , “Our ‘Ask a Nutritionist’ feature on our website is a free ... said Liza Brisk, nutritionist and spokeswoman for Health Food Grocers. , Health Food Grocers’ ...
(Date:8/3/2015)... ... August 03, 2015 , ... ... Journal Constitution, the new Lifetime reality series, “Atlanta Plastic” is getting attention for ... receives plastic surgery, with its predominantly African-American cast of doctors and patients. Beverly ...
(Date:8/3/2015)... , ... August 03, 2015 , ... ... of Appeals ruled in favor of the firm’s client Rebecca Hamsher, deciding that ... Medical Center must reimburse benefits for Hamsher’s residential treatment for bulimia, depression and ...
(Date:8/3/2015)... ... August 03, 2015 , ... Novation, the ... to offer pharmacogenetic lab testing and precision medicine solutions that can help pharmacists ... , Annually, more than 8.6 million adverse drug events are reported in the ...
(Date:8/3/2015)... CA (PRWEB) , ... August 03, 2015 , ... ... services to help patients in need. Most people know that general health emergencies, such ... Unfortunately, a fewer amount of people know where to turn to during a dental ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):Health News:Health Food Grocers Launches "Ask a Nutritionist" Service 2Health News:Health Food Grocers Launches "Ask a Nutritionist" Service 3Health News:Article on Lifetime’s New “Atlanta Plastic” Reality Series Underlines the Diversity of Today’s Plastic Surgery Patients, Says Plastic Surgeon Dr. J 2Health News:Article on Lifetime’s New “Atlanta Plastic” Reality Series Underlines the Diversity of Today’s Plastic Surgery Patients, Says Plastic Surgeon Dr. J 3Health News:Kantor & Kantor Announces North Cypress Medical Center Must Reimburse Benefits for Mental Health Treatment 2Health News:Kantor & Kantor Announces North Cypress Medical Center Must Reimburse Benefits for Mental Health Treatment 3Health News:Novation Awards Genelex First Group Purchasing Agreement for Pharmacogenetic Testing and Precision Medicine Software 2Health News:Novation Awards Genelex First Group Purchasing Agreement for Pharmacogenetic Testing and Precision Medicine Software 3Health News:Los Angeles Dental Practice, Sunset Plaza Dental, Now Offers Emergency Dental Services 2Health News:Los Angeles Dental Practice, Sunset Plaza Dental, Now Offers Emergency Dental Services 3
... ... with HCG Diet Drops , ... 14, 2010 -- It is no secret that obesity has reached epidemic proportions in our country. ... as a result of the extra pounds. , , ,But thanks to the HCG ...
... ... accident claims service National Accident Helpline warns of the dangers of cycling injuries and urges caution ... (PRWEB) June 14, ... to prevent cycling injuries now the improving weather is seeing an increasing number of people take ...
... ... the amazing true tale of one man,s journey of growing up in poverty ... a college degree. He decided to make a difference in the lives ... numerous local and national awards for his community work. He took his ...
... ... software is pleased to welcome Click2Scan Ltd. a document scanning specialist, and document management software ... ... Ltd. www.click2scan.co.uk with offices in Wiltshire and London is one of the fastest ...
... ... Jazz Festival, , ... Newport, R.I. (PRWEB) June 14, 2010 -- New Festival Productions today announced that discounted ... the 2010 CareFusion Newport Jazz Festival in Newport, RI, August 6-8. Generously donated by ...
... ... in cosmetic, facial plastic, and reconstructive surgery, understands that women need options. With an ... an alternative method to breast implant surgery. Natural breast augmentation allows patients the opportunity ... ...
Cached Medicine News:Health News:Thousands Drop The Weight For Good with HCG Diet Drops 2Health News:Break The Injury Cycle, Says National Accident Helpline 2Health News:Celebrated Father Overcame Poverty and Mental Illness to Help His Son Earn a Scholarship to Harvard 2Health News:FileHold Document Management Software welcomes Click2ScanLtd. as a Value Added Re-sellers in the UK 2Health News:CareFusion Newport Jazz Festival Discounts Tickets for Health Care Practitioners 2Health News:Del Mar Plastic Surgeon Dr. Maurice Sherman Now Offering Natural Breast Implant Alternatives 2
(Date:8/3/2015)...  Sage Analytics ( www.sageanalytics.com ), the developers of ... systems, announced its sponsorship of the California Cannabis Industry ... number of tickets are available for groups or individuals ... while enjoying an open bar, buffet dinner and hors ... Bay at sunset. With the legislative session ...
(Date:8/3/2015)...  Depomed, Inc. (NASDAQ: DEPO ) ("Depomed" or ... HZNP ) ("Horizon") announcement that it intends to ... a record date to determine the shareholders eligible to ... Board will review the request when it is received. ... the information required under Depomed,s bylaws, the Depomed Board ...
(Date:8/3/2015)... , August 3, 2015 ... by Persistence Market Research "Global Market Study on ... to Witness Highest Growth by 2022", the global physiotherapy ... Bn by the end of 2015 and is expected ... 2015 to 2022, to account for US$23.7 Bn by ...
Breaking Medicine Technology:Sage Analytics Sponsors California Cannabis Industry Association Bay Area Cruise FUNdraiser 2Depomed Comments on Horizon Pharma Announcement 2Depomed Comments on Horizon Pharma Announcement 3Depomed Comments on Horizon Pharma Announcement 4Depomed Comments on Horizon Pharma Announcement 5Depomed Comments on Horizon Pharma Announcement 6Global Physiotherapy Equipment Market Will Reach US$ 23.7 Billion by 2022: Persistence Market Research 2Global Physiotherapy Equipment Market Will Reach US$ 23.7 Billion by 2022: Persistence Market Research 3Global Physiotherapy Equipment Market Will Reach US$ 23.7 Billion by 2022: Persistence Market Research 4
... Aug. 24 GE Healthcare is proud to ... is now included in the company,s ecomagination(SM) campaign. ... contrast media, offers significant advantages over traditional glass ... healthcare workers who administer contrast media to patients, ...
... Aug. 24 Regenicin, Inc. ... biotechnology company, announced today that Dr. Joseph Rubinfeld, one of ... agreed to join the company,s board of directors. Dr. Rubinfeld ... PermaDerm™, Regenicin,s proprietary autologous cultured skin ...
Cached Medicine Technology:+PLUSPAK (polymer bottle) Packaging Receives GE's Distinguished ecomagination(SM) Approval 2+PLUSPAK (polymer bottle) Packaging Receives GE's Distinguished ecomagination(SM) Approval 3Regenicin Appoints Amgen Co-founder Dr. Joseph Rubinfeld to Board of Directors 2
Prognosis / Patient Management. HIV-1 Viral Load Assay. NucliSens HIV-1 QT covers the entire dynamic range of viral load testing from a single patient sample, without reflex testing or thermalcycli...
EIA for Donor Screening. Synthetic peptide Enzyme Immunoassay (EIA) for the detection of antibodies to Human Immunodeficiency Virus Types 1 and/or 2,(HIV-1 and HIV-2) in human serum, plasma or ca...
... OraQuick ADVANCE Rapid HIV-1/2 ... single-use, qualitative immunoassay to ... Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 ... (HIV-2) in oral fluid, ...
... performance benefits of TiMAX material have been applied ... Greater strength and an ultra-low profile combine to ... the lower extremity. , ,This complete set of ... Plate , Fibula Composite Plate ...
Medicine Products: