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K-State Researchers Predict That an Outbreak of Foot-And-Mouth Disease Could Cost Kansas Nearly a Billion Dollars
Date:11/27/2007

were there an intentional release.

Generally, researchers found that the greater the number of animals infected in an operation, the longer an outbreak would last and the more it would likely spread -- all directly correlating to the level of economic ruin.

Under the small cow-calf scenario, researchers predicted that 126,000 head of livestock would have to be destroyed and that a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak would last 29 days. In the medium-sized operation, those numbers went up to 407,000 animals and 39 days. In the scenario where five large feedlots were exposed at the same time, researchers predicted that 1.7 million head of livestock would have to be destroyed and that an outbreak would last nearly three months.

From smallest to largest operation, that translated into regional economic losses of $23 million, $140 million and $685 million, respectively. For the state of Kansas as a whole, those numbers climb to $36 million, $199 million and $945 million.

"Contagious foreign animal diseases like foot-and-mouth are of considerable alarm," Schroeder said, citing the impact of globalization, extensive international travel, outbreaks in other countries and heightened concerns about bioterrorism.

"Kansas produces about 1.5 million calves, markets 5.5 million head of fed cattle, and slaughters 7.5 million head of cattle annually. The large commercial cattle feedlot and beef packing industries together bring more than 100,000 head of cattle per week on average into the state for feeding or processing," Schroeder said. "Such large volumes of livestock movement provide avenues for contagious animal disease to spread."

Leatherman estimated the statewide impacts of foot-and-mouth for this study and said the effects of an outbreak would go way beyond producers.

"This study tells us what the overall stake of the region and state has in preventing such an occurrence," he said. "It isn't just farmers, ranchers,
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SOURCE Kansas State University
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