-- Despite problems with the pension system, the financial status of older
people will improve over time. One report (Knickman and Snell, 2002)
projected that the proportion of older people who would be extremely
likely to use Medicaid to pay for a significant period of long-term
care would decline from 45 percent in 2000 to 29 percent in 2030.
-- Under the current system, most older people will not have private
long-term care insurance in the future. The Wiener, Illston and Hanley
(1994) study projected that no more than 20 percent of older people
would have private long-term care insurance in 2018 because of its high
The Compendium also pointed out limitations with current projection models. For example, they do not address the substitutability of services, such as home care and assisted living facilities, for nursing home care. There is also a lack of data on which to determine the impact of price changes on the use of services or "price elasticity." And younger people with disabilities are not included as part of the projections, even though 22 percent of Medicaid nursing home expenditures in 2003 were for people under age 65.
"This issue on how we will fund future long-term care has huge implications for the seniors housing and care industry, and its leaders need to work closely with government and research communities to craft on-going, relevant research, especially in those areas that have been lacking in previous studies," said Anthony J. Mullen, senior fellow for NIC, partner with Royal Star Properties, and one of the leading researchers and analysts in the seniors housing and care industry. "In addition to full micro-simulation models, stakeholders also need to develop simpler projection models that allow for easier input of 'expert opinion.' And the results of government-funded projection models should be more publicly available."
|SOURCE National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & CareIndustry|
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