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Insights on Paying for Boomers' Care Needs in 20-40 Years Helped by New Report
Date:3/27/2008

g-Term Care Financing Model. Marc P. Freiman, Ph.D., and David Brown are co-authors of the report.

Wiener pointed out several significant findings from the research that formed the Compendium:

-- The need for long-term care is a "normal" life experience. According to

a study by Kemper, Komisar and Alecxih (2005/2006) among those turning

65 now, nearly 70 percent will need some form of long-term care before

they die, and 20 percent will need it for more than five years. This

includes informal care, paid home care, nursing home care and assisted

living facility care.

-- The number of people with disabilities is likely to increase

substantially, even if disability rates fall. A recent study from

Johnson, Toomey and Wiener (2007) projected that the number of older

people with disabilities will grow from 10 million in 2000 to between

15.1 million and 24.6 million in 2040. As such, policymakers cannot

assume that declines in disability rates will solve the problem of

long-term care.

-- The demand for long-term care services is likely to at least double by

2040. The same Johnson, Toomey and Wiener study projected that the use

of paid home care will increase from 2.2 million people in 2000 to 3.9

million - 6.2 million in 2040, depending mostly on assumptions about

disability rates. During the same period, the number of older people

using nursing care will increase from 1.2 million to 2 million - 3.1

million.

-- The price of long-term care services will have a big impact on the

level of expenditures. A 1994 study from Wiener, Illston and Hanley

found that total expenditures (in 1993 dollars) for older people were

projected to be $134 billion in 2018 if prices increased 4.5 percent

annually; $215 billion, if prices increased 6.5 percent annua
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SOURCE National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & CareIndustry
Copyright©2008 PR Newswire.
All rights reserved

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