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How can policymakers cope with ambiguity?
Date:2/25/2010

Focusing on the remaining possibilities, Manski then shows what vaccination rate the planner should choose if he applies one of two decision criteria. Both criteria protect the planner from poor outcomes, but in different ways.

Manski became interested in vaccination policy in light of H1N1. However, he said his paper is more relatable to a disease that occurs in the same way every year, like the regular seasonal flu, measles or mumps. Not enough is known about H1N1 to have long-term observable data. "If we get H1N1 next year, what I did in this paper would become more relevant," he said.

Manski said the issue of making public policy with limited information applies to many other issues that are currently in the headlines.

"Take one that's very controversial today global warming," he said. "We have limited information on what exactly is happening. There's a lot of disagreement, and yet we have to make some decisions now."


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Contact: Hilary Hurd Anyaso
h-anyaso@northwestern.edu
847-491-4887
Northwestern University
Source:Eurekalert

Page: 1 2

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