Navigation Links
From herd immunity and complacency to group panic: How vaccine scares unfold
Date:4/5/2012

Worries over vaccine risks can allow preventable contagious diseases, such as measles and whooping cough, to make a comeback. A new study, published in PLoS Computational Biology, shows how to predict ways in which population vaccinating behavior might unfold during a vaccine scare.

"These findings might help in evaluating and developing global immunization programs and public health policy", said Professor Chris Bauch of the University of Guelph's Department of Mathematics and Statistics.

Prof. Bauch and Samit Bhattacharyya of the University of Utah developed a mathematical, "Behavior-incidence" model based on game theory and social learning. They tested the model with real data from two infamous vaccine scares in England and Wales: the 1970s pertussis outbreak and the measles-mumps-rubella vaccine scare in the 1990s. In both cases, the publication of alleged vaccine risks was followed by a media firestorm in national newspapers, television, and radio. In light of this, the fact that it took 4-5 years for vaccine uptake to bottom out was puzzling. They found that the model could explain the patterns of the vaccine scares very well, and could also be applied predictively to the data sets.

The model captured the interplay between disease dynamics and vaccination behaviour during those episodes. One of the theoretical dynamics for the model was the phenomenon known as "herd immunity"; an entire populationincluding unvaccinated individualscan be protected from infection by vaccinating only a certain percentage of the population. This suggests that immunization programs can be victims of their own success as past vaccinations drive disease incidence to such low levels that unvaccinated individuals feel no incentive to get vaccinated, creating ideal conditions for vaccine scares and thus future outbreaks.

Due to these conditions, as Prof. Bauch says, "Vaccine scares could become more common as eradication goals are approached for more vaccine-preventable diseases. Such models could help us predict how vaccine scares might unfold and assist in mitigation efforts."


'/>"/>

Contact: Dr. Chris T. Bauch
cbauch@uoguelph.ca
519-824-4120
Public Library of Science
Source:Eurekalert

Related medicine news :

1. Poorly understood cell plays role in immunity against the flu
2. Oncolytic viruses mediating anti-tumor immunity in human cancer patients
3. Wild Scottish sheep could help explain differences in immunity
4. With proper planning, selective rather than mass vaccination can provide immunity against flu
5. Moms HIV May Lower Babys Immunity to Other Diseases
6. Salivary glands as organs of immunity: New research makes oral immunization easier to swallow
7. Researchers identify novel pathophysiologic mechanism responsible for autoimmunity
8. Insight into HIV immunity may lead to vaccine
9. Heightened immunity to colds makes asthma flare-ups worse, U-M research shows
10. Targeting innate immunity in malaria
11. Drunk behavior -- a question of immunity
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:10/13/2017)... ... October 13, 2017 , ... ProVest Insurance ... greater Dallas, Miami, and Raleigh regions, is organizing an extended charity drive to ... and deadly chromosome abnormality. , After struggling since birth with several health challenges, ...
(Date:10/13/2017)... IL (PRWEB) , ... October 13, 2017 , ... ... which established the certification process to promote standards of excellence for the field ... Symposium, scheduled for March 22 – 25, 2018 in Orlando, Florida at the ...
(Date:10/13/2017)... , ... October 13, 2017 , ... Many families have ... many long-term care insurance companies have a waiver for care if the client has ... period, when the family pays for care, is often waived, so the benefits from ...
(Date:10/13/2017)... ... October 13, 2017 , ... ... viewers the lowdown on sciatica in a new episode of "Success Files," which ... current events and innovation and investigates each subject in-depth with passion and integrity. ...
(Date:10/12/2017)... ... October 12, 2017 , ... CitiDent and ... apnea using cutting-edge Oventus O2Vent technology. As many as 18 million Americans ... frequent cessation in breathing. Oral appliances can offer significant relief to about 75 ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:10/4/2017)... 4, 2017  South Korean-based healthcare product Development Company ... "cprCUBE" on Kickstarter. The device will educate the user ... with better efficiency compared to the dated and pricey ... on efficacy of the compression for a more informed ... goal to raise $5,000. ...
(Date:10/2/2017)... ORLANDO, Fla. , Oct. 2, 2017  AllianceRx ... services company formed by Walgreens and pharmacy benefit manager ... of its new brand, which included the unveiling of ... Fla. , as well as at a few ... introduces the new brand to patients, some of whom ...
(Date:9/27/2017)... , Sept. 27, 2017  Commended for their devotion to ... awards. Ranked as number one in the South Florida Business ... in Inc. 5000 yearly list, the national specialty pharmacy has ... Armando Bardisa will soon be honored by SFBJ as ... Set to receive his award in October, ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: