presented a slide entitled, "Evoltra - Global Blockbuster Potential"
(Evoltra is the brand name for clofarabine) showing an estimated total
market potential for clofarabine of $1.3 billion, excluding the
potential to treat solid tumors and autoimmune diseases.
ii) Genzyme's view of clofarabine, as discussed on the May 29, 2007
conference call with investors, is that it will reach $600 million of
revenue. Note that this view selectively incorporates only the
pediatric ALL, adult AML and MDS indications and was supplied by the
acquirer who just announced a very favorable purchase price for this
revenue stream.
iii) The lion's share of equity research price targets were far higher
than the $5.60 per share Genzyme offer price. UBS, the bank providing
the "fairness opinion" to the Board, had a $13 price target (132%
higher than the Genzyme Transaction). AG Edwards had a $9 price target
(61% higher than the Genzyme Transaction). Rodman and Renshaw had a
$12 price target (114% higher than the Genzyme Transaction). CIBC had
an $8 price target (43% higher than the Genzyme Transaction).
Oppenheimer had an $11 price target (96% higher than the Genzyme
Transaction). In fact, of all the coverage on the Street, we could
only find one price target below the $5.60 per share offered by Genzyme
(Fortis Bank).
Furthermore, in evaluating clofarabine, Elliott retained expert life
science consultants to complete their own, independent projections. Our
consultants conceded that while the current application to the EMEA would
likely require additional data (which has now been affirmed), they found
clofarabine to be a novel compound with "several potential advantages" over
current treatment options. Most importantly, they conservatively est
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